Saturday, March 10, 2012

Jobless Rates With Another Decimal

The BLS reported a jobless rate of 8.3% for both January and February.  Adding an extra decimal, the unemployment rates would actually be 8.26% for January and 8.27% for February, both slightly better than the 8.3% reported.  But then the jobless rate went up slightly in February compared to January. 

6 Comments:

At 3/10/2012 10:58 AM, Blogger Tim Schilling said...

I've heard that decimals are proof that economists have a sense of humor.

 
At 3/10/2012 12:13 PM, Blogger rjs said...

the household survey is based on 50 households; it doesnt have that degree of accuracy...even the the establishment survey, based on preliminary responses from about one third of all US businesses and agencies, has only a 90-percent level of confidence with a confidence interval of plus or minus 100,000...

 
At 3/10/2012 12:13 PM, Blogger rjs said...

50,000 households

 
At 3/10/2012 12:13 PM, Blogger rjs said...

50,000 households

 
At 3/10/2012 2:56 PM, Blogger Tom said...

BLS figures themselves are BS. TrimTabs economics monitors actual payroll figures from Treasury (reported by banks):

http://trimtabs.com/blog/2012/03/07/trimtabs-says-u-s-economy-adds-sub-par-149000-jobs-in-february-economic-data-sending-mixed-messages-which-says-u-s-economic-growth-likely-to-remain-sluggish/

TrimTabs counts 149,000 jobs added in February, not the 227,000 guess by the BLS. The 450,000 folks who returned to the labor force in reality pushed up the unemployment rate by two or three tenths.

TrimTabs has an great collection of nearly-daily videos. They are quite skeptical of the flood money from the Fed and federal government.

 
At 3/10/2012 3:13 PM, Blogger juandos said...

Isn't about time to throw the BS flag on what is being foisted off as jobs reports from the BLS?

To many professionals who's paycheck depend on accurate work are calling it diiferent...

American Enterprise Inst: The real unemployment rate? It sure isn’t 8.3%
By James Pethokoukis
March 9, 2012, 10:51 am
'If the size of the U.S. labor force as a share of the total population was the same as it was when Barack Obama took office—65.7% then vs. 63.9% today—the U-3 unemployment rate would be 10.8%.'...

Gallup: U.S. Unemployment Up in February
by Dennis Jacobe, Chief Economist
March 8, 2012
Underemployment is 19.1%, up from 18.7% in January

TrimTabs: TrimTabs Says U.S. Economy Adds Sub-Par 149,000 Jobs in February – Economic Data Sending Mixed Messages, Which Says U.S. Economic Growth Likely to Remain Sluggish

'TrimTabs’ employment estimates are based on an analysis of daily income tax deposits to the U.S. Treasury from all salaried U.S. employees. They are historically more accurate than initial estimates from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics'...

 

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