Last September, Lakshman Achuthan of the Economic Cycle Research Institute
(ECRI) announced publicly that "the jury is in and the verdict is recession
," saying that a new recession was unavoidable based on the declines in the ECRI's weekly leading index. But since that prediction, the ECRI's index has turned up, and is now at 124.3 for the first week of March, more than 4 points above the 120.0 reading at the end of September (see chart above). Since the first of the year, the index has increased in 6 out of the last 9 weeks.
The Bonddad Blog says now that "It's Time to Call BS on ECRI's Recession Prediction," and makes the case using data and charts, you find it here
. So far, Achutan is sticking with his recession prediction