Bank of Canada: "THE RECESSION IS OVER"
CBCNEWS.CA -- The recession is over, the Bank of Canada said in its quarterly Monetary Policy Report released Thursday. After shrinking since the last quarter of 2008, the Canadian economy will grow by an annualized rate of 1.3% in the current quarter, the bank said.
"We are on track for the recovery both in Canada and globally," Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney told reporters.
The return to growth after three quarters of decline signals the end of the recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of shrinkage.
Growth will accelerate through late 2009 and by the first half of 2010, the Canadian economy will be booming along with 4% growth. But that will begin to taper off to less than 3% by the last half of 2011, the bank said.
8 Comments:
...has the U.S. become the 11th province of Canada? ;-D (pardon a bit of canuckistan humor!)
Still lots of signs of recession in the global economy:
GDP in Great Britain contracts more than expected.
Unemployment rises in Germany
Germany's GDP contracts by 3.8%, the largest contraction since WWII
Wait till inflation starts from our continued government spending. That will slow things down a little.
I suspect we have a long and good recovery in front of us.
If you have been around long enough, you know everything is in "crisis" always, from health care to education to Afghanistan. You know recessions seems like they will last forever, when you are in one. You know wars seem to last forever, but eventually we do pull out. You know there is always a crisis in oil. You know everyone is a victim, for gorgeous young women, to minorities to rich people asked to pay higher taxes (though nver asked to actually serve in a war). Waa-waa-waa.
But, in fact, life is getting better, not worse. Worker productivity keeps rising. Huge global surpluses of capital are built up quickly and easily now.
In fact, we soon will have the "problem" of trying to invest a soon-to-recur glut of capital profitably.
It was a global glut of capital that contributed to the last boom in housing prices.
The amazing round of inventions in response to the last "oil crisis" alone promise higher and cleaner living standards in the future.
Buffett just advised buying stocks.
Hey, the Fat Lady is singing for this recession, and she is getting sweaty and loosened up, and is soon going to start belting out some real music.
Moreover, as much as I may disagree with elements of the Obama team, at least they show up for work, and are serious about the craft of governing, and they want to get re-elected.
I suspect we have another long, good run in front us.
It just gets better and better.
Double dip.
I think we might have one of the shortest false recoveries on record.
The underlying fundamental are far from sound.
Things to be concerned about:
1. lingering unemployment
2. inflation
3. weak dollar
4. massive deficits
5. continued government intervention
6. Ben Bernanke
Let's wait until 2012 is over before talking about how great the recovery is.
Mayfield:
Inflation? Are you kidding? If you can, look at Page C1, today's WSJ. Global deflation now is the rule. It is minor, but there. There is execess capacity in everything, everywhere. Anybody running a job ad is inundated.
In North America, we are sitting atop an epic supply of natural gas from shale.
We are a long, long, long, very long way from inflation.
Bernanke is okay, and seems serious about his craft. Many lessons learned in this recession, will be applied.
Look at what has happened to the monetary base.
Sooner or later this will translate into much higher prices.
Pay attention to Jim Rogers, Peter Schiff, and Gerald Celente. They actually predicted much of current economic downturn.
Eventually Bernanke and company will have to raise rates. One of two things is likely to occur.
1. a drop in growth
2. double digit inflation
Again, before 2012 one of the two things is likely to occur.
Mayfield-
I lived through the last double dip, and it gets ugly, so I hope you are wrong. By the end of the second dip, people are joining survival cults.
I am hoping Bernanke/Obama error on the "upside" and provide too much stimulus.
I think there is global slack in everything. Sheesh, even the much-touted oil shortage has pooped out--OPEC cut production 4 mbd, and we have 2 mbd everyday piling up in tankers.
That slack means stimulus has long, long way to go before inflation.
In any event, we need some inflation. We are overindebted, and must invalidate our debt through inflation,. Happily, the dollar is the international currency, so we can do that. We pay back our debts in dollars. Easy-peasy.
The domestic economy needs deleveraging, and given our predilections for deficit spending, we will need inflation's help there too.
However, I appreciate your comments. Most posters here post with profanity and ad hominem brickbats (usually substituting those attributes for reasoned discourse) You must be new to this site.
Too much stimulus is part of the problem.
The bubble has popped.
Instead of attempting to re-inflate the bubble, we need for all of the malinvestments of the Fed induced boom to continue.
Artificially low interest rates distort the markets.
What we are currently suffering is a consequence of Greenspan's 2003-04 policy of 1% rates.
He succeeded in creating a bubble, now that bubble has popped.
Instead of cleaning up the mess, Washington and the Fed are trying to create a new bubble.
We could have allowed markets to clear and adjust starting in the fall of 2007, instead Bernanke floods the economy with easy money.
The longer we have rates at near zero, the tougher it will be for the Fed to raise them to reasonable levels. The low rates are increasing the severity of inflation that will occur in the next 2-5 years.
Read Peter Schiff's latest essay.
http://www.lewrockwell.com/schiff/schiff37.1.html
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