Monday, May 07, 2012

April Employment Trends Index at 44-Month High

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index increased 0.8 percent in April to 108.04, up from the revised figure of 107.18 in March (see chart above).  The April figure is 7.1 percent higher than a year ago.

“The growth in the Employment Trends Index in recent months is signaling moderate improvements in employment,” said Gad Levanon, Director of Macroeconomic Research at The Conference Board. “We did not expect employment growth in December to February, averaging almost 250,000 a month, to continue. However, the disappointing job gain in April (115,000) is probably below the current trend and should pick up to about 150,000 - 175,000 jobs a month through the summer.”

April’s increase in the ETI was driven by positive contributions from five of the eight components. The improving indicators – beginning with the largest positive contributor – were Percentage of Firms with Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now, Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find “Jobs Hard to Get,” Industrial Production, Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry and Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales. The Employment Trends Index aggregates eight labor-market indicators, each of which has proven accurate in its own area. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly."

MP: The Employment Trends Index in April was at the highest level in 44 months, since August 2008, and the 12-month gain of 7.1% last month was the highest annual increase in more than a year.  This is more evidence that the labor market is gradually healing, and we can expect improvements in employment going forward. 

3 Comments:

At 5/07/2012 3:14 PM, Blogger Jon Murphy said...

Good to see this data coming from the Conference Board.

I have to admit, I am a little perplexed as to Gad Levanon's comment that April's growth was "disappointing". April's job growth was well within the historical median for the month. How can that be disappointing?

 
At 5/07/2012 6:37 PM, Blogger Benjamin said...

Huge amounts of slack in this economy---labor, capital, factor capacity. Trillions of output being lost, millions unemployed.

Moreover, supply chains are global now---no matter how much demand (within reason) we generate in the USA, the supply is there. Goods, services, capital easily cross borders. (Closing the border to hard-working immigrants is a structural impediment).

The Fed is fighting an inflation ghost.

The Chicken Inflation Littles have laid an egg.

 
At 5/07/2012 11:32 PM, Blogger juandos said...

"The Fed is fighting an inflation ghost"...

Such observational prowess...

STEALTH INFLATION

 

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