Monday, February 06, 2012

Employment Trends Index Gains in January

"The Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI) increased 0.73% in January to 105.81, from 105.04 in December (see chart above). The January figure is also up 5.9 percent from the same month a year ago.

“The Employment Trends Index has been improving rapidly for four straight months, suggesting somewhat more robust job growth is likely to continue in this quarter,” says Gad Levanon, Director of Macroeconomic Research at The Conference Board. “Beyond that we still remain cautious. We expect sluggish growth in economic activity in the first half of 2012 and therefore we do not foresee the strengthening of the labor market to be sustained in the second quarter of 2012.”

This month’s strength in the ETI was driven by positive contributions from four of the eight components. The improving indicators include Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now, Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry, Industrial Production, and Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales.  The Employment Trends Index aggregates eight labor-market indicators, each of which has proven accurate in its own area. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly."

MP: Some additional evidence that the U.S. labor market is showing some signs of strength in recent months, and will continue to improve at least through the first quarter of this year.  January marks the 24th consecutive month of year-over-year gains in the ETI following 30 straight months of decline.  

13 Comments:

At 2/06/2012 11:44 AM, Blogger morganovich said...

calculated risk had a good set of "recovery metrics" today.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/02/recovery-measures.html

extrapolating from their current trends, it looks like a couple years still to get back to pre recession real personal income and even longer on employment.

 
At 2/06/2012 11:45 AM, Blogger sethstorm said...


Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now

While that could mean anything, it is likely to mean that they want a perfect person instead of training up a person.



Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry

The only way this number improves is if it goes down, for it is mostly based on a mistrust of the person doing the work.

 
At 2/06/2012 12:41 PM, Blogger Benjamin said...

The economy is growing and inflation is dead.

Lots of room for the Fed to get aggressive.

 
At 2/06/2012 12:53 PM, Blogger juandos said...

Thank you Bruce Kasting...

The Labor Force Participation Rate a new record low on Friday...

(Record 1.2 Million People Fall Out Of Labor Force In One Month, Labor Force Participation Rate Tumbles To Fresh 30 Year Low)

If the current LFPR is, in fact, the new normal (I think it is), it has profound implications on the macro economic outlook for the USA. Virtually all of the economic models used by CBO, OMB, SSA and private economists are assuming that the long-term LFPR will be in the mid-to upper 60s. The consensus is 2-3% higher than where it is today...

 
At 2/06/2012 1:27 PM, Blogger morganovich said...

"The economy is growing and inflation is dead."

uh, no.

the economy (deflated with CPI) has been pancake flat for 2q's.

the only growth is in shenanigans at the BEA.

dow chemicals is the poster child.

volumes down, nominal revs up, all due to price hikes.

same with restaurants. 2-3% same store sales entirely driven by "food away from home" price inflation of 2.9%.

 
At 2/06/2012 2:20 PM, Blogger Benjamin said...

The peevish fixation--really a hysterical obsession--with inflation in some circles would be amusing, except that it qualifies as "monetary thinking" in certain gathering fringe elements of the GOP.

More worrisome, to win the GOP primary, there is now a prerequisite that a candidate appear slightly unhinged.

It is easy to imagine a slightly unhinged GOP candidate vowing adherence to a gold standard, or some other form of Theo-Monetarism.

If so, move your assets offshore. Thailand looks good.

 
At 2/06/2012 3:26 PM, Blogger juandos said...

"The peevish fixation--really a hysterical obsession--with inflation in some circles would be amusing, except that it qualifies as "monetary thinking" in certain gathering fringe elements of the GOP"....

Well not suprisingly pseudo benny commenting while his head is firmly established up his @$$ gives reality a miss by a wide margin...

ILLUSION OF RECOVERY – FEELINGS VERSUS FACTS

The last week has offered an amusing display of the difference between the cheerleading corporate mainstream media, lying Wall Street shills and the critical thinking analysts like Zero Hedge, Mike Shedlock, Jesse, and John Hussman. What passes for journalism at CNBC and the rest of the mainstream print and TV media is beyond laughable. Their America is all about feelings. Are we confident? Are we bullish? Are we optimistic about the future? America has turned into a giant confidence game. The governing elite spend their time spinning stories about recovery and manipulating public opinion so people will feel good and spend money. Facts are inconvenient to their storyline. The truth is for suckers. They know what is best for us and will tell us what to do and when to do it.

 
At 2/06/2012 4:47 PM, Blogger Paul said...

"More worrisome, to win the GOP primary, there is now a prerequisite that a candidate appear slightly unhinged."

As opposed to the Alinskyite you voted into office. The prerequisite for him to win was to hide his socialist roots and appear merely center left per his instruction manual, "Rules for Radicals."

I don't know where you come up with your nonsense. Romney really appears to you to be unhinged?

 
At 2/06/2012 6:21 PM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

Juandos cites: "...an amusing display of the difference between the cheerleading corporate mainstream media, lying Wall Street shills and the critical thinking analysts like Zero Hedge, Mike Shedlock, Jesse, and John Hussman."

Yes, they're all "amusing."

 
At 2/06/2012 6:23 PM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

We can worry about inflation after the depression.

 
At 2/06/2012 6:24 PM, Blogger Benjamin said...

Paul-

Romney does not appear unhinged, except for his braying that we must prevail in Afghanistan, and boost military spending.

Really? After 10 years he wants to try even more, with even larger budgets, to "win" in Opiumistan? To bring in even larger poppy revenues? Execute more Christians? Put more women into Islamic chains? This is lunacy.

Worse, Romney has hired as a security adviser a nut who wants to spend even more money on the US Navy, to counter the perceived Chinese threat. You see, Chjna believes it should have some say as to what happens right next to their borders and shores. The nerve!

More ships! (that can be sunk easily).

I see no way Romney, or Obama, can curtail federal spending.

That said, I probably will vote for Romney as the lesser of two evils.

 
At 2/06/2012 8:34 PM, Blogger juandos said...

"Yes, they're all "amusing.""...

Well pt the real problem as I see it is how to winnow out the real news nuggets from the vast fecal flows of fairy tales that is foisted off as news...

 
At 2/06/2012 10:11 PM, Blogger sethstorm said...


Benjamin said...

Perhaps China is the threat and other countries expect the US to counter them.

China backs some very hostile regimes under the "trade, not conquer banner", especially in Africa. They also look to take over Europe by making sure that nobody there will oppose China.

Romney's opponents on the other hand are too willing to be China's friend(and the friend of other like-minded and pliant-worker Third World regimes) at the expense of the First World.

That, and there's nowhere in the world to hide. Unlike other countries, the US can make it very painful, very fast for people that wish to hide things in other jurisdictions.

 

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