Saturday, February 04, 2012

Some More Good Labor Market News

From yesterday's "Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business"

Employment activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew substantially in January, as ISM's Non-Manufacturing Employment Index registered 57.4 percent (see chart above, data here). This reflects an increase of 7.6 percentage points when compared to the seasonally adjusted 49.8 percent registered in December. Nine industries reported increased employment, five industries reported decreased employment, and four industries reported unchanged employment compared to December. Comments from respondents include: "Ramping up to meet increase in revenues due to expansion and acquisitions" and "More job awards."

The industries reporting an increase in employment in January — listed in order — are: Information; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Retail Trade; Construction; Transportation & Warehousing; Accommodation & Food Services; Wholesale Trade; Finance & Insurance; and Other Services. The industries reporting a reduction in employment in January are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Public Administration; Educational Services; Mining; and Health Care & Social Assistance."

MP: The 57.4% ISM service employment index in January was the fourth highest reading in the history of that series back to January 1998, and the highest level in almost six years, since 57.6% in February 2006.

In other positive labor market news this week:

1. Monster reported yesterday that its index of online job demand increased by 9% in January on an annual basis, with all metro areas reporting increases since January 2011.

2. The Conference Board reported on Wednesday that online advertised job vacancies increased by 61,300 in January, following a 126,000 increase in December.  Compared to a year earlier, total ads have increased by 5% and new ads by 14%.

HT to Robert Kuehl for the ISM report.

13 Comments:

At 2/04/2012 9:27 AM, Blogger Larry G said...

this is starting to look like an unmitigated disaster - ....for the Obama haters..that is...

:-0

 
At 2/04/2012 9:32 AM, OpenID moneyjihad said...

An increase in online job postings? I think that probably includes temp agency postings...

 
At 2/04/2012 10:00 AM, Blogger juandos said...

"this is starting to look like an unmitigated disaster - ....for the Obama haters..that is"...

No doubt it, your ability to read & comprehend simple English is questionable at best...

Lee Adler of the Wall Street Examiner notes: Meanwhile, the government’s own survey data show that 7.4 million fewer people have full time jobs today than was the case 4 years ago. Those 7 million jobs were the fake jobs spawned by the housing and credit bubbles. Those jobs were vaporized when the bubble economy collapsed. They are NEVER coming back. The “new normal” is just the old normal without the added froth. What we are left with is the bitter reality of fewer people carrying the tax load and more people needing government assistance. We have yet to see any real proof that the trends are improving enough to ameliorate those burdens on the economy...

 
At 2/04/2012 10:51 AM, Blogger Che is dead said...

"this is starting to look like an unmitigated disaster - ....for the Obama haters..that is..." -- Larry G

Having contempt for Obama does not mean that you don't have a real wish for the economy to improve. The country, and it's people, are far more important than the clown who is currently in charge.

 
At 2/04/2012 12:01 PM, Blogger Buddy R Pacifico said...

From the Conference Board report is an anomoly in "good labor market news":

"Among the top 10 occupation groups with the largest numbers of online advertised vacancies, demand for Office and Administrative Support occupations fell 52,200 to 426,800 after a gain of 15,900 in December. Largely responsible for the decline was lower demand for Executive Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Receptionists and Information Clerks, and Customer Service Representatives."

Customer Service Representatives were outsourced, and now many of the remaining may be automated of jobs. Companies such as Convergys are offering intelligent automation products for cutomer service.

BTW, companies such as Sykes and Convergys are leading the in employing work-at-home customer service reps.

 
At 2/04/2012 12:30 PM, Blogger juandos said...

Charles Biderman (of TrimTabs) notes that: "Either there is something massively changed in the income tax collection world, or there is something very, very suspicious about today’s BLS hugely positive number," adding, "Actual jobs, not seasonally adjusted, are down 2.9 million over the past two months. It is only after seasonal adjustments – made at the sole discretion of the Bureau of Labor Statistics economists – that 2.9 million fewer jobs gets translated into 446,000 new seasonally adjusted jobs"...

 
At 2/04/2012 12:57 PM, Blogger Buddy R Pacifico said...

juandos,

your link on the Trim Tabs article notes the divergence of increased jobs vs. lower witholdings. So, could the reductions in FICA paid have contributed to lower witholdings?

 
At 2/04/2012 1:26 PM, Blogger Che is dead said...

Sick of the BLS propaganda? Then do the following calculation with us: using BLS data, the US civilian non-institutional population was 242,269,[000] in January, an increase of 1.7 million month over month: apply the long-term average labor force participation rate of 65.8% to this number (because ... people are not retiring as the popular propaganda goes: in fact labor participation in those aged 55 and over has been soaring as more and more old people have to work overtime, forget retiring), and you get 159.4 million: that is what the real labor force should be. The BLS reported one? 154.4 million: a tiny 5 million difference. Then add these people who the BLS is purposefully ignoring yet who most certainly are in dire need of labor and/or a job to the 12.758 million reported unemployed by the BLS and you get 17.776 million in real unemployed workers. What does this mean? That using just the BLS denominator in calculating the unemployed rate of 154.4 million, the real unemployment rate actually rose in January to 11.5%. Compare that with the BLS reported decline from 8.5% to 8.3%. It also means that the spread between the reported and implied unemployment rate just soared to a fresh 30 year high of 3.2%. And that is how with a calculator and just one minute of math, one strips away countless hours of BLS propaganda. -- ZeroHedge

 
At 2/04/2012 3:01 PM, Blogger Benjamin said...

Whaddya know? I agree with Che is dead

"Having contempt for Obama does not mean that you don't have a real wish for the economy to improve. The country, and it's people, are far more important than the clown who is currently in charge."

I also hold Obama in contempt, for his runaway federal and military spending, and his cluelessness regarding monetary policy (although Bernanke runs the show there). He does not seem to understand free markets.

Is Romney better? Doubt it--he is already braying about even more federal spending, for defense, and shows no interest in monetary policy.

Ain't much to choose from.

 
At 2/04/2012 4:21 PM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

Che cites: "...that is how with a calculator and just one minute of math, one strips away countless hours of BLS propaganda."

Anyone can come up with almost any unemployment rate with one minute of math, while ignoring, e.g. the other 90,000 minutes.

Not all bureaucratic agencies are the same. To work as a "technocrat" at the BLS, you need at least a 3.5 GPA and normally at least a master's degree, e.g. in economics or statistics.

 
At 2/05/2012 9:38 AM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

Updated employment charts:

http://www.crgraphs.com/

 
At 2/05/2012 10:44 AM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

Each month, 125,000 to 150,000 jobs are needed just to keep up with U.S. population growth:

US Labor Market Surges, Jobless Rate Falls
February 3rd, 2012

Even with the additional jobs added to the labor market in January, the U.S. has fallen far short of replacing the 8.7 million jobs lost in the recession.

Nearly 13 million workers remain unemployed, while millions more are under-employed.

Analysts say the additional number of U.S. jobs the last two months are a sign the American economy is growing at a time when some other economies across the globe, such as in Europe, have virtually stalled, or slowed, as is the case in China and India.

 
At 2/06/2012 1:27 PM, Blogger juandos said...

"So, could the reductions in FICA paid have contributed to lower witholdings?"....

No ...

 

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