United Van Lines Releases Annual Migration Study
The map above shows U.S. migration patterns in 2009, according to United Van Lines annual study of shipment patterns.
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Professor Mark J. Perry's Blog for Economics and Finance
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
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- Name: Mark J. Perry
- Location: Washington, D.C., United States
Dr. Mark J. Perry is a professor of economics and finance in the School of Management at the Flint campus of the University of Michigan. Perry holds two graduate degrees in economics (M.A. and Ph.D.) from George Mason University near Washington, D.C. In addition, he holds an MBA degree in finance from the Curtis L. Carlson School of Management at the University of Minnesota. In addition to a faculty appointment at the University of Michigan-Flint, Perry is also a visiting scholar at The American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C.
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15 Comments:
A better and more accurate picture would be census data. Other than Michigan, someof the movement would be due to demographics--persons retiring and moving to warmer climates. In some cases it could be reverse migration: people moving up north from the south, and returning to the south and family members who can support them during hard times.
If you use Census data, you can control for age and employment status.
I remember hearing in history class that people from different parts of the Roman Empire, as it declined, migrated to Rome for the same reason that is where the money was. I hope we are not heading down that path - Roman Empire Redux.
Nothing new.
I moved to the DC area for that reason. That was 14 years ago.
In that time I've heard numerous complaints from the natives about how crowded it's getting. And lots of examples of traffic congestions.
What galls me the most is that soeone like Rep. Jim Moran uses this as to legitimize spending even more money in the DC area.
Hmmm...interesting, although probably not an entirely accurate picture.
People are leaving New York and New Jersey in droves because of the ridiculously high taxes.
I suspect that the only reason that New York State is "balanced" is because a lot of people still move to NYC because it's still a lot of fun here despite all of the taxes, regulations and other b.s. forced upon us by the progressives.
I am, however, pretty surprised that Pennsylvania is "high outbound."
PA is pretty moderate compared to the other states, with low taxes all around, and a flat tax of 3.07%. And PA is only about an hour or so (without traffic) from NYC. Pretty much all of my family has left NYC and NJ to live in PA, because it's not really expensive.
A lot of folks live in East and Northeast PA and commute to high-paying jobs closeby in NJ and NYC. And the cost of living is quite low in PA...with reasonable property taxes.
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I am not surprised by these results except for Oregon's. Why would people be moving to Oregon?
I think the weather has something to do with it. There are 2 arcs on the map. Generally north and east leaving and generally incoming farther south and west.
When jobs are available and taxes bearable, people put up with the weather. When the scale tips to "time to move", they generally don't choose higher taxes and worse weather.
California, obviously a high tax state with over 12% official unemployment, has seen the 2009 net domestic outmigration come to a halt. But all indications are that it's because our collapsed RE home market has put many homes "under water." Folks are waiting for a housing rebound so they can sell, get some equity out, and then move.
Until the RE collapse, our outmigration was growing to past a quarter million NET annual net domestic migration (migration between states).
From April, 2000 through June, 2008 (8 years, 2 months) California has lost a NET 1.4 million people. The departures slowed in 2008 only because people couldn’t sell their homes.
www.mdp.state.md.us/msdc/Pop_estimate/Estimate_08/table5.pdf
These are not welfare kings and queens departing. They are the young, the educated, the productive, the ambitious, the wealthy (such as Tiger Woods and the Williams sisters), and retirees seeking to make their pensions provide more bang for the buck.
The irony is that a disproportionate number of these seniors are retired state and local government employees fleeing the state that provides them with their opulent pensions – in order to avoid the high taxes that these same employees pushed so hard through their unions.
Of complementary interest would be a similar chart showing one-way rentals of trucks-vans-trailers from U-Haul.
It's nowhere close to accurate. This is what you get following faux indexes.
California is losing people and so are Oregon and Idaho. Yet California shows "balanced" and OR and ID show net inbound.
It never occurs to UVL or MJP that people might use different modes/brands of transport out than in. The "analysis" never goes any deeper than reporting the data. There's no data validation or alternative explanations explored.
S Kyle said...
It's nowhere close to accurate. This is what you get following faux indexes.
Well share that data proving that California, Oregon, and Idaho lost people in 2009. "is losing" implies now or some period around now. This study was for the entire year so it could easily have gone one way part of the year then reversed.
Also note that "balanced" does not mean absolutely no net increase or decrease. Just a rough balance. California's shipments do show a net outflow.
To S Kyle:
The "analysis" never goes any deeper than reporting the data. There's no data validation or alternative explanations explored.
Dude, lighten up.
I don't think that MJP was presenting this bit of data as conclusive proof of anything. It is, however, an interesting indicator -- much as the "Big Mac Index" summarizes a lot of economic data into an easily understandable proxy for purchasing power parity.
It's quite true that the Forex markets pay no attention to it. The rest of us, however, do gain a bit of insight into relative prices around the world.
One other thing you have to throw into the mix is that not everybody moves by United Van Lines or any other moving company. I suspect the less affuent a person is, the less likely they are to move via a moving company and the more likely they are to move via U-Haul or Ryder truck.
Minnesota, despite Gov. Pawlenty's blocking tax increases, still is in the top 10 for individual taxes and in the top 4 for business taxes.
I'm surprised that New York isn't in the yellow.
Let's just say in my job I follow labor market and population numbers a tad bit more rigorously than United Van Lines. Some of us do this kind of work for a living. Others are amateurs viewing the world through an internet connection.
To the first anonymous, there is a huge lag in Census Bureau data. They might not publish 2009 population and migration data for another year.
smd's instincts are correct. Oregon is shedding population like Chris Dodd sheds dandruff. The state lost 80,000 people in one quarter from it's labor force. Most did not move but many did.
Richard is correct about CA. Many people are anchored in their homes. Until 2009 international inmigration offset domestic outmigration. Now, even illegal immigrants are leaving.
Population growth in NV is mildly negative.
Craig, if all it is is an "interesting indicator" it has no more explanatory power than the constellation in which Venus is in transit. Mentioning it is a waste of air. There are many factors which affect the price of a Big Mac, few of which are controlled in the BMI.
These indexes are to economics what a Britney Spears song is to music - crap which gets attention through it's shallow and novel sophistry.
I am shocked to see the data. The level of immigration taking place would at last steal away the job of the locals. Something urgently should be done to prevent the disaster.
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