Wednesday, December 07, 2011

Steve Hayward: America's Vast Energy Resources



Environmental scholar Steven Hayward exposes how U.S. energy policies have restricted access to America's vast energy resources. The result? America is less competitive in the world, energy prices are skyrocketing, and the economy is suffering. The United States must open federal lands to exploration and end the regulatory blockade that keeps shale oil and gas out of our reach. To read the North American Energy Inventory that Dr. Hayward's video is based on, go here.

Digital Christmas Story



HT: Joe Lais

Quote of the Day: Taxes and Home Values

"When you buy a house, you’re not just committing to a mortgage. You are also promising to pay the future property taxes on that house. What drives those local property taxes are the future costs of paying state and local workers and retirees, particularly retirees’ pensions and health care. These costs are going in one direction: up.  

Unless state and local governments take steps now to reduce future costs, or unless they plan on suddenly repudiating their promises to their public-sector work forces one day, every dollar in unfunded pension and health-care costs is up to a dollar less in the future value of a house."

~Nicole Gelinas, NRO article "How Taxes Drive Down Home Values"

HT: NCPA

Fact of the Day: Hunting is Safer Than Bowling?


According to the National Shooting Sports Foundation, hunting with firearms is one of the safest recreational activities in America (here's the press release and here's the fact sheet with sources provided).  Based on the percentage of injuries per 100 participants, hunting with firearms (0.05%) is slightly safer than bowling (0.06%) or jogging (0.08%) and slightly less safe than billiards (0.02%), see chart above.   The organization also points out that compared to hunting a person is:
  • 11 times more likely to be injured playing volleyball
  • 19 times more likely to be injured snowboarding
  • 25 times more likely to be injured cheerleading or bicycle riding
  • 34 times more likely to be injured playing soccer or skateboarding
  • 105 more times likely to be injured playing tackle football.
Not surprisingly, the least safe sport is football (tackle) by far, followed by basketball, skateboarding, soccer, wrestling and bicycle riding (see chart below).


Tuesday, December 06, 2011

Ten N.D. Counties Have Jobless Rates Below 2%

 North Dakota County   October Jobless Rate 
Williams County 0.9%
Slope County 1.1%
Mountrail County 1.3%
McKenzie County 1.4%
Billings County 1.5%
Stark County 1.5%
Dunn County 1.7%
Bowman County 1.9%
Oliver County 1.9%
Steele County 1.9%

According to the North Dakota state government, there were ten counties in the state (out of 51) that had unemployment rates below 2% in the month of October (see chart above).  Williams County leads the country with the lowest jobless rate for any county at 0.9%.  Almost all of these counties are in the western part of the state that sits on top of the vast oil resources of the Bakken formation.  The drilling boom for shale oil in North Dakota has led to a jobs boom and the lowest state unemployment rate in the country (2.6% in October, not seasonally adjusted), with some North Dakota counties falling below 2% this year.

Drill, drill, drill = jobs, jobs, jobs.

Income Inequality: Babe Ruth vs. Alex Rodriguez

$1 million salary vs. $30 million
In 1927 when Babe Ruth hit 60 home runs and set the single-season record that lasted until 1961, he made $70,000 playing for the New York Yankees.  That would be equivalent to a salary in today's dollars of only $911,000.  In 1930 and 1931, Babe Ruth was paid $80,000 by the Yankees, which was the most he earned in a single year, and equivalent to only slightly more than $1 million today.  

In contrast, the average major league baseball player's salary was nearly $3.1 million this year, or three times more than super-star Babe Ruth made at the peak of his career, adjusted for inflation. Is that unfair or not?  

And isn't that evidence of rising income inequality over time that average players now make more than the superstars of the past, and today's highly-paid superstars like Alex Rodriguez make salaries ($32 million) that are more than 30 times higher than a superstar of the 1920s and 1930s like Babe Ruth?  And it's highly likely the share of baseball payrolls going to the top 1, 5 or 10% of the players has also increased over time, as incomes have become more concentrated among the top players. For example, Alex Rodriguez's salary represented 16% of the Yankee's $202 million payroll this year as the highest paid player, and in 1988 the highest-paid Yankee, Jack Clark, earned a salary of $2 million that  represented only 11% of the team's $18.9 million payroll that year.  Baseball's "rich" (top 1%) just keep getting richer and richer?   

Just ask yourself this question: As a superstar with world-class athletic ability, would you rather be marketing your talent in 1930 America like Babe Ruth, or in 2011 America like Alex Rodriguez?  Clearly Alex Rodriguez has the advantage of selling his superstar abilities in a much larger (greater ticket sales), much more globalized sports marketplace with increased competition from talented players around the world, along with much higher salaries to reflect the realities of modern MLB.

As part of both society's 1% and "MLB's 1 percent," Alex Rodriguez deserves to make more income today than Babe Ruth made in the 1920s and 1930s when he was part of the "MLB 1 percent" of that era.  But it's also the case that MLB's lowest-paid, average-paid players, and in fact "the entire MLB 99%," are also better off  today in terms of income than their counterparts of the past. 

Maybe there's a lesson here about rising income inequality.  Whether it’s in professional sports or in society as a whole, perhaps rising income inequality over time is a natural and expected outcome of increasingly competitive labor markets and the expanded opportunities that come from larger and increasingly competitive global markets.  And those same competitive forces that lead to greater income inequality in both the MLB and the overall economy over time also help to make all MLB players and all Americans better off year after year, just not at exactly the same rate.

New Report Shatters the Myth of Energy Scarcity and Highlights America's Vast Energy Resources

Here are some excerpts from a new energy study titled "North American Energy Inventory" from The Institute for Energy Research: 

Letter from the President (Thomas J. Pyle): "Access to affordable, abundant energy is, fundamentally, a means of freedom. But for those seeking to create a crisis that provides an opportunity to direct the way we live, work and act, affordable, reliable, abundant, domestic energy is a threat. In a very real sense, the more energy we have, the less power they will have. Energy abundance ends the justi!cation for central energy decision-making.

Against that backdrop, the Institute for Energy Research (IER) is proud to release the following report. It is the culmination of months of research and investigation by IER experts, drawing on a broad array of government, industry and university data—all of it public information—to provide the reader a more accurate description of what is available in North America now and what will likely be available in the future.

America’s energy future can be bright. Converting that potential into something real and transformative will not be easy—nor is success guaranteed. This report describes in detail what is possible and should serve once-and-for-all to shatter the myth of energy scarcity, and in so doing, empowers American citizens rather than politicians."

Conclusion: "North America is blessed with enough energy supplies to promote and sustain economic growth for many generations. The government’s own reports detail this, and Congress was advised of our energy wealth when the Congressional Research Service released a report showing that the United States’ combined recoverable oil, natural gas, and coal endowment is the largest on Earth.

Despite this overwhelming evidence of energy abundance, many continue to proclaim that an energy problem or “crisis” exists that justifies increased central planning, increased expenditures of public money, increased energy taxes and increased diktats on American citizens in order to solve “the problem.”

For forty years, politicians and special interests have argued successfully that energy production requires more regulations, more taxes, and more restrictions and the result has been less domestically produced energy, less economic growth, and fewer jobs.

Ironically, many of the policies that serve to hamstring energy production were abetted by the same premise: since America does not have enough oil, natural gas, and coal to continue to build its economy and improve the standards of living for all, the impact of proposed policies would negligibly affect energy production and security. The truth that is finally becoming clear is that North America is not only blessed with huge quantities of energy, but also could become the single largest producer in the world, with all of the attendant manufacturing, technological innovation and re-industrialization that would provide generations with good jobs and sustainable futures.

The question Americans therefore need to ask is whether government officials throughout North America will embrace this enormous opportunity or scorn it. Armed only with pessimistic assumptions about technology and an incomplete and misleading understanding of our energy wealth here at home, we should not be surprised that our energy situation has gotten worse the more they intervened.

The era of perceived energy shortages must end, and informed judgments about North America’s energy potential must finally be made.  Millions of new jobs, untold economic growth, and unprecedented wealth creation for North America and the world await a productive and conducive environment for energy production. 

Facing a future of plentiful and affordable energy supplies, Americans can once again reclaim the optimism that has characterized our history, replacing the pessimism of scarcity and government rationing that has placed limits on the growth of our economy and perhaps more importantly, our way of looking at the world."


Shale Gas Will Increase Jobs, GDP, Tax Revenues and Industrial Output, and Lower Elec. Costs

Bloomberg reports on a new study from IHS Global Insight about the benefits of shale gas drilling for the U.S. economy, here are some highlights:

1. Producing natural gas from shale will support 870,000 U.S. jobs and add $118 billion to economic growth in the next four years.

2. Gas from shale, which accounts for 34% of U.S. output, also will contribute $57 billion in federal, state and local taxes by 2035, or $933 billion in the next 25 years. 

3. The shale-gas contribution to U.S. gross domestic product will triple to $231 billion in 2036 from $76 billion last year. 

4. Lower natural gas prices as shale boosts supply will cut U.S. electricity costs by an average of 10%. Lower prices will raise industrial production 2.9% by 2017 and 4.7% by 2035.

Megabus Alternative to Amtrak and High-Speed Rail

NEW YORK (WALA) - "Megabus.com , the first city-to-city, express bus service offering fares from $1, announced it is offering 200,000 free seats for travel Jan. 4 to March 1, 2012. Customers can begin booking their free seats now."

MP: This year's Megabus promotion offering 200,000 free seats follows last year's promotion that also gave away 200,000 free seats, which was double the 100,000 seats given away two years ago for Megabus' first "free seat" promotion.  That brings the total number of free seats on Megabus to 500,000 over the last three years.  And even when it's now giving away free seats, Megabus offers fares starting at $1 on a year round basis, making it the cheapest way to travel.  A quick check of the Megabus website shows $9 fares for travel between Washington, D.C. and NYC next week. If you book a trip on Amtrak from Washington, D.C. to NYC on the same day, it'll cost you $80 for regular service and $142 for the Acela Express, and that's one-way. And it's probably safe to say that Amtrak has never given away any free tickets. 

Megabus is a great example of a competitive, flexible, low-cost (sometimes free), consumer-driven, market-based solution to inter-city transportation that has thrived without any government subsidies, tax breaks or taxpayer funding.  Contrast that alternative to government transportation options like Amtrak and high-speed rail proposals that are the opposite: non-competitive, inflexible, high-cost, politician-driven, and not market-based, requiring massive amounts of taxpayer funding and subsidies.   

Housing Affordability At Record High in October


According to a release today from The National Association of Realtors, the Housing Affordability Index reached a new all-time record high of 197.8 in October (see chart above).   Based on the hypothetical purchase of the median-priced home of $161,600 in October, financed at the average mortgage rate of 4.32% (with a 20% down payment), the median family income of $60,871 was 197.8% of the $30,768 income required to qualify for the financing and the $641 monthly payments (principal and interest).   

In other words, median family income in the U.S. is now nearly double the income required  to qualify for the purchase of the median-priced home.  Housing has probably never been more affordable in U.S. history than it is today, and you would think that the record affordability would eventually have to start translating into robust home sales and a strong real estate recovery.  

The "Shale Gale" Goes Global with Discoveries in Argentina and China, "Peak Oil" Losing Relevance

1. Peak Oil Debate Losing Relevance Due to New Upstream Technology -- "The debate over whether the world's reserves of hydrocarbons have now peaked and are in decline has lost relevance over recent years as new technology allows oil companies to find and exploit new hydrocarbon sources, the CEO of Repsol Antonio Brufau said today.

Brufau said progress made in exploring and developing ultra-deepwater areas, unconventional oil and gas sources and the move into remote areas such as the Arctic, have been key to growing global reserves of oil and gas. "The speed at which technology changes and its consequences have taken us largely by surprise. The peak oil debate has lost a great deal of its relevance in the past three years," Brufau told the World Petroleum Congress in Doha. 

Repsol continued to more than replace its proven oil and gas reserves outside Argentina this year and will accelerate output from 2015 onwards as it converts contingent resources into proven reserves. Brufau pointed to developments in the U.S. shale gas industry and highlighted Repsol's own plans to develop a huge shale oil and gas area in Argentina. The Vaca Muerta shale oil and gas discovery in Argentina covers nearly 1 billion equivalent barrels of recoverable shale oil."

2.  Shell Strikes Shale Gas in China -- "Royal Dutch Shell has found shale gas in China, a development that could cap imports in a market natural gas producers are hoping will drive demand.  An official with Shell's partner, PetroChina, a unit of the country's top energy group, state-owned CNPC, said drilling results from two wells Shell drilled had been positive.

"Shell has two vertical wells and they got very good primary production," Professor Yuzhang Liu, Vice president of Petrochina's Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration and Development (RIPED), said in an interview at the sidelines of the World Petroleum Congress in Doha. "It's good news for shale gas," said Liu. China currently has no commercial shale gas production."

HT: Mike W.

U.S. Car Industry Is Coming Back from the Dead


1. Guess What? The U.S. Car Industry Is Back From The Dead, and it will continue to get better (see video above). Reason? The average age of cars in America is now more than 10 years, compared to 6 years at the peak of the economic boom. This suggests that Americans will have to continue to buy new cars to replace the ones they have, which bodes well for future car sales.

Here's another reason that the U.S. car industry will expand output in the future:

2. "Toyota Motor Corp. said it plans to export its U.S.-built Camry sedan to South Korea, following the ratification of the free trade deal. The Japanese automaker plans to ship about 6,000 Camry vehicles annually from the United States to South Korea starting in January. Last month, Toyota started exporting its Sienna minivan to South Korea, as well.

It's the first time Toyota will export the U.S.-built Camry outside North America. Toyota faces cost pressures in Japan in assembling vehicles there because of the strength of the Japanese yen."  (HT: Mike W.)

And car sales in China are booming  for GM and Ford.

3.  "GM today reported its November sales in China shot up at their fastest pace in ten months; Ford reported its sales in China are up 7 percent this year -- all proof that in these tough economic times, somebody somewhere is buying something. That would be: people in China are buying cars."

Monday, December 05, 2011

Let's Legalize It: Bone Marrow and Kidneys

1. Bone Marrow - "The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit ruled that the majority of bone-marrow donors may lawfully be compensated. In a unanimous ruling, the court rejected the position of the U.S. Department of Justice that obtaining bone-marrow stem cells through a needle in a donor's arm—in much the same way that blood plasma and platelets are collected—violates the ban on paying for organs established by the 1984 National Organ Transplant Act (NOTA). 

"The ruling could save hundreds or thousands more lives a year," according to Jeff Rowes of the Institute for Justice, who was lead counsel on the case.

The decision has broad implications for transplant policy in general because it underscores the profound weakness in our altruism-only transplant policy—not only relating to bone marrow, no matter how it is collected, but also for the thousands who die each year awaiting a kidney, liver, heart or lung. As the judges pointed out, there is no logical basis for allowing compensation for blood, sperm and eggs while disallowing bone-marrow cells obtained through apheresis."

~Sally Satel in today's WSJ, "A Lifesaving Legal Ruling on Organ Donation"

2. Kidneys -  "This is a serious problem, because there aren’t nearly enough saints in the country to tackle the growing waiting list for a kidney. More than 34,000 people joined the waiting list in 2010; fewer than 17,000 received one. Thousands of people die waiting each year. 

This is a tragedy, but it doesn’t have to be this way. The people waiting for kidneys aren’t dying because of kidney failure; they’re dying because of our failure — without Congress’s misguided effort to ban organ sales, they would have been able to get the kidneys they desperately needed.

People should not have to beg their friends and family for a kidney, nor die while waiting for one. Donating a kidney is one way to help. But it isn’t enough. The only way to really change the terms of the debate and end the waiting lists is to end the ban on compensation and create a legal market for kidneys."

~Alexander Berger in Monday's New York Times, "Why Selling Kidneys Should Be Legal"

Exports and Imports Are Flip Sides of Same Coin; Therefore A Tax on U.S. Imports Is a Tax on Exports


In a short pamphlet from the American Enterprise Institute titled "Three Simple Principles of Trade Policy," Dartmouth economist Douglas A. Irwin writes this about his first simple principle, "A Tax on Imports is a Tax on Exports":

"Any restraint on imports also acts, in effect, as a restraint on exports. If a government undertakes policies that systematically  reduce the volume of imports, it also systematically reduces the volume of exports. The converse of this proposition is also true: when a government undertakes policies to expand the volume of exports, it cannot help but to expand the volume of imports as well.

The fundamental reason for this truth is that exports and imports are flip sides of the same coin.  Exports are necessary to generate the earnings to pay for imports, or exports are the goods a country must give up in order to acquire imports.  Exports and imports are inherently interdependent, and any policy that reduces one will also reduce the other."  

MP: The chart above provides historical data on U.S. international trade (annual exports and imports in log form) from 1790 to 2011 that confirm the strong statistical correlation between exports and imports over the last 221 years - they are inextricably linked and interdependent.  It follows from Irwin's First Simple Principle of Trade Policy that:

1. Trade policies that attempt to stimulate exports simultaneously stimulate imports. Although he probably doesn't understand or recognize this, Obama's plan to double exports over the next five years will simultaneously double imports over the next five years.

2. Attempts to tax (impose tariffs on) imports to protect domestic industries and increase jobs and exports in that industry will backfire because the tax on imports will simultaneously be a tax on U.S. exports, and there might actually be an overall decrease in employment. 

The history of U.S. trade policy is based on the illusion that exports and imports are determined, or can be influenced, independently, since trade policy is almost always targeted at either decreasing imports or expanding exports, e.g. Obama's plan to double exports.   But the reality is that exports and imports are dependent, determined simultaneously, and they rise and fall together.

3. This type of nitwitery will never work to create new U.S. jobs:

"World News with Diane Sawyer" is gearing up for a "Made in America Christmas" and we need your help. The average American will spend $700 on holiday gifts and goodies this year, totaling more than $465 billion, the National Retail Federation estimates. If that money was spent entirely on U.S. made products it would create 4.6 million jobs. But it doesn't even have to be that big. If each of us spent just $64 on American made goods during our holiday shopping, the result would be 200,000 new jobs."

According to the First Simple Principle, reducing spending on imported Christmas gifts this year will simultaneously reduce spending on U.S. exports, and to the extent that any new jobs are created in some U.S. industries, they will be offset by job losses in other industries. No matter how successful the "Made in America Christmas" campaign is at increasing sales of American-made products, it won't create a single new American job, on net.  

Milton Friedman: Why Drugs Should Be Legalized



On the 78th anniversary of the end of Prohibition, here's a classic Milton Friedman interview above where he explains why both alcohol and drugs should be legalized.

When asked if it's not true that the drug problem is an economic problem, Friedman responds:

"No, absolutely not, it’s primarily a moral problem. It’s a problem with the harm which government is doing. I have estimated statistically that the prohibition of drugs produces on the average 10,000 additional homicides per year. It’s a moral problem that the government’s going around killing 10,000 people. It’s a moral problem that the government is making into criminals people who may be doing something you and I don’t approve of, but are doing something that hurts nobody else.

Most of the arrests for drugs are for possession by casual users. Now here’s somebody who wants to smoke a joint. If he’s caught, he goes to jail. Now is that moral? Is that proper?

I think it’s absolutely disgraceful that our government should be in the position of converting people who are not harming others into criminals, of destroying their lives, putting them in jail, that’s the issue to me." 

Exhibit A:  As an example of how the War on Drugs ruins lives (not to mention economic potential and an NFL career), consider this story of Green Bay Packers defensive lineman Johnny Jolly, who recently got sentenced to six years in prison for being addicted to codeine pills. (ht/Roman)

Good News: War on Alcohol Ended 78 Years Ago; Bad News: War on Drugs Kills 61 Per Day in Mexico


Good News: Today marks the 78th anniversary of the repeal of America's "War on Alcohol" on December 5, 1933, after nearly 13 years of Prohibition.  

Bad News: Largely as a result of America's "War on Drugs," more than 22,000 people will die this year from drug-related violence in Mexico, bringing the total number of narco-related killings to almost 55,000 in the six years since 2006 (see chart above).  At the current rate of 61 drug deaths per day, the total number of Mexican casualties from the "War on Drugs" will reach 58,000 sometime around March 1, which will then match the number of U.S. casualties in the Vietnam War (58,272). 

More Casualties from the U.S. War on Drugs

Some police officers, border patrol agents, and probation officers who support reforming America's drug laws are among the latest casualties of America's War on Drugs War on Peaceful Americans Who Voluntarily Use Intoxicants Not Currently Approved of by the U.S. Government, Who Will Put Them in Cages if Caught (thanks to Don Boudreaux and Glenn Greenwald for inspiring this description), reports the New York Times.  For daring to publicly express their opinion that we should consider relaxing America's draconian and barbaric drug laws, some members of law enforcement are being punished, and some are being terminated. 

Meanwhile, more than 20,000 Mexicans will give their lives this year to the War on Drugs, at a rate of 61 drug-related deaths per day, an increase over last year's rate of "only" 37 narco-related killings per day. 

Higher Education Bubble: A Simple Case of Inflation

Glenn Reynolds writing about the higher education bubble in Sunday's Washington Examiner:

"This is a simple case of inflation: When you artificially pump up the supply of something (whether it's currency or diplomas), the value drops. The reason why a bachelor's degree on its own no longer conveys intelligence and capability is that the government decided that as many people as possible should have bachelor's degrees. 

There's something of a pattern here. The government decides to try to increase the middle class by subsidizing things that middle class people have: If middle class people go to college and own homes, then surely if more people go to college and own homes, we'll have more middle class people.

But homeownership and college aren't causes of middle-class status, they're markers for possessing the kinds of traits -- self-discipline, the ability to defer gratification, etc. -- that let you enter, and stay in, the middle class. Subsidizing the markers doesn't produce the traits; if anything, it undermines them. One might as well try to promote basketball skills by distributing expensive sneakers.

Professional basketball players have expensive sneakers, but -- TV commercials notwithstanding -- it's not the shoes that make them good at dunking.  If the government really wants to encourage people to achieve, and maintain, middle-class status, it should be encouraging things like self-discipline and the ability to defer gratification. But that's not how politics works."

HT: Steve Bartin at Newsalert


Sunday, December 04, 2011

WSJ: Notable and Quotable

WSJ Notable and Quotable: Economist Mark J. Perry on China's exchange rate and American prosperity at American.com, Dec. 2:

"Let me break from [the] consensus about China's currency policy and present an alternative position: In the best of all possible worlds for the United States, China would use its labor and capital to manufacture consumer products like clothing, footwear, furniture, electronics, and appliances and send $300 billion worth of these products to U.S. consumers for free every year as a gift or a form of foreign aid to the American people. In addition, the Chinese would produce and send to America another $100 billion worth of raw materials, parts, industrial supplies, inputs, and natural resources at no charge, as a gift to American manufacturers every year. (Note: That's roughly the amount of goods we will purchase from China this year.) . . .

Unfortunately, that extreme Chinese generosity is not realistic, so here's a possible second-best outcome: . . . [China] agrees to send us $500 billion worth of consumer and industrial goods every year, but agrees to sell us those manufactured goods at a substantial 20 percent discount for only $400 billion. In that case, the amount of foreign aid will be less than the $400 billion in the first example, but will still be significant—a $100 billion gift every year from the Chinese people to the American people.

How will China generate this $100 billion in annual foreign aid to the United States? One way is to keep its currency undervalued to bring about the 20 percent discount on its products coming to America.

Which then raises the question: If China is willing to undervalue its currency, and in the process provide approximately $100 billion of foreign aid annually to American consumers and businesses, what's the problem? Why should we complain?"

New Cars: Why Not Report Unit Sales AND Prices?

Manufacturer Nov. 2011
Transaction Price
Nov. 2010
Transaction Price
Percent Change
Chrysler$29,128 $28,436 2.40%
Ford $32,174 $30,027 7.20%
GM $33,189 $32,551 2.00%
Honda $26,730 $25,421 5.20%
Hyundai/Kia $21,384 $19,408 10.20%
Nissan $27,613 $26,784 3.10%
Toyota $27,692 $26,311 5.20%
Industry Average$30,317 $29,154 4.00%

Last week Autodata reported 994,721 total light vehicle sales for November, which was a 13.9% annual increase from November last year (873,323 units).  Separately, TrueCar.com reported that the average sales price for a new car reached a record high in November of $30,317 (average transaction price), an increase of 4% compared to a year earlier ($29,154, see chart).  

In that case, the total sales volume for new vehicles increased year-over-year in November by 18.44%, from $25.46 billion last year to $30.15 billion this year, and the total sales volume increase was even more impressive than the 13.9% increase in unit sales.  Now only did American consumers buy 121,398 more cars last month compared to November 2010, but they were also willing to pay 4% more on average, or $1,163 more per vehicle.  That translated into an increase in sales volume of $5 billion.

When existing and new home sales are reported, both unit sales, and average and/or median sales prices are reported.  Maybe car sales should be reported the same way, to get a more complete picture of vehicle sales?  

Big Oil Redraws Energy Map and Heads Back Home; U.S. Is At Forefront of Unconventionals Revolution

In Monday's WSJ, Guy Chazan explains why energy companies are shifting their focus away from the Middle East and toward the West, and how this will have profound implications for the companies, global politics and consumers, here's an excerpt:

"Big Oil is redrawing the energy map.  For decades, its main stomping grounds were in the developing world—exotic locales like the Persian Gulf and the desert sands of North Africa, the Niger Delta and the Caspian Sea. But in recent years, that geographical focus has undergone a radical change. Western energy giants are increasingly hunting for supplies in rich, developed countries—a shift that could have profound implications for the industry, global politics and consumers.  

Driving the change is the boom in unconventionals—the tough kinds of hydrocarbons like shale gas and oil sands that were once considered too difficult and expensive to extract and are now being exploited on an unprecedented scale from Australia to Canada.  

The U.S. is at the forefront of the unconventionals revolution. By 2020, shale sources will make up about a third of total U.S. oil and gas production, according to PFC Energy, a Washington-based consultancy. By that time, the U.S. will be the top global oil and gas producer, surpassing Russia and Saudi Arabia, PFC predicts.  

That could have far-reaching ramifications for the politics of oil, potentially shifting power away from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries toward the Western hemisphere. With more crude being produced in North America, there's less likelihood of Middle Eastern politics causing supply shocks that drive up gasoline prices. Consumers could also benefit from lower electricity prices, as power plants switch from coal to cheap and plentiful natural gas.  

And the change is reshaping the oil companies themselves, as they reallocate their vast resources to new areas and new kinds of fuel. Working in the rich world—with its more predictable taxes and investor-friendly policies—removes some of the risks about the big oil companies that worry investors, making them less vulnerable to the resource nationalism of petrostates like Russia and Venezuela."

Bond Market's Inflation Prediction Falls Below 2%

The chart above shows the bond market's inflation prediction since the beginning of the year, calculated as the weekly difference between the 10-year regular, nominal Treasury yield (data here) and the 10-year Treasury inflation-indexed yield (a measure of the real interest rate, data here), both on a constant maturity basis.  From a yearly high of 2.62% in mid-April, the proxy for bond investors' inflation outlook has been trending downward, and reached a year-to-date low of 1.82% in late September.  After rising above 2% for three weeks for the last week of October and the first two weeks of November, the inflation expectation spread has been below 2% for the last two weeks.

Notice that the downward trend in the bond market's inflation prediction over the year has been very similar to the downward pattern in the actual monthly rates of inflation from the BPP @ MIT, see post below (link here) and graph below.  


BPP Data Shows Inflation Trending Downward

The chart above shows monthly inflation rate from the Billion Prices Project @ MIT over the period from the first of the year through October 31.  According to the BPP website, the index is "designed to provide real-time information on major inflation trends, not to forecast official inflation announcements. We are constantly adding new categories of goods, but we do not cover 100% of CPI goods and services. The price of services, in particular, are not easy to find online and therefore are not included in our statistics."

Bottom Line: Monthly inflation, measured by the BBP @ MIT, has been trending downward since February, and at the end of October was below 0.10%.    

Saturday, December 03, 2011

Markets in Everything: Stupid Xmas Gifts

Like the Santa Claus Beard Beanie pictured above, and there's lots more here from Stupid.com.

Markets in Everything: App to Avoid WA Bridge Toll



More information here.

HT: Roger Weber

Friday, December 02, 2011

Two Completely Mind-Blowing Videos

Nature is awesome.



People are awesome.


HT: Coyote Blog (second video)

Friday Night Gallimaufry

1. Cancer patients can now legally offer modest compensation to bone marrow donors, thanks to a legal victory this week by the Institute for Justice.

2. The British Library has digitized 300 years worth of newspaper archives, and now brings 65 million articles and 4 million pages online in searchable format.  

3. Do cell phone bans have a positive effect on road traffic safety? No, not in terms of reduced number of crashes, according to this Swedish study (see Section 3.9).

4. As more Americans give up their land lines, the increased use of cellphones is causing big problems for public opinion pollsters.

5.  Retail health clinics in the U.S. are now at record high: 1,353 are operating in 41 States, and the number of clinics has increased by 144 over the last 12 months. 

6.  A professor says that colleges should be required to post a "College Report Card" on their Web sites, i.e. a "consumer warning label," like those required for tire manufacturers. 

7. America's 100 most promising companies, from Forbes.   

8. October home sales increased by 15.2% in Phoenix and by 15.3% in Las Vegas.

Markets in Everything: Online Micro-Labor

Hello Heroic: Facebook Meets Craigslist

MINNEAPOLIS (WCCO) -- "Cleaning the bathroom, making bag lunches and shoveling the sidewalk, they’re all tedious tasks.But now if you’re looking for help, you can pay someone else to do those chores with the click of a mouse. You even pick how much those jobs are worth.

It’s through a web site called called Hello Heroic. Think Facebook meets Craigslist, but you’re in charge."  Watch video above for more details.

See related WSJ article "Serfing the Web: Sites Let People Farm Out Their Chores" featuring micro-labor websites TaskRabbit ("Get just about anything done by safe, reliable, awesome people") and Zaarly.

CD Trivia: New Record for Comments?

This November 23 CD post "There Is No Money Pile To Be Shared Equally" might have set a new all-time record for the highest number of comments: 601 so far (see graphic above).

Markets in Everything: Online Toy Rental

"The Netflix of Toys"

BOSTON (CBS) – "When you are a kid on Christmas morning, it’s all about volume. But when you are a parent, cruising the aisles of the toy-store in December, it’s about trying to balance a happy holiday with a reasonable budget. Paul Reinsmith of Boston has found a great way to have plenty of toys under the tree, and all year, without breaking the bank.

Paul and his wife Pam discovered what they call the ‘Netflix’ of toys. It’s called Toygaroo, a website that lets parents rent toys for a fraction of what they would cost to buy."

HT: Drudge Report

We Should Thank China for Its Currency Policy

When you hear discussion of China’s currency manipulation, keep the following in mind:

1. China's currency manipulation is a form of foreign aid, and to the direct advantage of millions of U.S. consumers, especially low-income groups, and to the direct advantage of thousands of American companies buying inputs from China.

2. Forcing China to revalue its currency would benefit some American manufacturers competing with China, but would significantly harm those American consumers and businesses currently buying undervalued imports. On net, there would be more harm to American consumers than benefits to American manufacturers, which would reduce our overall standard of living.

3. Like other forms of mercantilism and protectionism, forcing or pressuring China to appreciate its currency would favor certain domestic producers over millions of consumers and import-buying companies, but would make the United States worse off, not better off.

4. Finally, instead of complaining, we should be thankful for China's foreign aid to Americans through an undervalued yuan, overvalued dollar, and undervalued goods that collectively save American consumers and companies billions of dollars every year.

Bottom Line: If you wouldn't object to China sending products to the United States for free, then on what basis would you object to currency “manipulation” that allows you to purchase undervalued Chinese imports at a huge discount and great bargain?

Excerpt from my article "Why We Should Thank the Currency Manipulators" at The American.

Update: Thanks to Don Boudreaux for the link, who also links to Bastiat's famous "Candlemakers' Petition," which gave me an idea for another way to make the argument about China's "currency manipulation":

1. If you wouldn't object to getting free light from the sun (even though that reduces output and employment for some domestic producers of candles, lights, lamps, lightbulbs, flashlights, electric utilities, etc.), then you likewise shouldn't object to getting free, or greatly "undervalued" goods from China as a result of its currency manipulation in favor of Americans purchasing Chinese imports.

2. If you think that China should be forced or pressured to revalue its currency to the advantage of U.S. companies competing with China, then you must also agree with Bastiat's facetious appeal to the French parliament advocating trade policy to protect the French candlemakers against the "ruinous competition of a foreign rival," which is none other than the sun:

"We ask you to be so good as to pass a law requiring the closing of all windows, dormers, skylights, inside and outside shutters, curtains, casements, bull's-eyes, deadlights, and blinds—in short, all openings, holes, chinks, and fissures through which the light of the sun is wont to enter houses, to the detriment of the fair industries with which, we are proud to say, we have endowed the country, a country that cannot, without betraying ingratitude, abandon us today to so unequal a combat."

Thursday, December 01, 2011

More Pot, Less Beer, and Fewer Traffic Fatalities

Here's an interesting study titled "Medical Marijuana Laws, Traffic Fatalities, and Alcohol Consumption," by economists D. Mark Anderson and Daniel Rees.  This is the abstract:

"To date, 16 states have passed medical marijuana laws, yet very little is known about their effects. Using state-level data, we examine the relationship between medical marijuana laws and a variety of outcomes. Legalization of medical marijuana is associated with increased use of marijuana among adults, but not among minors. In addition, legalization is associated with a nearly 9 percent decrease in traffic fatalities, most likely due to its impact on alcohol consumption. Our estimates provide strong evidence that marijuana and alcohol are substitutes."

From the conclusion:

"Why does legalizing medical marijuana reduce traffic fatalities? Alcohol consumption appears to play a key role. The legalization of medical marijuana is associated with a 6.4 percent decrease in fatal crashes that did not involve alcohol, but this estimate is not statistically significant at conventional levels. In comparison, the legalization of medical marijuana is associated with an almost 12 percent decrease in any-BAC fatal crashes per 100,000 licensed drivers, and an almost 14 percent decrease in high-BAC fatal crashes per 100,000 licensed drivers. 

The negative relationship between legalization of medical marijuana and traffic fatalities involving alcohol is consistent with the hypothesis that marijuana and alcohol are substitutes. In order to explore this hypothesis further, we examine the relationship between medical marijuana laws and alcohol consumption using data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and The Brewer’s Almanac. We find that the legalization of medical marijuana is associated with decreased alcohol consumption, especially by 20- through 29-year-olds. In addition, we find that legalization is associated with decreased beer sales, the most popular alcoholic beverage among young adults (Jones 2008)." 

HT: Jonathan Turley

Excluding Cash for Clunkers, November Car Sales Are the Highest Since June 2008, 2.5 Years Ago

Auto sales were released today by Autodata, and excluding the artificially high "cash for clunker" month of August 2009,  light vehicles sales in November were the strongest in any month since June 2008, almost two and-a-half years ago (see chart above).  On a seasonally adjusted annual rate, 13.63 million cars were sold last month, which was an 11% gain from the same month last year and almost a 3% improvement from October. 

Sales gains for November were led by Chrysler, which experienced a 44.5% increase over last year, followed by strong gains from Kia (39.1%), Volkswagen (28.7%), Madza (20.4%) and Nissan (19.4%).  Many of the luxury brands reported strong annual sales gains in November including Mercedes (46.2%), Land Rover (30.7%) and BMW (14.8%).    

Bottom Line: With another strong month for U.S. vehicle sales that are now at the highest level in almost two and-a-half years, the case for a fragile economy about to enter a double-dip recession seems pretty weak. 

One-Year ARMs Fall to Historical Low

The rates for one-year ARMs fell today to 2.78% this week, which sets a new record all-time low for the series going back to 1986.  To purchase the median priced existing home at $162,500 in October with a 20% down payment and a one-year ARM at 2.78%, the monthly payments for the first year would be only $532.78 for principal and interest on a before-tax basis, and less than $400 per month after taxes.  

How Terrible: Walmart Plans to "Dump" Six Stores, 1,600 Jobs and $21 Million in Charity on Wash. D.C.

Washington, D.C.'s unemployment rate has been rising over the last year, and at 11.1% in September was more than two percent above the 9% jobless rate for the country (which has been falling, see chart above).  Further, more people in the District are now unemployed - 37,034 - than at any other time in the city's history.  So you would think that if an employer promised to bring 1,600 permanent jobs and 600 construction jobs to the city, and also pledged $21 million in charitable donations over the next seven years, that District residents would be thankful, grateful and appreciative, and would welcome that employer with open arms.  

Well, think again if that employer is Walmart, and if the District resident is Washington Examiner columnist Jonetta Rose Barras who editorialized yesterday in a column titled "Occupied by Walmart":

"It was bad enough that District elected officials, particularly Mayor Vincent C. Gray, stood by as Walmart announced its intention to dump six stores into neighborhood commercial corridors, creating an environment ripe for the retail behemoth to bully small businesses. The executive exacerbated that short-sighted economic development strategy by signing the "Community Partnership Initiative."
 
Despite the peacocking by Gray and others after the agreement was signed, the District is receiving mostly crumbs. Walmart has committed to providing $21 million in charitable donations over the next seven years, an average of $3 million a year. That's a pittance."

MP: So instead of gratitude for the thousands of new jobs and millions of dollars of charity Walmart will bring to the District, Ms. Barras ungratefully describes that as "mostly crumbs" and is outraged because Walmart is "dumping six stores" into the District and giving "only" $21 million in charity to the city??  

I'm pretty sure that most District residents view this differently, and are grateful that Walmart is "dumping" six stores, 1,600 permanent jobs, 600 construction jobs and $21 million on the District.  Especially the 37,000 residents who are unemployed.

Update in response to some of the comments:

A few years ago, when Walmart opened a store on Chicago's west side it created more than 400 good-paying jobs, made the neighborhood safer and helped to revitalize and stabilize the area, which then attracted new stores including a Menards, a CVS pharmacy, two new banks and an Aldi Grocery Store. Local Chicago alderwomen Emma Mitts credited Walmart for attracting many new stores to the neighborhood, and says that "traffic is so heavy on the weekends that it's hard to get up and down the strip, and that's a good thing and I'm so grateful for it."

Although Walmart frequently gets blamed for putting local merchants out of business when it opens a new store, this story provides some evidence to the contrary - by stabilizing a rough area on Chicago's West Side and attracting thousand of customers for "everyday low prices," Walmart actually helped to attract new businesses to this Chicago neighborhood, including direct competitors like Menards, CVS and Aldi.  

In other words, Walmart provides many significantly "positive externalities" and "spillover benefits" to the communities in which it operates, even though it frequently gets more attention for some of the "negative externalities" and "spillover costs" it might impose. For neighborhoods like the west side of Chicago, it sure looks like the positive externalities (jobs, tax revenues, great safety, more commercial activity, etc.) far outweigh any negative externalities.