Friday, May 04, 2012

Friday Morning Links

1.  Oregon veneer plant has a significant pickup in hiring. There's a new optimism in the Northwest veneer and plywood industry that hasn't been there for 3 years.

2. Las Vegas-area home sales rose to the highest level for the month of March in 6 years. 

3. Former Walmart Associate: I Worked at Walmart for Two Years and I Actually Really Liked It.

4.  Private Buses Will Now Need a Permit To Drive Into New York City.

5. Hyundai to hire 877 workers and add a third shift at its Montgomery, Alabama plant for Sonata and Elantra production.

6. Some Housing Markets Are Rebounding, Phoenix Home Prices in March Were Up 20% Over Last Year, 6% vs. February.

41 Comments:

At 5/04/2012 8:53 AM, Blogger bart said...

"Las Vegas Region March Home Sales"

Prices still down from a year ago levels.

 
At 5/04/2012 8:59 AM, Blogger Mark J. Perry said...

There's always a dark economic cloud in every economic silver lining, and I can always count on somebody to find it within the first hour of a post.

 
At 5/04/2012 9:04 AM, Blogger Jon Murphy said...

There's always a dark economic cloud in every economic silver lining,

There's a silver lining to this dark cloud, too. Yes, prices are down from last year, but they are down by a smaller percentage, indicating momentum is building in prices.

So, prices are starting to feel pressure to rise.

 
At 5/04/2012 9:11 AM, Blogger Methinks said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

 
At 5/04/2012 9:17 AM, Blogger Jet Beagle said...

For a person seeking a home to buy in Las Vegas, post-bubble low prices would not be a dark cloud.

For a real estate salesperson, the increase in housing demand resulting from post-bubble low prices would not be a dark cloud.

Do you think low housing prices are bad news, bart?

 
At 5/04/2012 9:18 AM, Blogger Methinks said...

I kind of see price declines in a market suffering from oversupply as a silver lining. Especially since the Fed is working so hard to inflate housing prices, preventing the market from functioning.

Price fixes everything - at the right price, inventory moves, people get on with their lives, learn lessons and THAT is all fantastic, IMO.

 
At 5/04/2012 9:29 AM, Blogger VangelV said...

The economic data is not looking very good Mark.

Real U-3 Unemployment Rate: 11.6%

Count up all of the unemployed who have given up working and you are looking at more than 20%. That is not a positive no matter how it is spun. I suspect that the Fed will step in and inject a lot of liquidity to make people like you happy and to kick the can down the road a bit. While that may be enough to prevent a crash before the election comes it will not work for long. Expect a massive correction.

 
At 5/04/2012 9:39 AM, Blogger Jet Beagle said...

methinks: "Price fixes everything - at the right price, inventory moves, people get on with their lives, learn lessons and THAT is all fantastic, IMO."

I mcompletely agree.

 
At 5/04/2012 9:49 AM, Blogger Jet Beagle said...

I wonder why Hyundai put that plant in Alabama instead of a UAW state such as Michigan or Ohio?

 
At 5/04/2012 10:04 AM, Blogger Jon Murphy said...

I wonder why Hyundai put that plant in Alabama instead of a UAW state such as Michigan or Ohio?

Don't you know? Hyundai, being the evil, faceless, Korean company that it is only cares about lining their own pockets and not the well being of American workers. So, rather than pay a livable wage to their employees, they exploit the Alabama workers who are too backward to know what good unions are for them. Then, those crafty Koreans sell the vehicles made my the sweat of the Southerners to foolish Americans who pay too much. And then the Koreans all laugh.

Yes, I am being sarcastic.

 
At 5/04/2012 2:12 PM, Blogger AIG said...

Real U-3 Unemployment Rate: 11.6%

Why yes of course. I routinely get my "real" economic data from "Tyler Durden". I especially like any well-written piece of economic analyses which begins with the word "propaganda", because as everyone knows, the first step to any quantitative analyses is to assume that the other guy is evil and is out to get you.

Tyler Durden also does my taxes.

 
At 5/04/2012 2:17 PM, Blogger VangelV said...

Why yes of course. I routinely get my "real" economic data from "Tyler Durden". I especially like any well-written piece of economic analyses which begins with the word "propaganda", because as everyone knows, the first step to any quantitative analyses is to assume that the other guy is evil and is out to get you.

Actually, you like your data to come from the BLS and to hear what you want to hear. But even the BLS has U-6 at more than 15%. And if it counted those people that were defined out of existence during the Clinton Administration the number goes over 20%. I wonder how long it will be before even the gullible figure out that there was never a real recovery to begin with.

 
At 5/04/2012 2:21 PM, Blogger AIG said...

But even the BLS has U-6 at more than 15%.

Yes but in case you didn't notice, there's a difference between U-3 and U-6. It's a whole 3 numbers difference :P

I wonder how long it will be before even the gullible figure out that there was never a real recovery to begin with.

I don't know anyone who hasn't said this is an anemic recovery at best. So congratulations for saying what everyone else has also been saying. How...freedom-hating of you.

 
At 5/04/2012 2:25 PM, Blogger Jon Murphy said...

But even the BLS has U-6 at more than 15%.

The BLS U-6 unemployment rate for April 2012 is 14.1% NSA and 14.5% SA.

 
At 5/04/2012 2:28 PM, Blogger Jon Murphy said...

Fun fact of the day:

The BLS U-6 Unemployment rate has dropped 2.1 percentage points since the beginning of the year.

 
At 5/04/2012 2:30 PM, Blogger VangelV said...

I don't know anyone who hasn't said this is an anemic recovery at best.

Really? Why don't you read most of the comments that are cheering Mark on every time he cherry picks some data point about how some indicator or another is signalling a recovery?

So congratulations for saying what everyone else has also been saying. How...freedom-hating of you.

Your reading comprehension problem is something you need to work on.

 
At 5/04/2012 2:31 PM, Blogger VangelV said...

The BLS U-6 unemployment rate for April 2012 is 14.1% NSA and 14.5% SA.

You do know that the BLS uses a model to create jobs that it does not measure but assumes are there? Start counting real jobs and real unemployment and you see a totally different picture.

 
At 5/04/2012 2:34 PM, Blogger Jon Murphy said...

Vangel,

I was just pointing out the U-6. You said the BLS U-6 was over 15%. I am just pointing out it is not. That's all.

 
At 5/04/2012 2:38 PM, Blogger AIG said...

I am just pointing out it is not. That's all.

Your hate for freedom is blindingly obvious, Jon.

You do know that the BLS uses a model to create jobs that it does not measure but assumes are there?

It's a model, that gets adjusted. Now, if YOU think anyone else thinks that it isn't so, then you're only arguing with yourself. But then again, wasn't that what Tyler Durden was, in fact, doing?

 
At 5/04/2012 2:49 PM, Blogger Unknown said...

The beginning of the end for the natural gas boom. I always knew Obama would squash it sooner or later. It has finally become sooner.

http://usnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/05/04/11538271-us-wants-fracking-on-federal-lands-to-disclose-chemicals?lite

 
At 5/04/2012 2:56 PM, Blogger Jon Murphy said...

Your hate for freedom is blindingly obvious, Jon.


Haha yep that's me.

What you don't actually know is Dr. Perry, myself, and a few others are actually part of a group called the Ilumminutti. We secretly control all the US' events and are trying to take over the world. We would have been successful, but Vangel keep uncovering our secret plans and lets the economic data we keep under wraps out.

 
At 5/04/2012 3:12 PM, Blogger VangelV said...

Vangel,

I was just pointing out the U-6. You said the BLS U-6 was over 15%. I am just pointing out it is not. That's all.


You are right. With so many people giving up looking for jobs the reported unemployment rate keeps dropping. But the same problem remains. If you count those people you are looking at over 20%. And as I pointed out above, some of the jobs come from the BLS models. They are not real and exist only inside the computers.

 
At 5/04/2012 3:22 PM, Blogger VangelV said...

The proposal, which next goes through a public comment period, would require that drillers:

Disclose the "complete chemical makeup of all materials used;"

Ensure the stability of underground casing in wells;

Ensure that waste water from fracking does not leak into the environment.


The requirements are not a big del if they are applied reasonably. For example, the second and third requirement should be in compliance if the drillers use perform the work per industry standards as approved by their engineers. The first requirement should be easy to comply with because that is simply a filing issue.

The problem for shale is not the idiots in the government but the negative returns on the energy invested. I wonder what happens when the accounting tricks are revealed and the gullible figure out that they have been had.

 
At 5/04/2012 3:33 PM, Blogger Methinks said...

I always knew Obama would squash it sooner or later. It has finally become sooner.

If I wanted America to fail......

 
At 5/04/2012 4:12 PM, Blogger Hell_Is_Like_Newark said...

gas and oil drillers already have to disclose what chemicals are used. They just don't have to disclose the exact formulations.

https://www.hydraulicfracturingdisclosure.org/fracfocusfind/Map.aspx

click on map search
enter a state (PA is a good example)
Zoom into a well, click it and you can load up the chemical mix, well depth, etc. via a PDF file.

 
At 5/04/2012 5:12 PM, Blogger Rufus II said...

The new regs are for "Federal, and Indian" lands where there are no State Regs in force.

 
At 5/04/2012 5:51 PM, Blogger AIG said...

I don't see how these regulations are any different from existing regulations.

 
At 5/04/2012 6:24 PM, Blogger Henry H said...

FYI, The last link in the post is dead.

 
At 5/04/2012 7:00 PM, Blogger VangelV said...

The new regs are for "Federal, and Indian" lands where there are no State Regs in force.

As I wrote, the regulations are not an issue if they are applied with a bit of common sense. One requires some paperwork while the other two require that the drillers work to engineering approved industry standards.

The big issue can be the way that regulators try to gauge compliance. It is easy to hire some moron who makes it difficult on a company if s/he wishes to even if the company is doing a great job.

 
At 5/04/2012 7:16 PM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

Many people talked about the "jobless recovery" in the early 2000s.

However, they didn't realize the relatively small job gains after the 2001 recession (and relatively small job losses in the recession) were on top of huge job gains in the second half of the 1990s.

Normally, strong expansions follow severe recessions. However, the Obama recovery is weak, because of ineffective and counterproductive policies by the Administration and Congress.

 
At 5/04/2012 8:43 PM, Blogger Pulverized Concepts said...

OK, some people still have jobs, some are unemployed and getting benefits and others have given up looking for work. Is that it? No, a substantial number are working for cash, trading stuff they get off craigslist or at garage sales, doing building and yard maintenance, small construction, who knows what all? The more obnoxious the government makes it for individuals to function, the more they'll operate outside its parameters, just like they're doing in Greece, Spain, and other over-regulated states.

If you're worried about fracking, this is the kind of thing the enviros can do: http://nailheadtom.blogspot.com/2012/02/california-isnt-all-that-enthusiastic.html

 
At 5/04/2012 8:59 PM, Blogger juandos said...

The Crashing US Housing Metro Areas – Atlanta home values crash by 17 percent in last year and Las Vegas continues to move lower...

 
At 5/04/2012 9:11 PM, Blogger juandos said...

Joe Hardesty's situation seems like yet another in a long like of local bureaucratic parasites that are fishing around for a rationale to keep on the taxpayer financed gravy train...

 
At 5/05/2012 3:17 PM, Blogger Ron H. said...

Jon M: "There's a silver lining to this dark cloud, too. Yes, prices are down from last year, but they are down by a smaller percentage, indicating momentum is building in prices."

Does that mean the decrease in housing prices is slowing?

 
At 5/05/2012 3:19 PM, Blogger Ron H. said...

Methinks: "Price fixes everything - at the right price, inventory moves, people get on with their lives, learn lessons and THAT is all fantastic, IMO."

What did you mean by "learn lessons"?

 
At 5/05/2012 3:21 PM, Blogger Ron H. said...

Jon M: "And then the Koreans all laugh."

That's the worst part.

 
At 5/05/2012 3:30 PM, Blogger Ron H. said...

Peak: "However, the Obama recovery is weak, because of ineffective and counterproductive policies by the Administration and Congress."

Increasing the federal minimum wage is undoubtedly one of them.

 
At 5/05/2012 4:24 PM, Blogger Jon Murphy said...

Does that mean the decrease in housing prices is slowing?

Or the annual trend (12 month moving average) as flattened or beginning to rise.

In this case, it's option three. The annual trend has begun to rise above previous months, but it does remain below the year-ago level.

 
At 5/05/2012 10:37 PM, Blogger Abir Mandal said...

Ron: Learn lessons-- as in increase minimum wage. See unemployment increasing. Never doing so again. Not something we can expect from Nobama.

 
At 5/06/2012 3:54 AM, Blogger Methinks said...

What did you mean by "learn lessons"?


That risky is risky and prices can also go down, which should teach anyone that levering to infinity in order to buy a single, illiquid asset with high transactions costs is probably not the brilliant idea it once seemed.

For example.

 
At 5/06/2012 9:53 AM, Blogger juandos said...

" the first step to any quantitative analyses is to assume that the other guy is evil and is out to get you"...

Well gee aig for you the first step would be to tether yourself to reality...

From that initial step other things can flow...

BTW what is your definition of a bureaucracy consistenly gets the number of people actually unemployed wrong?

Evil or useless?

Either way that agency is using some of your extorted tax dollars to finance what they pass off as reality...

 

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