Tuesday, July 28, 2009

Recession Is Over in Richmond Fed Region

RICHMOND FED -- In July, the seasonally adjusted manufacturing index — our broadest measure of manufacturing activity — jumped to 14 from June's reading of 6 (see chart above, click to enlarge). Among the index's components, shipments leaped 14 points to 16, new orders rose eight points to finish at 24, and the jobs index edged up one point to end at −5.

Other indicators also suggested mostly stronger activity. The orders backlogs index eased four points to 4, while the measure for delivery times edged up two points to 2. The capacity utilization index doubled, adding seven points to 14, while our gauges for inventories grew at a considerably slower pace. The finished goods inventory index retreated 14 points to 26, and the raw materials inventory index moved down 10 points to 8.

MP: The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index has increased for five straight months (March-July), the first five-consecutive monthly increase in the index's history (back to 1994). Further, the Manufacturing Index has increased by 69 points from the December 2008 low reading of -55 to 14 points in July, suggesting that the recession has ended in the Richmond Fed region (MD, VA, WV, NC, SC and DC).

7 Comments:

At 7/28/2009 2:41 PM, Anonymous Machiavelli999 said...

Mark,

I think you have missed the talking points. Obama is President. This means economy in permanent nose dive pattern. No recovery is possible. We are all going straight to hell. And in this apocalyptic environment with no demand at all, we will somehow have hyperinflation.

God, get with the program. I think we'll need your latest email address because you obviously must not be getting our memos.

Sincerely,

Crazy conservative loons

********sarcasm off*********

The funniest thing is watching Larry Kudlow trying to reconcile his perma-bullish stance with conservative politicians that he likes saying the economy is horrible. Its like watching a dog trying to chase its own tail. High comedy!

 
At 7/28/2009 6:22 PM, Blogger 1 said...

Hey anon, isn't your search engine working?

Its seriously a sad situation when someone flounders into neo-socialism and reliquishes their grip on reality....

Thankfully there might be a few folks out there that aren't suffering from machiavelli999 syndrome: AP Sources: Senate group omitting Dem health goals
...

 
At 7/28/2009 7:51 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hey 1

If you check those indexes you'll see the questions were rhetorical. My search engines work fine. Someone else misplaced his favorite leading indicators.

 
At 7/29/2009 9:38 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I agree this was an encouraging report, but on the same day the Richmond Fed Services Index report was released, and that was quite discouraging. And last time I looked, US was a services economy. It's on Richmond Fed's website, please take a look.

 
At 7/29/2009 10:39 AM, Blogger Bill said...

Machiavelli999: Apparently, you have not been watching the same Kudlow I have. In fact, his latest column accuses the Republican spokesmen of being too pessimistic on the economy. Read it here:
http://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2009/07/29/are_republicans_the_economic_pessimists_97331.html

 
At 7/29/2009 11:43 AM, Blogger 1 said...

"If you check those indexes you'll see the questions were rhetorical"...

No actually, your questions are whinning...

 
At 7/29/2009 3:39 PM, Blogger fboness said...

How about the anonymous posting index? That's the index of content free anonymous posts. It's a contrary indicator that goes up as things get better.

 

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