New Jobless Claims Fall to Lowest Level Since 2008
WASHINGTON – "New applications for unemployment benefits fell sharply last week as General Motors and other manufacturers skipped their usual summer shutdowns. The Labor Department said Thursday that new claims dropped by 29,000 to 429,000, the lowest level since August 2008 (see chart above). It was the second straight week that initial claims dropped sharply and the third drop in the last four weeks. Claims fell by 17,000 in the previous week."
MP: The two-week drop of -46,000 initial jobless claims was the largest in a year, and brought the new claims number to 429,000, the lowest level since the week ending August 23, 2008.
28 Comments:
this is still not a great number.
the employment/population ratio remains pretty much right on the lows.
(it's 58.5%, the low was 58.2%, prior to this recession, it has not been below 62% in over 20 years)
the average workweek slid into decline in the empire state manufacturing survey this morning, though employment was still slightly positive though it has now slowed for 3 months.
http://www.newyorkfed.org/survey/empire/Empire2010/empiresurvey_20100715.html
The numbers were not all rainbows and sunshine:
1) The previous week was revised upward by 4,000 AGAIN! The results are consistently being revised upwards. I suspect this week's results will be revised upwards again.
2) Seasonal adjustments were very large on a holiday shortened week. The raw number was up by 45K. I'm also somewhat disappointed that you chose to use the single week figure rather than the 4 wk moving average especially since this was a holiday shortened week with a large seasonal adjustment.
3) Continuing claims (SA) were up sharply at +247,000.
morgan and junk
You are constantly negative and nearly as often wrong...
kj-
constantly wrong?
what basis do you have for that claim?
go back and read the past posts. we were both calling for slowing growth and a weak recovery when this blog and board was calling for a V.
now that the slowdown is obvious in all the manufacturing and spending numbers, we've been shown to be right.
so what are you talking about?
if you have something to contribute, then by all mean, lay it out.
Dr. Perry needs to start training his guns on the Fed and the need for quantitative easing.
Yesteryear's battles are the fiscal deficit and affirmative action and blah, blah, blah.
Unless the Fed gets aggressive, we are going to see a long deflationary recession.
The right-wing is fighting yesteryear's wars. Both domestically and internationally.
Of course, new unemployment claims will spike upward by 700,000 just as soon as census workers become unemployed within the coming 30-45 days or so. Yes, the unemployment news overall is grim and will likely remain so for the balance of the decade. Americans without jobs now may never work again unless they emigrate to other countries where work may or may not be more plentiful. Sorry, the unemployment outlook is horrible, frightening, and real...
We Continue to Bleed Jobs
Note the the period contained the July 4 holiday. With one less day to apply a decline would be expected and may not reflect an improving job market. This is another in a long list of head fakes.
Despite the happy talk so common here it has been years since we have had a six month period in which job gains averaged the 125,000 to 150,000 a month needed to maintain employment. We continue to bleed jobs all be it less that it was. It will be years before unemployment goes below 7 percent. Unless of course, they redefine unemployment which they have done before. Discouraged workers, before John Kennedy, used to be counted as unemployment.
I suppose Dr. McKibbon didn't read the June labour report. seem to recall about 400K+ census workers being laid off.
not sure how he gets another 700K to be fired. they didn't even hire 700K census workers, so how can they fire them?
and Dr. Perry, this is kind of funny, but the word verification was "ponsi", not quite "ponzi" but close. gotta love randomness.
Monetary policy can't get much more accommodative. Now, it's up to the Obama Administration to (finally) make job creation the top priority and realize how important the private sector is to the survival of federal, state, and local governments.
Unfortunately, there's not much government can do now, since it squandered trillions of dollars and created massive inefficiencies in the macroeconomy. However, government can stop attacking businesses and instead note their value to society. Also, lifting uncertainty about taxes would help.
"not sure how he gets another 700K to be fired. they didn't even hire 700K census workers, so how can they fire them?"
This is the most likely the correct number, based on calculations similar to those used by the clowns at the White House Council of Economic Advisers.
I believe many of them have been busy counting people in these areas.
It's nice to see that General Motors is recognized for positive results in the economy for a change. Quite a few people did not believe that could happen.
"Unless the Fed gets aggressive, we are going to see a long deflationary recession"...
ROFLMAO!
"New Jobless Claims Fall to Lowest Level Since 2008"...
More BLS spin?
"It's nice to see that General Motors is recognized for positive results in the economy for a change. Quite a few people did not believe that could happen"...
Well it was lucky for 'Government' Motors that there was a whole lot of Prius fraud going on followed by the the Toyota shakedown by Congress otherwise it might have been a different story...
More on what I think is BLS spin on the jobs numbers...
From the Investors Business Daily:
Real Joblessness Grimmer Than Gov't Stats
I wonder if the people who comment here are
unemployed
retired
independently wealthy
employed
students
housewives
incarcerated or
committed
or none of the above
or some combination
juandos,
If the sudden acceleration problem can be traced to driver error, and Toyotas have that problem more than other brands, what does that say about the people who purchase Toyotas?
Personally, I don't like to see any company have problems. That includes Toyota.
Given Juandos choice of avatar, and incoherent grunts, "incarcerated or committed" may apply.
Juandos: Are you on the inside or the outside? For how long?
"If the sudden acceleration problem can be traced to driver error, and Toyotas have that problem more than other brands, what does that say about the people who purchase Toyotas?"
It says alot about the power of suggestion, and the possibility of a shakedown payday.
morganovich, i always appreciate your perspective. keep it up!
When W. Bush became president, every time he spoke about how bad things were the main stream press slammed him for killing jobs with his pessimism. I recall the NYT I believe saying every time he opened his mouth he was killing 100k jobs. Remember all that - jobless recovery?
What is sauce for the goose should be sauce for the gander. Obummer's slamming of capitalism, profit, "rich people", big business, insurance companies, the chamber of commerce, the succesful, etc., hurts job creation, surely as much as the much milder and pro business statements of Bush just 10 years ago or so. Let's slam the president for that. He won't get the message, but maybe he will head for the exit that much sooner . . .
Paul,
Who was the California Highway State trooper who killed his family in a runaway Lexus trying to shakedown? Those troopers are some of the most highly trained law enforcement drivers in the country. Anomoly? Maybe. But it does make you wonder.
"what does that say about the people who purchase Toyotas?"...
Walt G now that's the billion dollar question and I just knew you would touch on it...
I had to wonder myself...
"I don't like to see any company have problems. That includes Toyota"...
Exactly right sir! There are people involved try to earn a living and the amount of 'ambualnce chasing' this supposed Toyota problem could engender might impact on that...
Meanwhile thinking folks are hoping to cap the runaway gusher caused by pseudo benny's choice for President...:-)
anyone else notice that consumer confidence collapsed to an 11 month low this morning?
that seems to indicate a lack of faith in the jobs and growth outlook, no?
"anyone else notice that consumer confidence collapsed to an 11 month low this morning?"...
Yes sir morganovich if you are indicating the following from CNBC: Consumer Sentiment Sinks To Lowest Level in 11 Months?
Then again the federal government's action might be part of the root cause of some that sentiment...
Crushing debt and the federal government's desire to know about one's private lives like one's BMI and whether one is a smoker are on the forefront of what is important to people whether people know it or not...
Important stuff!
Socialists?
juandos said: - "the federal government's desire to know about one's private lives like one's BMI and whether one is a smoker are on the forefront of what is important to people whether people know it or not..."
This is really scary stuff. Besides being intrusive, I can't help but believe some of this will be used later to approve or deny treatment under Obamacare. Doesn't the 4th amendment come into play here? Oh, never mind. I forgot. We don't use that stuff anymore.
"anyone else notice that consumer confidence collapsed to an 11 month low this morning?"...
What is also as interesting as the drop is that at the current level (66.5) only corresponds to being in or entering a recession.
"This is really scary stuff. Besides being intrusive, I can't help but believe some of this will be used later to approve or deny treatment under Obamacare"...
Well Ron H its either denial of care (with the IRS still collecting preiums from you) or the Berwick re-education camps...
The scariest jobs graph you've seen yet
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-klein/2010/07/the_scariest_jobs_graph_youve.html
"New Jobless Claims Fall to Lowest Level Since 2008"
Hmmm, does that include the THREE MILLION IMAGINARY JOBS this administration is crowing about?
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