Steve Hayward: America's Vast Energy Resources
Professor Mark J. Perry's Blog for Economics and Finance
"When you buy a house, you’re not just committing to a mortgage. You are also promising to pay the future property taxes on that house. What drives those local property taxes are the future costs of paying state and local workers and retirees, particularly retirees’ pensions and health care. These costs are going in one direction: up.
| North Dakota County | October Jobless Rate |
|---|---|
| Williams County | 0.9% |
| Slope County | 1.1% |
| Mountrail County | 1.3% |
| McKenzie County | 1.4% |
| Billings County | 1.5% |
| Stark County | 1.5% |
| Dunn County | 1.7% |
| Bowman County | 1.9% |
| Oliver County | 1.9% |
| Steele County | 1.9% |
| Manufacturer | Nov. 2011 Transaction Price | Nov. 2010 Transaction Price | Percent Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chrysler | $29,128 | $28,436 | 2.40% |
| Ford | $32,174 | $30,027 | 7.20% |
| GM | $33,189 | $32,551 | 2.00% |
| Honda | $26,730 | $25,421 | 5.20% |
| Hyundai/Kia | $21,384 | $19,408 | 10.20% |
| Nissan | $27,613 | $26,784 | 3.10% |
| Toyota | $27,692 | $26,311 | 5.20% |
| Industry Average | $30,317 | $29,154 | 4.00% |
The chart above shows the bond market's inflation prediction since the beginning of the year, calculated as the weekly difference between the 10-year regular, nominal Treasury yield (data here) and the 10-year Treasury inflation-indexed yield (a measure of the real interest rate, data here), both on a constant maturity basis. From a yearly high of 2.62% in mid-April, the proxy for bond investors' inflation outlook has been trending downward, and reached a year-to-date low of 1.82% in late September. After rising above 2% for three weeks for the last week of October and the first two weeks of November, the inflation expectation spread has been below 2% for the last two weeks.
The chart above shows monthly inflation rate from the Billion Prices Project @ MIT over the period from the first of the year through October 31. According to the BPP website, the index is "designed to provide real-time information on major inflation trends, not to forecast official inflation announcements. We are constantly adding new categories of goods, but we do not cover 100% of CPI goods and services. The price of services, in particular, are not easy to find online and therefore are not included in our statistics."
Here's an interesting study titled "Medical Marijuana Laws, Traffic Fatalities, and Alcohol Consumption," by economists D. Mark Anderson and Daniel Rees. This is the abstract:
Auto sales were released today by Autodata, and excluding the artificially high "cash for clunker" month of August 2009, light vehicles sales in November were the strongest in any month since June 2008, almost two and-a-half years ago (see chart above). On a seasonally adjusted annual rate, 13.63 million cars were sold last month, which was an 11% gain from the same month last year and almost a 3% improvement from October.

Washington, D.C.'s unemployment rate has been rising over the last year, and at 11.1% in September was more than two percent above the 9% jobless rate for the country (which has been falling, see chart above). Further, more people in the District are now unemployed - 37,034 - than at any other time in the city's history. So you would think that if an employer promised to bring 1,600 permanent jobs and 600 construction jobs to the city, and also pledged $21 million in charitable donations over the next seven years, that District residents would be thankful, grateful and appreciative, and would welcome that employer with open arms.