Saturday, July 25, 2009

Growth in the ECRI Index Hits Fresh Five-Year High

NEW YORK, July 24 (Reuters) - A gauge of future U.S.economic growth edged higher in the latest week, while its measure of annual growth continued to stride at five-year highs, feeding hopes that a smooth recovery is due this year, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 118.4 in the week to July 17 from 118.1 the previous week. The index's annualized growth rate jumped to a fresh five-year high of 7.7% from 7% one week ago. It was the index's highest yearly growth rate reading since the week ended May 7, 2004, when it stood at 7.8% (see chart above).

"With WLI growth climbing to a new five-year high, it is reaffirming that the end of recession is at hand and that the U.S. economy is poised for recovery in short order," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI.

3 Comments:

At 7/25/2009 12:43 PM, Blogger 1 said...

I wonder if Lakshman Achuthan could sell this point of view to Frank Shostak is an adjunct scholar of the Mises Institute?

Is the US Economy Close to Hitting Bottom?

"Most experts and commentators are of the view that the worst of the US recession may be over by year's end. My own prediction is for an illusory recovery of government-constructed economic indicators, but nothing more than that."...

 
At 7/25/2009 3:25 PM, Blogger rufus said...

Lakshman's numbers are "Right There." He puts them up Every Week. His record is excellent.

What about Whatshisname?

 
At 7/30/2009 10:36 AM, Blogger Owen B said...

If you wonder about ECRI recovery call, check out new post on ECRI site about Home Price Upturn:

www.businesscycle.com

"With U.S. home values far below their boom-time highs, most observers are resigned to an indefinite downdraft in home prices. It is this uncertainty about the ultimate bottom in home prices that has converted so many mortgage-related derivatives into toxic assets. Yet, at long last, the end of the home price downturn is in sight.

One key reason for the turnaround in the outlook is housing affordability, which is hovering around all-time highs. The current combination of drastically reduced home prices and very low mortgage rates has hardly ever been seen in living memory…

Most importantly, the U.S. Leading Home Price Index (USLHPI), designed to predict cyclical turns in real home prices, has now been rising for five months… But a three P’s analysis (see chart below) of the level of the USLHPI reveals an even more promising picture… the recent upturn in the USLHPI is almost as pronounced as the median in comparable past cycles… it is almost as pervasive; and … it is just as persistent. The implication is clear: this is a genuine cyclical upturn in the level of the USLHPI. Such an upturn in the USLHPI amounts to a forecast of a cyclical upturn in the level of home prices this year…"

 

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