Obama's Intrade Odds: From 50% to 57% in 90 Days
Obama's Intrade odds for re-election have risen gradually and steadily from below 50% in early November to now about 57%.
CARPE DIEM
Professor Mark J. Perry's Blog for Economics and Finance
Monday, February 06, 2012
About Me
- Name: Mark J. Perry
- Location: Washington, D.C., United States
Dr. Mark J. Perry is a professor of economics and finance in the School of Management at the Flint campus of the University of Michigan. Perry holds two graduate degrees in economics (M.A. and Ph.D.) from George Mason University near Washington, D.C. In addition, he holds an MBA degree in finance from the Curtis L. Carlson School of Management at the University of Minnesota. In addition to a faculty appointment at the University of Michigan-Flint, Perry is also a visiting scholar at The American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C.
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11 Comments:
must be that pipeline decision...
the media is ready to re-crown him already
Four more years of his nostrils may be too much to bear, but perhaps less than four years of the press's blaming every one of Gingrich's or Romney's Obama-esque big government failures "free market" and "laissez-faire".
The "catholic" decision is going to hurt him badly and may cost him the election if he doesn't pull it back.
If he does not see this, then he deserves to lose.
He deserves to lose no matter what he does.
Romney will win, and the GOP will win a lot more Senate seats and more House seats, because he'll be viewed as too "moderate."
McCain did well, given the economy in 2008 and running a lousy campaign.
Romney will do much better, including capturing swing states, and he really wants the job.
Barack Obama's Job Approval Ratings Matter in the 2012 Election
2 days ago
Approval ratings are everything in an election year.
Presidents Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush all had approval ratings under 50%...They all lost their bid for a second term.
Every other president since polling like this began including Eisenhower, Nixon, Reagan, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush had an approval rating above 50% throughout their re-election year.
Fifty Percent is the magic mark.
As of January 29th, Gallup shows Obama's approval rating at 45%.
As of last week, only 18% polled were satisfied with the direction of the country.
The CBO recently released a report stating how unemployment could go above 9% again, a terrible sign for Obama.
His approval ratings on the economy are a mere 36%.
On top of all of that, his signature legislative achievement, ObamaCare, is still very unpopular.
The Homocrats have successfully managed to dupe the public that the failures of big government are failures of capitalism.
Ah well, countries come and go.
The evangelicals will vote for the avowed Christian who supports universal health care.
Not the Mormon cultist who does not (at least that is his latest position).
Could the evangelicals turn on Romney? Could be, could be.
WWJD? Ban the sick from hospital doors? Vote in a cultist over a true Christian?
Obama may have this one wrapped up already. He has been a mediocre president at best, but partisan politics and religion trumps reality in the USA.
From Gallup poll: More States Move to GOP in 2011
Seventeen states solidly or leaning Republican, up from 10 in 2010
Please keep in mind that Intrade had the R's taking the House at 44% only 6 months out from November 2010. We all know how that played out.
The polling for this cycle will be the most disingenuous we have ever seen. They will do everything they can to make sure the President is only slightly on top of the polls. If they know he has little chance (which the electoral college map would imply) their base won't show up at all (or even better they may be able to keep some conservatives home).
All we will be left with is a landslide Romney victory and the far left having no idea how they lost. Didn't we see this play out less than 2 years ago?
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