Friday, May 04, 2012

Manufacturing Job Gains Continue to Lead

Here are some highlights from today's BLS employment release:

1. Manufacturing employment increased by 16,000 in April, following gains of 37,000 in March, 31,000 in February and 52,000 in January, for a year-to-date factory job gain of 136,000.

2. More than 17% of U.S. job growth this year has been in manufacturing, even though that sector represents less than 9% of total payrolls. 

3. The jobless rate for the manufacturing sector fell from 7.6% in March to 6.9% in April (not seasonally adjusted - NSA, see Table A-14 in today's report), which was the lowest rate since October 2008, and marked the 11th straight month that the manufacturing jobless rate was below the national average (7.7% in April, NSA).

MP: The chart above displays the percentage employment gains since January 2010 for: a) manufacturing and b) total payroll employment, showing the 4.27% increase in factory jobs compared to the 2.87% increase in overall payrolls.  American manufacturing has made a strong comeback over the last several years, with an increase in factory employment of 489,000 jobs since 2010, and has brought the once-dismissed industrial sector to the forefront of the economic expansion.

26 Comments:

At 5/04/2012 8:13 AM, Blogger juandos said...

Courtesy of Zero Hedge: People Not In Labor Force Soar By 522,000, Labor Force Participation Rate Lowest Since 1981

In April the number of people not in the labor force rose by a whopping 522,000 from 87,897,000 to 88,419,000. This is the highest on record. The flip side, and the reason why the unemployment dropped to 8.1% is that the labor force participation rate just dipped to a new 30 year low of 64.3%....

 
At 5/04/2012 8:48 AM, Blogger Jon Murphy said...

Not that I want to turn attention away from manufacturing (keep posting good numbers!), but I would like to make a comment about the job hiring number this month:

Both total employment (private and public) and private sector employment percentage increase was about median this month. So, when you are hearing the numbers on jobs, keep in mind that this is just about normal for this time of the year.

Back to manufacturing:

The current growth trend in manufacturing employment (Sept 2010 to present) is rising at the fastest pace in 20 years.

 
At 5/04/2012 8:59 AM, Blogger bart said...

My U7 unemployment rate reconstruction (which includes *all* discouraged workers, not just a year or two worth) was slightly up from last months at 21.6% (from 21.4%).


Using an constant participation rate for 2000 to date, U3 is 10.9%, U6 is 17.2%

 
At 5/04/2012 9:13 AM, Blogger Methinks said...

I wonder what would happen to the "discouraged workers" and labour participation rates if we whacked unemployment "benefits".

 
At 5/04/2012 9:20 AM, Blogger morganovich said...

i have serious doubts there is any way to way to actually calculate a specific labor force for just manufacturing.

how would you even do that? sounds like a very slanted figure to me.

 
At 5/04/2012 9:22 AM, Blogger Jet Beagle said...

" ... if we whacked unemployment "benefits"."

We'd also need to whack social security disability benefits as well. The number of SSDI beenficiaries has increased by 1.6 million since Dec2007. 8.7 million Americans now receive SSDI benefits.

 
At 5/04/2012 9:27 AM, Blogger Jet Beagle said...

morganovich: "how would you even do that?"

When I owned retail businesses, I was required to submit forms quarterly to a state employment commission. Those forms included data about number of employees and type activity (industrial code) at each location. As I understand it, each state is required to accumulate and submit this data to the Department of Labor.

 
At 5/04/2012 9:28 AM, Blogger Jon Murphy said...

i have serious doubts there is any way to way to actually calculate a specific labor force for just manufacturing.

It's actually simple: you go by the NAICS Code.

For those of you who don't know, NACIS stands for the North American Industry Classification System. It was developed in conjunction with Mexico and Canada as a way of harmonizing economic statistics among the NAFTA participants. Each establishment is assigned a NAICS code depending on what its primary function is. NACIS is broken down into 11 super sectors, 22 sectors, and countless subsectors.

Manufacturing NAICS code is 33. SO, everyone employed at an establishment whose NAICS code is 33 is counted in manufacturing's employment.

For those of you interested in learning more about NAICS, check out the NAICS website.

 
At 5/04/2012 9:33 AM, Blogger Jet Beagle said...

Here's the statement about employment projections from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

"Each month the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program surveys about 141,000 businesses and government agencies, representing approximately 486,000 individual worksites, in order to provide detailed industry data on employment, hours, and earnings of workers on nonfarm payrolls."

One can assume that the BLS combines this monthly survey data with the quarterly data from the state employment commissions to derive employment estimates by industry group (manufacturing, retail, mining, etc)

 
At 5/04/2012 9:40 AM, Blogger Methinks said...

The number of SSDI beenficiaries has increased by 1.6 million since Dec2007.

Why, that almost makes me think if you pay people to be unemployed and disabled, unemployed and disabled they will be :)

Having grown up in the third world where if you can't figure out how to survive, you die, my husband is amazed by the retarded justifications for subsidy in a country with so much opportunity.

 
At 5/04/2012 9:47 AM, Blogger Jet Beagle said...

methinks: "my husband is amazed by the retarded justifications for subsidy in a country with so much opportunity."

40% of the working age population makes no economic contribution. I can understand why they would vote for leaders who redistribute from the productive. What is an absolute mystery is why a single one of the productive would vote for such polticians. How can millions of Americans be so stupid?

 
At 5/04/2012 9:50 AM, Blogger Jon Murphy said...

How can millions of Americans be so stupid?

Simple: Guilt.

 
At 5/04/2012 9:53 AM, Blogger Methinks said...

Stupidity is the natural state of man, JB. Man fights a lifelong struggle with his own stupidity and loses. At least, that's my current thinking.


I find that a lot of people don't understand the subject matter well enough to understand how they're hurt by it. Note the sheer ignorance coupled with absolute certainty when it comes to speculation, HFT, and protectionism to name just three in a virtually infinite list.

Politicians are fantastic at exploiting our natural fears.

 
At 5/04/2012 10:05 AM, Blogger bart said...

How can millions of Americans be so stupid?

Part is guilt but the majority is a poor education plus very good and daily "PR" to keep them within their vested interest based limited education.

 
At 5/04/2012 10:21 AM, Blogger Buddy R Pacifico said...

morganovich asks how would you calculate "a specific labor force just for manufacturing"?

Jon and Jet have got it right. Every year I have to fill out a form sent by the state that classifies workers in my small businesses. This info is then forwarded to the feds.

Here is an explanation for sampling by the BLS on national employment stats.

 
At 5/04/2012 10:24 AM, Blogger Jon Murphy said...

In the spirit of free and fair discussion one thing that should be noted is the NAICS employment data includes everyone working at that establishment as being in that industry. So, for example, at the Boeing plant, everyone from the guys on the line to the managers to the janitors are considered manufacturing employment.

 
At 5/04/2012 10:34 AM, Blogger Benjamin said...

At this rate of employment growth, the USA will never truly recover from the Great Bush jr. Recession.

 
At 5/04/2012 11:22 AM, Blogger rjs said...

where do you get the jobless rate for the manufacturing sector?

seriously, i've spent a lot of time with these reports & havent seen unemployment by sector broken out like that

 
At 5/04/2012 11:26 AM, Blogger Mark J. Perry said...

It's Table A-14 for jobless rates by industry.

 
At 5/04/2012 11:43 AM, Blogger bart said...

Here's an interesting and very unrecognized and reported BEA series.


http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/compensation_salary_wage.png

 
At 5/04/2012 12:01 PM, Blogger juandos said...

"At this rate of employment growth, the USA will never truly recover from the Great Bush jr. Recession"...

Gee! Obama's biatch said that?!?!

LOL!

Meanwhile Obamanomics will have some long reaching effects...

Why the job market might not be normal until 2019 or beyond

By James Pethokoukis
May 4, 2012, 11:38 am

Rick Santelli explains Ostrich Economics

 
At 5/04/2012 1:04 PM, Blogger rjs said...

@MJ Perry: thanx. wonder how they compute that, such that they could have a different unemployment rate for durables & nondurables...

certainly more than a handful of workers switch occupations between jobs, especially in the unskilled trades..

 
At 5/04/2012 1:15 PM, Blogger morganovich said...

jet-

i get that you can tell how many are working, what i doubt is that you can size the labor force (denominator) or even decide who is a "manufacturing unemployed" as opposed to other kinds.

so, if i worked in manufacturing for 5 years, then did a few months in retail, then become unemployed, what am i? retail labor? manufacturing labor?

if i lose my job am i a retail unemployed? manufacturing?

given that lots of people shift industries, these categories seem extremely arbitrary and impossible to actually determine, even with the best of intentions.

 
At 5/05/2012 3:19 AM, Blogger Jet Beagle said...

OK, morganovich. I misunderstood what you were asking.

 
At 5/05/2012 3:55 PM, Blogger Ron H. said...

Jet: "40% of the working age population makes no economic contribution. I can understand why they would vote for leaders who redistribute from the productive. What is an absolute mystery is why a single one of the productive would vote for such polticians. How can millions of Americans be so stupid?"

I think I understand your meaning here, but just to be sure, I must ask: Is the 40% you refer to those not working to produce something, or those who aren't paying any taxes?

I understand that some of those are the same people.

 
At 5/05/2012 4:01 PM, Blogger Ron H. said...

Jon: "In the spirit of free and fair discussion one thing that should be noted is the NAICS employment data includes everyone working at that establishment as being in that industry. So, for example, at the Boeing plant, everyone from the guys on the line to the managers to the janitors are considered manufacturing employment.

And that is one of the reasons manufacturing employment numbers show declines over time, as firms have outsourced some previously in-house services such as janitorial, food service, payroll, and accounting just to name a few.

 

Post a Comment

Links to this post:

Create a Link

<< Home