Thursday, December 01, 2011

Excluding Cash for Clunkers, November Car Sales Are the Highest Since June 2008, 2.5 Years Ago

Auto sales were released today by Autodata, and excluding the artificially high "cash for clunker" month of August 2009,  light vehicles sales in November were the strongest in any month since June 2008, almost two and-a-half years ago (see chart above).  On a seasonally adjusted annual rate, 13.63 million cars were sold last month, which was an 11% gain from the same month last year and almost a 3% improvement from October. 

Sales gains for November were led by Chrysler, which experienced a 44.5% increase over last year, followed by strong gains from Kia (39.1%), Volkswagen (28.7%), Madza (20.4%) and Nissan (19.4%).  Many of the luxury brands reported strong annual sales gains in November including Mercedes (46.2%), Land Rover (30.7%) and BMW (14.8%).    

Bottom Line: With another strong month for U.S. vehicle sales that are now at the highest level in almost two and-a-half years, the case for a fragile economy about to enter a double-dip recession seems pretty weak. 

9 Comments:

At 12/02/2011 2:28 AM, Blogger Ruby Claire said...

13.63 million cars ?






Bill of Sales forms

Sd

 
At 12/02/2011 6:45 AM, Blogger Cloudesley Shovell said...

Without Cash for Clunkers artificially shifting sales forward, car sales most likely would have recovered sooner than they did.

 
At 12/02/2011 9:45 AM, Blogger morganovich said...

i'm not so sure you can draw the conclusion you do.

auto sales were heavily depressed (and still are).

there is a certain amount of pent up demand as cars age etc. if the light vehicle fleet look anything like the truck fleet (which is at record age and claimed by many in the industry to be unsustainable) then the uptick may be more about obsolescence than recovery.

it's also a tiny part of the economy. it's pretty difficult to make a broad economic claim from such a small datapoint.

note that the labor force participation rate dropped again.

 
At 12/02/2011 10:09 AM, Blogger Hydra said...

With interest rates this low, a new car is a bargain now, assuming you have a job. For cars and homes (for many people) it is the payment, not the price that matters.

 
At 12/02/2011 10:25 AM, Blogger VangelV said...

Bottom Line: With another strong month for U.S. vehicle sales that are now at the highest level in almost two and-a-half years, the case for a fragile economy about to enter a double-dip recession seems pretty weak.

I wouldn't say that. The labour participation rate is at historical low rates and still falling. The states and federal government are insolvent. Unfunded liabilities for the federal government stand at more than $100 trillion and the federal deficit as measured by GAAP standards is running at around 30% of GDP. Savings are low and more people are a few pay cheques away from insolvency than ever before. I believe that you had a posting that showed that one in seven individuals is getting food stamps. The bond market has topped and the banking system is drowning in a sea of derivative instruments. The commodity clearing system does not seem to be working.

You ignore all of the above issues and conclude that a recession is unlikely because auto sales, thanks to a lot of incentive spending by the manufacturers, are only 2 million units less than the pre-crisis sales levels?

 
At 12/02/2011 10:45 AM, Blogger juandos said...

Mean while over at government motors where central planning is alive and well we have the following from Zer0Hedge: GM Channel Stuffing Surges To All Time Record

 
At 12/02/2011 11:17 AM, Blogger VangelV said...

Mean while over at government motors where central planning is alive and well we have the following from Zer0Hedge: GM Channel Stuffing Surges To All Time Record.

You have an election. Can't have Obama and all the other statists that supported the GM bailout looking bad.

 
At 12/02/2011 5:52 PM, Blogger juandos said...

"You have an election. Can't have Obama and all the other statists that supported the GM bailout looking bad"...

Kind of late for that vangeIV don't you think?

I mean if one considers the real situation in employment then Obama should be done...

 
At 12/07/2011 4:27 AM, Blogger gaurav said...

Without Cash for Clunkers artificially shifting sales forward, car sales most likely would have recovered sooner than they did. doral real estate

 

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