Saturday, December 10, 2011

Interactive Guide/Map for the Republican Race

From The Economist:

"Our interactive map provides the latest polling data for the Republican candidates, showing who is leading the race in each state and the date of the polls. It includes a drop-down election calendar containing all the key dates, and as the primaries progress we will update the figures for each presidential hopeful as they move towards securing the nomination as the Republican Party’s candidate of choice. Once a state has voted, we will enter all the results on the map. You can also watch this space for any important developments in the race."

Here are the current polling results from the first four primary states, showing a strong lead for Gingrich in Iowa, South Carolina and Florida, and nationally as well:

Iowa (December 6) - Gingrich: 33%, Romney: 20%

New Hampshire (December 6) - Romney 35%, Gingrich: 26%

South Carolina (December 6) - Gingrich: 43%, Romney 20%

Florida (December 8) - Gingrich: 35%, Romney: 22%

National Average (December 7) - Gingrich: 33%, Romney: 21.3%

9 Comments:

At 12/10/2011 11:22 PM, Blogger Benjamin said...

The GOP Gong Show promises to be a real pot-boiler. GOP voters seem to get fresh boners every week, be it Gingrich, Bachmann, Palin, Trump, Cain--but never Ted Danson (Romney).

In recent decades, the GOP convention has been a TV show-coronation. But who knows? Maybe we will go into the GOP convention with no leading candidate. A brokered convention!

The GOP primaries have proved the best entertainment of the year.

Some say if Ron Paul runs it will kill the GOP for 2012. I know I might vote for Ron Paul.

 
At 12/11/2011 8:27 AM, Blogger Larry G said...

the Republican nomination process this year is fascinating.

One view is that the Party itself has moved so far to the right that whoever emerges as the Primary/Convention winner will be far, far to the right of independent voters.

The conventional wisdom of some is that Obama is so bad that ANY of these candidates will just blow him away.

How many really believe that?

 
At 12/11/2011 11:34 AM, OpenID Sprewell said...

Gingrich has zero chance of getting the nomination or beating Obama. He's just a balloon that the GOP put up for the leftie media to attack, and they've obviously fallen for the bait with the way they're rabidly going after him now, while the better candidates can work in behind him, without taking the full frontal attack he's taking. This time four years ago, Giuliani was leading in the polls and I knew he would never get the nomination. Intrade still has Romney in the lead with Ron Paul and Huntsman in third and fourth, sounds about right to me, except I'd have Gingrich at zero and don't rule out Bachmann. Huckabee won Iowa four years as the "Christian" candidate, I could see Bachmann doing the same.

 
At 12/11/2011 12:39 PM, Blogger juandos said...

"Gingrich has zero chance of getting the nomination or beating Obama"...

Don't wet yourself sprewell over your flawed (as time information about the present administration continues to spill out) analysis of Gingrich's chances...

I really don't find any problems with your logic though, its the landscape that is continually changing is what makes your otherwise astute analysis problematic...

The problem right now while there is a primary season is that Romney is perceived by many as 'Obama lite' and much of his track record in government seems to indicate it...

Like you I have some very serious qualms about a Gingrich nomination...

"He's just a balloon that the GOP put up for the leftie media to attack"...

Gingrich and the GOP establishment are very far apart from each other if not outright hostile to each other right now...

Still I'm interested in who you think the better candidtate might be...

In regards to beating Obama, well that should be child's play considering Obama's skill sets...

The MSM carried Obama's water for him and if it comes to a face to face debate what's Obama going to stand on?

His domestic policies?

His foreign policies?

 
At 12/11/2011 1:20 PM, OpenID Sprewell said...

Juandos, you need to make up your mind. ;) It doesn't matter what comes out about Obama's administration, Gingrich can't beat him unless Obama's been pulling a Cain, :D which is why you probably have qualms about Newt also. The landscape hasn't changed at all: it's just that there's a lot of noise till the primaries actually start, just like four years ago. I'm no fan of Romney, but he is a strong candidate in a general election. As for Gingrich's relationship with the GOP, Romney is the establishment candidate, after Daniels pulled out, and I don't know how much they rigged it to put Newt on top for now. But it doesn't matter how much they like him if they just put him up to take the leftie media arrows this month. :)

I think the best candidate is a Mormon, either Huntsman or Romney, with my preference for Huntsman. I'd gladly vote for Paul in a general election- it would be my first time voting for a Republican nominee for President, as I usually vote Libertarian- but Ron would get demolished by Obama. I agree with you that Obama has a much more difficult road this time, because he actually has a record that is pretty bad, but if he can make it about the other party's candidate, which the MSM will gladly help him do, he can still win. The debates don't count for much, Newt could technically beat him in all those arguments and still lose in the court of public opinion because he's too "mean." Unfortunately, those are the dumbos who get to vote, so you have to account for that if you want to win.

 
At 12/11/2011 1:27 PM, Blogger Larry G said...

the basic problem is that the GOP has moved far to the right.

much of the right dislikes Mormons.

they dislike (in theory) philanderers ......

they dislike those they consider "soft" on immigration

they dislike those who say there were in favor of Fannie/Freddie before they were opposed to it...

they dislike those who supported individual mandates...

they like Neocons like Santorum

and Bachman...

and they love folks who would cut whole Federal Agencies and kill MediCare..

but ...the folks who ultimately decide the election are not the right wing nor the left wing bases but the folks in the middle - the left lean, right lean and no leans.

right center or left center can win ...depending.....

but I agree with Sprewell....

I cannot imagine the middle voting for Newt.... it's seems preposterous on it's face.

but this all goes back to how far right the GOP has moved since Bush....

 
At 12/11/2011 5:01 PM, Blogger Che is dead said...

I just hope that the Democrats are foolish enough to run Obama.

 
At 12/11/2011 10:01 PM, Blogger juandos said...

Stick to economics and business sprewell, you're pretty good at that but your grip on politics is fairly problematic it seems...

 
At 12/11/2011 10:57 PM, OpenID Sprewell said...

How so, Juandos? Easy to call others out when you make no call yourself. Do you honestly think Obama would lose to Santorum or Gingrich or Paul? As bad as Obama is, he'd beat all three of them easily and he'd probably beat Perry or Bachmann also, if only because Rick or Michele would fuck it up with one of their unforced errors. That leaves Mitt and Jon as the two Mormons who'd actually run a disciplined campaign and appeal to a wide base for a general election, as both do well with independents and even some Democrats. I prefer Jon because he has a better record to run on, but Mitt is more likeable and would pull in more superficial voters. If everybody is a RINO to you, then you're not going to like anybody anyway.

My favorite is Gary Johnson, but since he can't win, I just want somebody who won't veto Cut, Cap, and Balance or big spending cuts from a Republican congress. Considering Mitt keeps running around telling all the voter groups that he won't cut anything, not even defense, I wonder about him possibly pulling that veto out, but since it would be political suicide for him to go against a Republican Congress, I'm willing to trust he won't. In any case, Ronald Reagan isn't running in this election, so if you're waiting for him, I'm not the one with the problems. ;)

 

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