Markets In Everything: Medical Tourism in S. Korea

SINGAPORE: South Korea revised its law two months ago to allow hospitals to directly seek foreign patients. And this has reaped results, going by the latest statistics. In May, the number of foreigners who visited South Korea for medical treatment jumped by about 40% to 1,061, compared to a year ago. South Korea is the latest country to jump on the medical tourism bandwagon. Under the new law, hospitals can go all out to attract foreign patients, such as paying commissions to agents for referrals. The country has also eased visa regulations for overseas patients.

The global medical tourism sector is expected to grow by 15 to 20% every year. Asia's medical tourism market is worth over $5 billion and will attract over 6 million patients by 2012. South Korea plans to tap on this potential by marketing its accessibility and low cost. Brian Suh, researcher of Global Healthcare Business Centre, Korea Health Industry Development Institute, said: "Korea has good medical skills and easy accessibility, and there's no waiting time."

Top 10 Ways UK Rations Healthcare to Save Money

WALL STREET JOURNAL -- Speaking to the American Medical Association last month, President Obama waxed enthusiastic about countries that "spend less" than the U.S. on health care. He's right that many countries do, but what he doesn't want to explain is how they ration care to do it.

Take the United Kingdom, which is often praised for spending as little as half as much per capita on health care as the U.S. Credit for this cost containment goes in large part to the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE). Americans should understand how NICE works because under ObamaCare it will eventually be coming to a hospital near you. NICE has established the principle that the only way to control health-care costs is for this panel of medical high priests to dictate limits on certain kinds of care to certain classes of patients.

For example:

1. In March, NICE ruled against the use of two drugs, Lapatinib and Sutent, that prolong the life of those with certain forms of breast and stomach cancer.

2. This followed on a 2008 ruling against drugs -- including Sutent, which costs about $50,000 -- that would help terminally ill kidney-cancer patients.

3. In 2007, NICE restricted access to two drugs for macular degeneration, a cause of blindness. The drug Macugen was blocked outright. The other, Lucentis, was limited to a particular category of individuals with the disease, restricting it to about one in five sufferers. Even then, the drug was only approved for use in one eye, meaning those lucky enough to get it would still go blind in the other.

4. NICE has limited the use of Alzheimer's drugs, including Aricept, for patients in the early stages of the disease.

5. NICE rejected the use of Kineret, a drug for rheumatoid arthritis.

6. NICE rejected Avonex, which reduces the relapse rate in patients with multiple sclerosis;

7. NICE rejected Lenalidomide, which fights multiple myeloma.

NOTE: Private U.S. insurers often cover all, or at least portions, of the cost of many of these NICE-denied drugs.

NICE has also produced guidance that restrains certain surgical operations and treatments.

8. NICE has restrictions on fertility treatments.

9. NICE has restriction on procedures for back pain, including surgeries and steroid injections.

10. Several young U.K. women developed cervical cancer after being denied pap smears by a related health authority, the Cervical Screening Programme, which in order to reduce government health-care spending has refused the screens to women under age 25.

Bottom Line: Rationing = Lower cost = lower quality healthcare

HT: Bob Wright

Low Union=High Growth; High Union=Low Growth

From 2003 to 2008,the aggregate gross domestic product (GDP), in constant, chained 2000 dollars, for the states with the lowest share of workers under union monopoly control increased by a healthy 17.3%. In these 10 states, as of 2003 4.7% or less of private employees were forced to accept a union as their monopolybargaining agent. Meanwhile, the real GDP of the country as a whole grew by just 12.7%. And in the 10 states with the highest private-sector unionization, aggregate output grew by just 9.9% -- roughly 57% as much as in the lowest-union-density states (see chart above).

At a time when the country is struggling to pull out of a recession, Congress must not pass any legislation to promote union monopoly bargaining, which has a strong negative correlation with economic growth generally and with job growth in particular. Enactment of S.560 (the Senate version of the proposed anti-worker "card check" legislation) or its near equivalent would mean millions more employees hamstrung by wasteful union work rules and slowdowns that destroy good jobs.

Another consequence would be millions of additional workers forced to pay union dues or fees just to keep their jobs. Much of the confiscated cash would be funneled by Big Labor into efforts to elect even more anti-Right to Work, Tax & Spend politicians to Congress. That's why Right to Work members and supporters are preparing for an allout battle to ensure that not just S.560 and H.R.1409 themselves, but all phony card-check 'compromises,' are defeated in Congress this year and in 2010.

~National Right to Work Committee President Mark Mix

Canadian Couldn't Wait for Healthcare, Came to US

HT: Club for Growth

Minimum Wage Increase in Two Weeks Will Likely Send Teenage Jobless Rate to a Record High

The current (June) unemployment rate for teenagers of 24% (data here, paid subscription required for full access) is within 1/10 of a percent of the all-time high of the 24.1% teenage jobless rate set back in November and December of 1982 (see chart above). The teenage jobless rate of 24% is more than double the national average of 9.5% for June, and for African-American teens the unemployment rate was almost 38%.

When July employment data become available in early August, watch for the teenage unemployment rate to jump to a new record high. Reason?

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The federal minimum wage is set to increase later this month as the job market shows signs of further decay. The federal minimum wage will go to $7.25 an hour on July 24 from its current level of $6.55, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. The impact will be felt in 29 states, and many of them plan to match the federal minimum when it goes through.

Seven states already have laws mandating $7.25 minimum pay, while 14 states and Washington, D.C., exceed the new minimum. Employers are required to pay whichever is the highest: Federal or state.

Thomas Sowell on the "Affordable Housing Crusade"

Economist and Hoover Institution senior fellow Thomas Sowell, author of "The Housing Boom and Bust," discusses the economics of the housing boom on the National Review Online (NRO) TV program "Uncommon Knowledge."

Part 1.

Part 2.

Here are some excerpts from an NRO article by Thomas Sowell, based on his book:

Let us go back to square one to consider the empirical consequences of policies in the housing market. Politicians in Washington set out to solve a national problem that did not exist — a nationwide shortage of “affordable housing” — and have now left us with a problem whose existence is as undeniable as it is painful.

Few things blind human beings to the actual consequences of what they are doing like a heady feeling of self-righteousness during a crusade to smite the wicked and rescue the downtrodden. Statistical studies about disparities between blacks and whites in mortgage loan approval rates might be said to have “jump-started” the housing crusades that began in the 1990s.

Politicians and the media led this crusade, with many community activists following in their wake, much like scavengers, able to extract large sums of money from banks and other institutions by raising claims of discrimination, whose power to delay government approval of bank mergers and other business decisions made pay-offs to these activists the only prudent course for those accused.

With rich rewards available — politically, ideologically, and financially — from the “affordable housing” crusade, there were ample incentives to keep this crusade going for years.

HT: Club for Growth

6th Monthly Increase in Used Vehicle Price Index; June Jump Is Largest Monthly Increase On Record

MANHEIM CONSULTING -- Wholesale used vehicle prices moved significantly higher in June. With a reading of 114.1, the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index is now 5.8% above its year ago level. The adjusted increase in used vehicle values since the beginning of 2009 has been 16.4% (see chart above, click to enlarge, recessions are shaded).

From a previous Manheim Consulting report:

Some analysts have suggested that the rapid rise in wholesale used vehicle pricing is a precursor to an improvement in new vehicle sales and may even point to a recovery in the overall economy.

MP: The 5-point June increase in the Manheim used vehicle value index was the largest single monthly increase in the history of the index back to 1995, and marked the sixth consecutive monthly increase (every month this year), following decreases in 10 out of the previous 14 months (from October 2007 to December 2008).

The year-to-year increases in both May and June follow 17 consecutive months of consecutive year-to-year decreases (Nov. 2007 to April 2009).

Markets in Everything: Attic Junk Worth $1m

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A woman who inherited some Chinese carved jade from her father has scored the first $1 million appraisal from experts on the U.S. television program "Antiques Roadshow," the producers said on Monday. In a record for the show, four pieces of Chinese carved jade and celadon from the Chien Lung Dynasty (1736-1795), including a large bowl crafted for the Emperor, were given a conservative auction estimate of up to $1.07 million.

"For 13 years, we've been hoping to feature a million-dollar appraisal on 'Antiques Roadshow;' it's been our 'Great White Whale,'" executive producer Marsha Bemko said. "We're thrilled that, despite this year's slow economy, 'Roadshow' finally captured this elusive trophy," she said in a statement released by Boston-based production company WGBH, which licensed the format from the British show of the same name produced by the BBC.

On both shows, members of the public bring in items to be appraised by professionals in the hope of discovering that junk from the attic is actually a valuable treasure.

Markets in Everything: Stand and Fly for Cheap

UK TELEGRAPH -- The low-cost airline Ryanair would charge passengers less on "bar stools" with seat belts around their waists. Michael O'Leary, the chief executive, has already held talks with US plane manufacturer Boeing about designing an aircraft with standing room.

HT: Russell Harris

Markets in Everything: Live Bait Vending Machines

Spotted in Calhoun, TN near the Hiwassee River

HT: Eric Holcombe

Europeans Warn Against Government Healthcare

ASSOCIATED PRESS -- "I would warn Americans that once the government gets its nose into health care, it's hard to stop the dangerous effects later," said Valentin Petkantchin, of the Institut Economique Molinari in France. He said many private providers have been pushed out, forcing a dependence on an overstretched public system.

"The minute you make health insurance mandatory, people start overusing it," said Dr. Alphonse Crespo, an orthopedic surgeon and research director at Switzerland's Institut Constant de Rebecque. "If I have a cold, I might go see a doctor because I am already paying a health insurance premium."

Government influence in health care may also stifle innovation, other experts warn. Bureaucracies are slow to adopt new medical technologies. In Britain and Germany, even after new drugs are approved, access to them is complicated because independent agencies must decide if they are worth buying. When the breast cancer drug Herceptin was proven to be effective in 1998, it was available almost immediately in the U.S. But it took another four years for the U.K. to start buying it for British breast cancer patients.

"Government control of health care is not a panacea," said Philip Stevens, of International Policy Network, a London think-tank. "The U.S. health system is a bit of a mess, but based on what's happened in some countries in Europe, I'd be nervous about recommending more government involvement."

Real Healthcare Reform: Competition and Choice

The choice facing us now is not between Obama's plan for healthcare micromanaged by the government or doing nothing. Rather, it is a choice between government control, regulation and rationing on one hand, and free markets, choice and competition on the other. That is the real healthcare debate.

So what exactly would a free-market approach to reform look like? Quite simply, it relies on those time-tested building blocks of marketplace efficiency: competition and choice.

1. We need to move away from a system dominated by employer-provided health insurance and instead make health insurance personal and portable, controlled by the individual rather than government or an employer. Employment-based insurance hides much of the true cost of healthcare to consumers, thereby encouraging overconsumption. It also limits consumer choice, because employers get the final say in what type of insurance a worker will receive.

2. Changing from employer-provided to individually purchased insurance requires changing the tax treatment of health insurance. The current system excludes the value of employer-provided insurance from a worker's taxable income. However, a worker purchasing health insurance on his own must do so with after-tax dollars. This provides a significant financial reward for those who have employer-provided insurance. That should be reversed.

3. The other part of effective healthcare reform involves increasing competition among both insurers and health providers. Current regulations establish monopolies and cartels in both industries. Today, for example, people can't purchase health insurance across state lines. And because different states have very different regulations and mandates, costs can vary widely depending on where you live.

4. We also need to rethink medical licensing laws to encourage greater competition among providers. Nurse practitioners, physician assistants, midwives and other non-physician practitioners should have far greater ability to treat patients. We also should be encouraging such innovations in delivery as medical clinics in retail outlets.

~Michael Tanner, senior fellow at the Cato Institute, in the Sunday Los Angeles Times

HT: NCPA

Cartoon of the Day

Henry Payne of the Detroit News.

Jobless Claims as Percent of Labor Force Fall for 3rd Month in a Row, First Time Since Early 2006

With June employment data now available, the graph above of Initial Jobless Claims as a Percent of the Labor Force (1975-2009) has been updated to reflect the June labor force of 154,926,000 and the June average for initial unemployment claims (618,187.5 for the 4-week moving weekly average). That measure of initial jobless claims adjusted for the size of the labor force shows that we are currently above the levels of the last two recessions (1990-1991 and 2001), but still far below the levels of the previous three recessions in the mid-1970s and early 1980s.

For current initial jobless claims to reach the peaks of the 1970s and 1980s of about .60% (see chart above), we would have to have initial jobs claims today of about 929,000, or 50% above current levels. By this measure of the employment situation, it seems unlikely we'll get anywhere close to the recessionary levels of the 1970s and 1980s.

See related Scott Grannis post here.

Toyota Is The Most American Car Company

The Toyota Camry is more American than the Ford F-150, at least according to Cars.com's annual American-Made Index. The findings further muddy the Buy American debate that rages across the country. Toyota Motor Corp. also is the most American car company, according to the rankings of the index in terms of U.S. content in its cars and trucks.

~Today's Detroit News (HT: Lee Coppock)

CD post yesterday

Do those signs above mean that the "most American car" in the U.S. would be towed?

PJ O'Rourke: Why Politicians Love Trains, Hate Cars

There's something romantic about trains, but try getting the tracks to come to your house. When it comes time to unload the groceries, the romance of the train ends immediately.

Politicians love trains. Why? Because they can tell where the tracks go. They know where everybody's going. For policiticians it's all about control and power. Politicians hate cars because cars make people free. Not only free in the sense that they can go anywhere they want, which bugs politicians, but they can move out of the political districts that the politicians represent.

Politics itself is nothing more than an attempt to achieve power and prestige without merit. That's the definition of politics.

~P.J. O'Rourke on Reason.tv "Where Was The Government With Studebaker

Will D.C. Taxi Industry Become a Cartel Like NYC?

WASHINGTON EXAMINER -- The District’s open, all-are-invited taxicab industry is so saturated with drivers that the entire enterprise is threatened, according to a D.C. Council member who has filed a bill to cap the number of cabs allowed on city streets. Councilman Jim Graham introduced legislation to limit the number of taxicabs in D.C. through either a medallion system, like ones used in New York City and Chicago, or a certification system.

The soaring number of taxicab operators in D.C. -- roughly 8,000, most of whom own their own cars -- is a "pressing and urgent problem," Graham said. There are more licensed drivers in D.C. per capita than any place in the world, he said, and new applicants continue to take the required class, giving them access to the driver exam administered by the D.C. Taxicab Commission. A glut of drivers could jeopardize the chances of any cabbies making an adequate living, Graham has said.

New York City's medallion system, established in 1937 during the Great Depression in response to a ballooning number of unregulated taxis, artificially capped the number of cabs on the road, to what is now about 13,000. The medallion program, however, made it very difficult for the average New Yorker to join the industry as an owner: The May 2009 price for an individual medallion, those held by owner-operators, was $568,000. The cost of a corporate medallion was $744,000 (see chart above, medallion prices have more than doubled since 2004).

MP: Isn't this an example of a "pressing and urgent problem" that would easily solve itself without government intervention, and a problem that will probably be made significantly worse with government intervention? That is, if there really is an excess supply of taxis in D.C. relative to the demand for taxis, that surplus will be automatically corrected and eliminated by firms/drivers exiting the industry in response to low prices and low/negative profits.

Just like a shortage of taxis would be automatically corrected by firms entering the industry, attracted to the "smell of profits" created by the high prices. As long as the taxi industry has easy entry for new firms, and easy exit for existing firms, which seems to be the case, any surplus or shortage of taxis will automatically be eliminated.

By restricting the supply of taxis with costly medallions, that regulatory action will create a government-enforced taxi cartel, with an artificially low number of taxis and artificially high prices. Membership fees to join the cartel will became extremely expensive (more than half a million dollars to join the NYC Taxi Cartel), and the average person will be priced out of the cartel.

HT: Coyote Blog

Power To The People in Cuba. Sometimes

The Ghost of Power Cuts Past has returned across my country (Cuba). The inconvenient blackouts so common in the nineties have returned because of the international crisis and the dysfunctional Cuban economy. We'd come to believe they were ancient history, overcome by the so called Energy Revolution driven -- five years ago -- by Fidel Castro himself.

~Cuban blogger Yoani Sanchez, "The Ghost of Power Cuts Past Returns to Cuba"

MP: Maybe this is a version of one of the realities of socialism, which is that the people living under socialism pretend to work and then the government returns the favor and pretends to pay them. In this version, the Cuban people pretend to pay for their electricity, or pretend to work for their electricity, and the government pretends to provide electricity. Or not.

Macho Run Amok and Excessively Compensated Is Giving Way to Macho Unemployed and Undirected

The era of male dominance is coming to an end. Seriously.

For years, the world has been witnessing a quiet but monumental shift of power from men to women. Today, the Great Recession has turned what was an evolutionary shift into a revolutionary one. The consequence will be not only a mortal blow to the macho men’s club called finance capitalism that got the world into the current economic catastrophe; it will be a collective crisis for millions and millions of working men around the globe.

Consider, to start, the almost unbelievably disproportionate impact that the current crisis is having on men—so much so that the recession is now known to some economists and the more plugged-in corners of the blogosphere as the “he-cession.” More than 80% of job losses in the United States since November have fallen on men, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (see chart above of male vs. female jobless rates). And the numbers are broadly similar in Europe, adding up to about 7 million more out-of-work men than before the recession just in the United States and Europe as economic sectors traditionally dominated by men (construction and heavy manufacturing) decline further and faster than those traditionally dominated by women (public-sector employment, healthcare, and education). All told, by the end of 2009, the global recession is expected to put as many as 28 million men out of work worldwide.

Indeed, it’s now fair to say that the most enduring legacy of the Great Recession will not be the death of Wall Street. It will not be the death of finance. And it will not be the death of capitalism. These ideas and institutions will live on. What will not survive is macho. And the choice men will have to make, whether to accept or fight this new fact of history, will have seismic effects for all of humanity—women as well as men.

Make no mistake: The axis of global conflict in this century will not be warring ideologies, or competing geopolitics, or clashing civilizations. It won’t be race or ethnicity. It will be gender. We have no precedent for a world after the death of macho. But we can expect the transition to be wrenching, uneven, and possibly very violent.

~"The Death of Macho," by Reihan Salam in Foreign Policy

Fireworks

CHECK IT OUT.

Cars.com 2009 American-Made Car Index: Detroit Automakers Have Only 5 of Top 10, Fewest Ever

Cars.com's American-Made Index highlights the cars that are built here, have the highest amount of domestic parts — with eligible models having parts-content ratings of 75% or higher — and are bought in the largest numbers by Americans.

The Toyota Camry, once an American-Made Index presence, hasn't appeared on this list since 2007. Not only does it return for 2009, it's displaced Ford's F-150 as the only leader this list has had since we began compiling it in 2006. Three others joined the list, two of which — the Ford Taurus and Toyota Venza — have never been on the AMI before, and Detroit automakers claimed just five of the 10 spots. That's a record low for them.

MP: "Foreign" automakers captured half of the top ten spots for American-made cars in 2009:

#1. Toyota Camry (pictured above)
#4. Honda Odyssey
#6. Toyota Sienna
#7. Toyota Tundra
#10. Toyota Venza

Ray Charles: America The Beautiful

Ray Charles in 1991, it doesn't get any better than this:

Stronger Underwriting, Bigger Down Payments

Understanding the causes of the foreclosure explosion is required if we wish to avoid a replay of recent painful events. The suggestions being put forward by the administration and most media outlets -- more stringent regulation of subprime lenders -- would not have prevented the mortgage meltdown regardless of their merit otherwise.

Rather, stronger underwriting standards are needed -- especially a requirement for relatively high down payments. If substantial down payments had been required, the housing price bubble would certainly have been smaller, if it occurred at all, and the incidence of negative equity would have been much smaller even as home prices fell. A further beneficial regulation would be a strengthening, or at least clarifying at a national level, of the recourse that mortgage lenders have if a borrower defaults. Many defaults could be mitigated if homeowners with financial resources know they can't just walk away.

We are at a crossroads where we can undo the damage to the housing market by strengthening underwriting standards in a reasonable way. But to do so political leaders must face up to the actual causes of the mortgage crisis, not fictitious causes that fit political agendas and election strategies.

~Economist Stan Liebowitz in today's WSJ

Instead of Adopting Canadian-style Health Care, How About Learning from Its Banking System?

USA TODAY -- Our northern neighbor sometimes seems so similar to the United States that it's hard to tell where the USA ends and Canada begins. Here's one way: Canada is the place with healthy banks, taxpayers unscathed by megabillion-dollar bailouts and no need to overhaul financial regulation because it was done right the first time.

As U.S. officials scramble to prevent a crisis sequel, the ability of Canadian banks to navigate the current financial storm is earning global plaudits. The World Economic Forum in October ranked the country's financial institutions No. 1 in the world for solvency. U.S. banks came in 40th, two rungs behind Botswana.

The Great Mancession of 2008-2009 Continues As A New Jobless Rate Gender Gap is Set in June

The BLS data released today show that the 2.4% difference between the adult male unemployment rate (10.0%) and adult female unemployment (7.6%) in June is the largest male-female jobless rate gap in the history of BLS data back to 1948 (see chart above of the monthly unemployment rates since 2006).

Further, the 2.4% adult male-female jobless rate gap sets a new record for the largest gap in either direction. There was a 2.3% female-male jobless rate gap in 1967 and again in 1978 when female unemployment rate was higher than the male rate, and a 2.3% male-female jobless rate gap in April and May of this year, but the male-female 2.4% gap in June is the highest on record (BLS data goes back to 1948).

In other words, the current jobless rate gap is historically unprecedented; there has never been a time since at least WWII when there was such an imbalance in unemployment rates by gender. Welcome to the Great Mancession of 2008-2009.

Athletes and Their Agents Don't Set Ticket Prices

CD regular reader Jim Moore writes in an email:

"I don't know if you're interested in reader-provided links, but there's an excellent little economics tutorial in the WSJ today (Wednesday) by Allen Barra, "Sports Salaries Show What We Really Value," page A11."

Here's at least part of that economic lesson:

The athletes and their agents don't determine the price of tickets, souvenirs and food. Not even the owners determine them. In general, you are the ones who set the prices for T-shirts and baseball hats.

It may take a while but eventually, if baseball management has overpriced its commodities, consumers -- that's you, the fans -- will show them their error and the prices will come down. If you are willing to pay their prices that means they set the right prices after all.

MP: It's similar to the economic reality that oil companies do NOT set oil prices or gas prices, it's market forces that ultimately determine market prices.

By the way, I am always interested in reader-provided links, ideas for posts, articles, suggestions, news items, blog items, etc., etc. Many CD posts have been based on reader-provided material, so please feel free to send along interesting items at any time to mjperry@umich.edu.

Canada: Boom in Private Health Care Business

Private for-profit clinics are a booming business in Canada -- a country often touted as a successful example of a universal health system. Facing long waits and substandard care, private clinics are proving that Canadians are willing to pay for treatment.

"Any wait time was an enormous frustration for me and also pain. I just couldn't live my life the way I wanted to," says Canadian patient Christine Crossman, who was told she could wait up to a year for an MRI after injuring her hip during an exercise class. Warned she would have to wait for the scan, and then wait even longer for surgery, Crossman opted for a private clinic.

As the Obama administration prepares to launch its legislative effort to create a national health care system, many experts on both sides of the debate site Canada as a successful model. But the Canadian system is not without its problems. Critics lament the shortage of doctors as patients flood the system, resulting in long waits for some treatment. "No question, it was worth the money," said Crossman, who paid several hundred dollars and waited just a few days.

~FOX NEWS

Web Search Volume for Layoffs Falls to 8 Mo. Low

Chart above (click to enlarge) shows the Web Search Volume (that is supposed to track "interest over time") for the term "layoffs," which fell in May to the lowest level since early October.

The chart below shows the alternative Google Trends search volume and news reference volume for the term "layoffs."

See related CD post on Google Trend searches, and how they can predict economic activity.

It's Doctors and Politics, Not The Market, That Control the Supply of Doctors

The marketplace doesn't determine how many doctors the nation has, as it does for engineers, pilots and other professions. The number of doctors is a political decision, heavily influenced by doctors themselves.

And Congress also controls the supply of physicians by how much federal funding it provides for medical residencies — the graduate training required of all doctors.

To become a physician, students spend four years in medical school. Graduates then spend three to seven years training as residents, usually treating patients under supervision at a hospital. Residents work long hours for $35,000 to $50,000 a year. Even doctors trained in other countries must serve medical residencies in the USA to practice here.

Medicare, which provides health care to the nation's seniors, also is the primary federal agency that controls the supply of doctors. It reimburses hospitals for the cost of training medical residents.

The United States stopped opening medical schools in the 1980s because of the predicted surplus of doctors. The Association of American Medical Colleges dropped this long-standing view in 2002 with the statement: "It now appears that those predictions may be in error." Last month, it recommended increasing the number of U.S. medical students by 15%. Florida State University's College of Medicine, the first new medical school since 1982, will graduate its first class this year.

~"Medical Miscalculation Creates Doctor Shortage" in USA Today on March 2, 2005

Thanks to an anonymous commenter on this CD post