Sunday, December 11, 2011

INTRADE ODDS: Newt Closes in on Mitt

Current Intrade odds have Romney's chances down to 40.2% and Gingrich's chances up to 36.5%, which is the smallest-ever Romney-Gingrich gap at 3.7%.

26 Comments:

At 12/11/2011 2:52 PM, Blogger NormanB said...

Now, if we could only meld these two into one we'd have a real candidate: Newt's ideas with Mitt's savoir faire.

 
At 12/11/2011 4:41 PM, Blogger PFCT said...

Hey Norman - 1/2 of either of these guys is 200% better than what we got now!

 
At 12/11/2011 5:01 PM, Blogger Bruce Hall said...

Obama has demonstrated that glibness does not equate to capability.

 
At 12/11/2011 5:09 PM, Blogger arbitrage789 said...

If Newt wins the nomination, it'll be a "cakewalk" for Obama.

 
At 12/11/2011 6:02 PM, Blogger AIG said...

"If Newt wins the nomination, it'll be a "cakewalk" for Obama."

I think Newt can demolish Obama quite easily. I think Obama demolishes himself every day with his absurd speeches on how ATMs and the internet destroy jobs.

I'd say at this point I'm content with either Romney or Gingrich. I'd have been much happier with someone else (maybe Mitch Daniels), but anything is better than Obama (as long as its not Ron Paul)

 
At 12/11/2011 6:06 PM, Blogger Benjamin said...

The comedic gift that just does not stop giving: The GOP Gong Show for President!

Who will be this week's boner for GOP voters? Perry? Cain? Trump? Bachman? Palin? Christy? OOOOh, I am in love all over again every week!!!

Now, for this week, it's Gingrich. Who took $1.6 million from Satan himself, in the institutional form of Freddie Mac.

Let's see, we want to be "against" government intrusion into the markets, and take $1.6 million from Freddie Mac. Oh yeah, baby, I believe in Newtie.

The image of Romney, endlessly snubbed and cuckolded by GOP voters, grows more lugubrious day by day. Jeez, I've seen guys taken crudely by gay motorcycle gangs with more pride than Romney.

I wonder who will the GOP love next week? If even for a few hours or true bliss.

 
At 12/11/2011 8:26 PM, Blogger PBC said...

I'll bet anyone $10,000 that Newt won't be the next President.

 
At 12/11/2011 8:29 PM, Blogger Mark J. Perry said...

Open an account at Intrade.com and take a $10,000 position.

 
At 12/11/2011 9:38 PM, Blogger Hydra said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

 
At 12/11/2011 9:41 PM, Blogger Hydra said...

My wife is pretty conservative, and she describes the Republican nomination process as a bad reality show.

 
At 12/11/2011 9:45 PM, Blogger Hydra said...

Newt is a human hand grenade. An idea fountain without a filter. Republicans can re-elect Obama by choosing newt.

 
At 12/11/2011 9:46 PM, Blogger Hydra said...

Jeb for president.

 
At 12/11/2011 9:58 PM, Blogger juandos said...

"If Newt wins the nomination, it'll be a "cakewalk" for Obama"...

Hmmm, is the MSM going to carry the Kenyan Kommie Klown's water again arbitrage789? Its paifully obvious he can't stand on either his domestic or foreign accomplishments...

"Jeb for president"...

As in Bush?

Doesn't suprise me you're a R.I.N.O.phile hydra...

 
At 12/12/2011 1:33 AM, Blogger arbitrage789 said...

Jaundos, & AIG:

Registered Democrats worship the ground that Obama walks on.

And at least a third of independents believe almost everything Obama says.


(This is not to say that I believe much of what the man says).

 
At 12/12/2011 8:37 AM, Blogger Paul said...

Benji,

"OOOOh, I am in love all over again every week!!!"

As opposed to 2008, when you were in love with the buffoon who thinks ATM's and the internet cost jobs, while unemployment checks create them.

 
At 12/12/2011 10:33 AM, Blogger morganovich said...

you guys claiming newt would get run over by obama do realize that there will be debates, right?

gingrich debating obmama will be like watching a flame thrower used on a snow man.

obama has some severe structural problems with this election. the youthquake that he rode so handily last time are all now out of work. they graduated and didn't get jobs. they are pissed and demoralized.

they will not turn out in number like they did last time.

the middle has left him.

he's VERY beatable. he's got strongly disapprove numbers in the 40's and strongly approve numbers in the low 20's.

a lot of this election has already been settled.

 
At 12/12/2011 11:19 AM, Blogger Paul said...

Morganovich,

I agree with everything you wrote, but worry about Gingrich's baggage and his x quality that animates the media to go after him much the same way they went after Sarah Palin.

Example, ignoramuses like Benji know Gingrich took money from Freddie Mac, but don't have a clue Obama's campaign received more money from the GSE's than all the GOP candidates combined because the media is not going to give them this information. Meanwhile, Obama's campaign is going to have a billion dollars to spend dredging up Gingrich's past while the media ignores or whitewashes Obama's personal corruption and radicalism in the same manner they did in '08.

That said, Romney is even worse. I can't believe it's down to these 2 guys. Whoever the nominee is, he better have one hell of a VP pick.

 
At 12/12/2011 12:03 PM, Blogger Benjamin said...

Oh sure, bring on Newtie.

Freddie Mac is the devil incarnate, and Newtie took $1.6 million from the devil, but Newtie is just fine.

Oh, that washes.

And will the Christian Right back a Catholic? When Obama is an avowed Christian?

Catholics are smelly urbanites, with Italian or Irish surnames--not appealing to the GOP.

The GOP (Grifters on Parade) are hoist on their own petard!!

 
At 12/12/2011 12:44 PM, Blogger morganovich said...

paul-

i think gingrich's past is far enough past that it may matter less than many claim. there is a sort of informal statute of limitation on this stuff and the media dredging ti up has mostly backfired so far by energizing supporters and get them pissed off about media.

barry is gonna be in real trouble against any republican, and at least, with newt, we have a bright guy who understands DC and will be capable and ready to engage in some severe bureaucratic rollback.

romney is just another bland purveyor of platitudes who would be a democrat in any state but mass.

bunny-

are you off your meds or something? you seem much more incoherent, ranting, and ludicrous lately.

 
At 12/12/2011 12:46 PM, Blogger Paul said...

Benji,

"Oh, that washes.


In a sense it does wash because will have to choose between your boyfriend who is up to his neck in GSE funds and cronies, or Gingrich who was on Freddies' payroll. Gingrich is at least good on some issues, your boyfriend is a disaster on every front.

"And will the Christian Right back a Catholic? When Obama is an avowed Christian?"

God, you are a such a moron. I'm Catholic, National Review was founded by a Catholic, scores of prominent conservatives are Catholic.

 
At 12/12/2011 12:46 PM, Blogger AIG said...

"Registered Democrats worship the ground that Obama walks on.
And at least a third of independents believe almost everything Obama says."

Yes. But in every population there will be at least 30% that are mentally deficient. You're not going to get away from that. But all you need is 50%+1 to win, not 100%.

If Obama won 53% of the vote in 2008, it is very likely that he lost a chunk of that electorate, especially since the main reason people voted for him last time was that he was black, he wasn't GWB, John McCain was GWB, and Sarah Palin was damn scary (I mean the fact that John McCain won even as many votes as he did was astounding!). His selling points in 2008 were government accountability, cutting waste, and getting out of wars.

He's got nothing to run on this time other than...populism of the far left. That will attract the usual 30% of morons in this country, no doubt.

So this election is ours to lose. Either Romney or Newt is fine by me at this point, since there is really no other alternative.

 
At 12/12/2011 5:48 PM, Blogger sethstorm said...

As long as it's someone north of the Mason-Dixon line and east of the Mississippi, fine.

Gingrich represents the worst of the South by his wish to return slavery to the US any way possible.

 
At 12/12/2011 9:30 PM, Blogger kleht said...

Newt is closing in on Romney, for sure, but it's a slow saunter. I have not seen the spread down to 3.7% yet. As of now the spread is 6.5% - 43.1% vs. 36.6%. I may be sticking my foot in my mouth, but my money is not on Newt. He will probably close the gap a bit more, but then I suspect the criticism will begin to mount.

His ideas seem to hint at potentially attaching a rocket to the U.S. and slamming the country into the ground, if the ideas were ever implemented. As an accountant, I have seen newbies in control of corporations do just that. And it was predictable - and disatrous.

His ideas on a greatly lowered flat tax system should easily do the trick.

A flat tax vs. a progressive tax system is not the problem

 
At 12/13/2011 11:49 AM, Blogger morganovich said...

first we hear:

"Yes. But in every population there will be at least 30% that are mentally deficient. You're not going to get away from that. But all you need is 50%+1 to win, not 100%."

then seth claims:

"As long as it's someone north of the Mason-Dixon line and east of the Mississippi, fine.

Gingrich represents the worst of the South by his wish to return slavery to the US any way possible."

and proves AIG correct.

 
At 12/13/2011 11:52 AM, Blogger morganovich said...

"A flat tax vs. a progressive tax system is not the problem"

i disagree.

i presume to are going to say that the problem is that we overspend.

however, i think the reason we overspend is our incredibly progressive tax system (by far most progressive in the OECD).

if 51% pay no taxes, then of course they support all new spending. why not? it's free stuff.

give them some skin i the game, and they will start to care.

 
At 12/13/2011 10:38 PM, Blogger kleht said...

"I presume to are going to say that the problem is that we overspend.
I think the reason we overspend is our incredibly progressive tax system (by far most progressive in the OECD)."


Actually, I was not going to say we overspend. We've had the progressive system in effect for many decades and overspending has not been a real problem, until more recent times.


"If 51% pay no taxes, then of course they support all new spending. why not? it's free stuff."

Nothing's really free stuff. Everyone working pays at least 7.65%, up to $106,800 (in 2011), offset by itemized deductions and credits and whatnot. And it's not just the middle class and poor. The wealthy and corporations which don't pay any taxes, are part of the 51%, I think.


"Give them some skin i the game, and they will start to care."

Sounds as if you have never been poor. I was born in the depression. I grew up in the Appalachia. Really hard-working people far outnumber the lazy, in my experience.

It's really unrealistic to expect everyone to get their fair share as a result of hard work. After all, 3-4% unemployment, at minimum, is practically a guarantee. It's extraordinarily difficult to avoid a lower unemployment percentage without rampant inflation.

 

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