Tuesday, November 29, 2011

While Nation Struggles, There's One Miracle State

The chart above shows the "Coincident Economic Activity Indexes" for the U.S. and a sample of U.S. states (New York, Florida, California, Arizona, Minnesota, Illinois, and Wisconsin).  The coincident economic indexes are based on four variables: nonfarm payroll employment, the unemployment rate, average hours worked in manufacturing, and wages and salaries.  

While the current economic conditions in most states, and the country as a whole, remain below their pre-recession levels in 2007, there's one miracle state (see red line) whose economic activity index is 17% above the pre-recession level.  If the Obama administration is really interested in putting thousands of  Americans to work at "shovel ready" jobs, it might want to look to the "miracle state" and see how they did it; it's a formula that could easily be replicated in many areas around the country.   

11 Comments:

At 11/30/2011 12:53 AM, Blogger Alessandro Machi said...

lol, so you made me do the research.

North Dakota has their own state owned bank.

 
At 11/30/2011 1:46 AM, Blogger Unknown said...

" If the Obama administration is really interested in putting thousands of Americans to work at "shovel ready" jobs, it might want to look to the "miracle state" and see how they did it; it's a formula that could easily be replicated around the country."

Sorry, this was dumb.

1. It already IS being replicated around the country, in areas with similar oil formations.
2. That said, it can't be replicated everywhere around the country, for the simple reason that not all areas of the country happen to have geologic formations similar to the Bakken conveniently lying beneath them.

 
At 11/30/2011 1:52 AM, Blogger Unknown said...

It's ironic how Mark posts all these articles pointing out oil and gas booms in various states (ND, OH, PA, etc.) and all the jobs they create, and then in another article tells us the formula of one of these states somehow isn't being replicated elsewhere ... even though just a day or two ago he probably posted an article about the formula being replicated elsewhere.

 
At 11/30/2011 6:54 AM, Blogger Ed R said...

Yes, in any sample of (say 50) entities of varying sizes some will be above the mean and some below. And, believe it or not, one of them will stand out as the highest above the mean. It is likely that the one most above the mean will be one of the smallest.

ND has some immediately relevant geographic advantages: It is a farm state and agricultural prices have been near record levels; and there is a great deal of oil under its ground.

Not sure what other lessons we should learn from this. Does ND has a superior political system or is it just a lucky outlier??

What did Obama have to do with it?

 
At 11/30/2011 10:25 AM, Blogger Buddy R Pacifico said...

"Not sure what other lessons we should learn from this. Does ND has a superior political system or is it just a lucky outlier??"

North Dakota's has comprehensive sales and income tax incentives to attract and establish private employment in the state.

"What did Obama have to do with it?"

Nothing, because ND is focused on private employment gains, and Mr. Obama is tepid, at most, in this area.

 
At 11/30/2011 10:57 AM, Blogger morganovich said...

" If the Obama administration is really interested in putting thousands of Americans to work at "shovel ready" jobs, it might want to look to the "miracle state" and see how they did it; it's a formula that could easily be replicated around the country."

this is pretty hard to swallow.

ND is a special case. it has a tiny workforce, small overall economy, and found big energy deposits.

how does this help mississippi? where's the oil and gas?

how does this help california? even if they went buck wild on drilling, the rest of the economy is just too big for it to move the needle much and there are way too many unemployed for it to make much of a dent.

this strategy would not work in pretty much any other state.

you might as well ask greece why it isn't like norway.

 
At 11/30/2011 11:04 AM, Blogger Tom said...

Amazing what 7% growth can do. It will double the ND economy in about 10 years.

How do we get the US economy to grow at 7%? Answer: cut government in half, including regulation cuts.

Freeze government spending, and cut regulations in half, for 10 years, while the rest of the economy grows, making government 30% of GDP instead of the current 60% (spending + regulation cost).

We could grow our way out of the deficit, and begin paying down the national debt at a fast pace. Unemployment would fade to a shadow.

Federal revenues on a $30 trillion economy, at 16% of GDP, would be $4.8 trillion, at 14% of GDP and revenues would be $4.2 trillion.

Then keep the growth going, and double the economy again, to $60 trillion by 2032.

 
At 11/30/2011 12:23 PM, Blogger Marko said...

I recall seeing an analysis of job production that would occur if the government would open the ANWR in Alaska to drilling. I don't recall the numbers, but it would create a significant number of jobs in every state of the union, not just in Alaska. The same must be true of the ND drilling. Allowing drilling in ANWR, more drilling off shore and getting out of the way of drilling inland would create jobs and productivity across the country.

By interfering with all this, Obama is somehow "helping" us all.

 
At 11/30/2011 3:00 PM, Blogger Pulverized Concepts said...

The Fighting Sioux hockey team has a 6-7-1 record and is unranked in Div.I college hockey. That's the real index of success in North Dakota and it's not good.

 
At 11/30/2011 6:50 PM, Blogger Roberto said...

North Dakota was doing pretty well before the Bakken boom because they have a balanced budget. They are probably doing better than other states that have similar resources because of that, although I haven't done the research.

 
At 11/30/2011 9:53 PM, Blogger Austro-Contrarian Capitalist said...

I concur with Alessandro Machi. The banking system in North Dakota is different than all other states. ND basically has its own central bank - which doesn't rip off its people like the criminal Federal Reserve banking system does at the federal level.

 

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