Tuesday, January 13, 2009

Exodus From Forced-Unionism States Continues

The eight states enjoying the greatest net in-migration of people from other states between 2000-2008 all have Right to Work laws. But of the eight states suffering the worst out-migration, only Katrina-hit Louisiana has such a law (see chart below).

"Study after study has shown that forced unionism eliminates job opportunities and cuts employees' real incomes. Apparently, ordinary citizens know these studies are right. A new U.S. Census Bureau report shows that the massive 1990s exodus of employees and their families from forced-unionism states is accelerating during the current decade.

According to the report, between April 1, 2000 and July 1, 2008, a net total of 4.7 million Americans moved from forced-unionism states to Right to Work states. That's on top of a net population transfer of nearly five million Americans to Right to Work states during the 1990s."

Source:
National Right to Work Newsletter – January 2009. Thanks to editor Stan Green for providing it.

14 Comments:

At 1/13/2009 1:46 PM, Anonymous Mika said...

You don't need know much about stats to know that displaying an apparent correlation between two variables does not establish cause and effect, or even a relationship for that matter. Volumes have been written about this, including the most humorous examples.

What about Louisiana? Why doesn't the report display all 50 states, or were these states cherry-picked to support the thesis?

Did those who migrated actually find jobs with a livable wage?

 
At 1/13/2009 1:56 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Here is the link to an AP story about people leaving California:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090112/ap_on_re_us/fleeing_california_3

"Go East, young man? Californians look for the exit"

"...years of rising taxes, dead-end schools, unchecked illegal immigration and clogged traffic have robbed the Golden State of its allure."

"With state government facing a $41.6 billion budget hole over 18 months, residents are bracing for higher taxes, cuts in education and postponed tax rebates. A multibillion-dollar plan to remake downtown Los Angeles has stalled, and office vacancy rates there and in San Diego and San Jose surpass the 10.2 percent national average."

"Median housing prices have nose-dived one-third from a 2006 peak, but many homes are still out of reach for middle-class families. Some small towns are on the brink of bankruptcy. Normally recession-proof Hollywood has been hit by layoffs."

California is a one party state. The Democrats, with the collaboration of a sycophantic media, have run this state into the ground. Now, even the rats are fleeing the ship.

The problem with this migration is that these people for the most part have learned nothing from their experience in California. They move to Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico, etc., and they take their liberal politics with them voting to empower the same types of people that ruined California and forced their migration. The people who live in these states see this happening and refer to the influx of leftist Golden Staters as "Californication". So it's not so much a migration as it is a metastasis.

 
At 1/13/2009 2:24 PM, Blogger 1 said...

"What about Louisiana? Why doesn't the report display all 50 states, or were these states cherry-picked to support the thesis?"...

Did you contact the National Right to Work people and ask them mika?

"Did those who migrated actually find jobs with a livable wage?"...

What's this alledged, 'livable wage' mika?

The 'neo-pinko's choice for Secrtary of Labor claims she isn't qualified to answer questions about right to work...

 
At 1/13/2009 2:40 PM, Anonymous Stan Greer, National Right to Work Committee said...

Mika, as the excerpt quoted by Dr. Perry shows, in the 50 states overall, 4.7 million net people migrated from non-Right to Work states to Right to Work states in the 2000-2008 period. This continues and intensifies the trend in the seventies, eighties and nineties.

The story as a whole, linked to by Dr. Perry, shows that real disposable incomes per capita are higher in Right to Work states.

Of course, Right to Work laws aren't the only factor in domestic migration, and the NRTWC never said they were. Obviously, having been hit viciously by Katrina in 2005, Louisiana is a special case.

 
At 1/13/2009 3:10 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I came across this for your next "Markets in Everything" post:

"A California man is under arrest for allegedly trying to sell his 14-year-old daughter into marriage for 100 cases of beer and other items. Police say 36-year-old Marcelino De Jesus Martinez arranged for his daughter to marry an 18-year-old man for several cases of Corona beer, 50 cases of Negra Modelo, six bottles of wine, fifty cases of soft drinks and 50 cases of Gatorade."

"The daughter moved in with the man, but the father never received payment so he called police. Police brought the daughter home along with a surprise for the father; an arrest warrant. De Jesus Martinez and the 18-year-old are both in jail charged with felonies. The father is charged with receiving money for causing person to cohabitate and the other man is charged with statutory rape."

"Police say arranged marriages are common in many cultures and are not against the law as long as both people are over the legal age."

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28639063/

Ahhh. The joys of multiculturalism.

 
At 1/13/2009 3:21 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Maybe it also has to do with weather. Looks like migration out of colder states and into warmer states.

Mark

 
At 1/13/2009 3:44 PM, Anonymous Stan Greer, National Right to Work Committee said...

Mike, well up to a point, except that there is a huge out-migration out of forced-unionism California, which is, as you know, sunny and temperate.

Also, although it's not in the top eight, Right to Work Idaho had a substantial net in-migration of over 113,000 despite its cold, snowy climate.

Right to Work Arizona's net in-migration was 28 times greater than that of neighboring forced-unionism New Mexico, even though both have very warm weather.

Weather is a factor, obviously, but it doesn't seem to be as big a factor as Right to Work status.

 
At 1/13/2009 4:59 PM, Blogger VangelV said...

There is little doubt that low taxes and protection of the right to work will lead to more people moving into a state. While the people on the left tend to talk a nice game I doubt that they can point to many middle class individuals who are happy paying high taxes and are satisfied with the quality and cost of government 'services.'

The, 'can they get a living wage,' question is easy to answer. If they couldn't people would not move to right to work states.

 
At 1/13/2009 6:49 PM, Anonymous Dr. T said...

We need an age breakdown on those who moved. Many of the people moving from nothern states to southern states could be retirees seeking warmer climes.

Louisiana is an outlier: It lost population due to hurricane Katrina.

 
At 1/13/2009 8:31 PM, Blogger stilettoheels said...

Net domestic migration only paints part of the picture. One needs to include international migration into the mix. For instance, California and New York combined account for about 40% of net domestic outmigration which is mostly offset by net international inmigration.

Over 8 million foreigners inmigrated to the US and they all didn't make a beeline for the right to work states.

Data here. Perhaps Stan Greer of the NRTW can include all data in his next newsletter. It would also be appropriate to include the percentage/1000 population for easier analysis. If so, Stan would not have misconstrued the data with this statement: Right to Work Arizona's net in-migration was 28 times greater than that of neighboring forced-unionism New Mexico. Population adjusted , it is incorrect.

 
At 1/14/2009 9:33 AM, Anonymous Stan Greer, National Right to Work Committee said...

OK, Stiletto Hills, you have a point about population adjustment, although movements to and from big states are more significant from the perspective of the national economy than those in and out of small states. And as I have pointed out, the overall net migration to Right to Work states over the 2000-2008 period was 4.7 million. That reflects a significant net overall percentage loss as well as an absolute loss for the forced-unionism states.

Furthermore, international migration to the U.S. affects Right to Work states and non-Right to Work states about equally. California and New York's high immigration from abroad is no explanation for their huge net domestic outmigration, since Right to Work Texas, Florida and Arizona have substantial net domestic and international in-migration. Furthermore, although I personally support liberal immigration laws, it is very doubtful that the human capital supplied by immigration from abroad adequately substitutes for the loss of domestic human capital experienced by states like California.

Finally, even if you adjust for Arizona's larger population as of 2000, its net domestic in-migration from 2000 to 2008 was still 10 times that of neighboring forced-unionism New Mexico.

In response to another comment, private-sector job growth in Right to Work states from 2002 to 2007 was 9.6%, 2.8 times as great as private-sector job growth in forced-unionism states. Obviously, most of the domestic-population transfer consists of working-age people and their children, not retirees.

 
At 1/14/2009 11:23 AM, Blogger randian said...

They move to Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico, etc., and they take their liberal politics with them voting to empower the same types of people that ruined California and forced their migration.

Immigrants from PA, NY, and MA are doing that to us here in FL.

Over 8 million foreigners inmigrated to the US and they all didn't make a beeline for the right to work states.

Non right-to-work states have better welfare programs.

 
At 1/14/2009 11:29 AM, Blogger stilettoheels said...

Finally, even if you adjust for Arizona's larger population as of 2000, its net domestic in-migration from 2000 to 2008 was still 10 times that of neighboring forced-unionism New Mexico

Now that we are on the same statistical page, perhaps you could explain the great domestic inmigration to Arizona with an 6.8% unemployment rate and the less domestic inmigration to New Mexico with a 4.3% unemployment rate.

State unemployment rate data here.

It was called the residential real estate bubble, Stan. Nevada is in the same boat.

Furthermore, international migration to the U.S. affects Right to Work states and non-Right to Work states about equally

A data source, not opinion, would be appropriate, Stan. North Carolina, the fourth largest net domestic inmigration state by population, with an unemployment rate of 7.9%, is not a hot spot landing destination for international inmigrants.

The Census Bureau published a 2006 paper here which analyzes domestic migration from 1990-2004. Does it not conclude that the 50 year secular domestic migration from the northeast and midwest to the south and west has recently slowed. As Mika stated in the first comment to this thread apparent correlation between two variables does not establish cause and effect which reinforces the view that the right to work states are accidental geographic destinations.

In your first post you stated: The story as a whole, linked to by Dr. Perry, shows that real disposable incomes per capita are higher in Right to Work states

Are you certain about the assertion? A cursory view of this data set casts doubt on the assertion.

job growth in Right to Work states from 2002 to 2007 was 9.6%, 2.8 times as great as private-sector job growth in forced-unionism states

Could you post a data link, please. Thank you.

 
At 1/14/2009 12:28 PM, Anonymous Stan Greer, National Right to Work Committee said...

Stiletto Heels, you obviously have a chip on your shoulder, and I don't have time to address all your various objections, but I will take a few minutes to address some of them.

The net transfer of millions and millions of people from non-Right to Work states to Right to Work states began decades ago, and simply can't be attributed to the real estate bubble.

This goes for the far larger percentage in-migration to Arizona vs. New Mexico, as well.

Of course, unemployment in states like forced-unionism California (which, of course, also had a big real estate bubble, despite domestic outmigration) is much lower than it would be if millions of job-seekers hadn't left over the past 20 years or more. Similarly, unemployment in states like Arizona is somewhat higher than it otherwise would be because of domestic in-migration. That really isn't an advertisement for domestic out-migration. And it doesn't change the fact that job growth is far faster in Right to Work states.

The job growth data I cite are available in this study I prepared:

http://www.nilrr.org/node/77

If you don't believe the study because I prepared it, you can check the numbers yourself in the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics links provided at the bottom of the tables in the study.

As for net international migration to the 50 states, you can get that for yourself here:

http://www.census.gov/popest/states/NST-comp-chg.html

If you don't know which states are Right to Work states and which are non-Right to Work states, check the map linked to on the home page of the National Right to Work Legal Defense Foundation:

www.nrtw.org

 

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