Tuesday, February 07, 2012

December Job Openings Highest Since August 2008

Highlights from today's Job Openings and Labor Turnover report from the BLS:

1. There were 3.4 million job openings on the last business day of December, up from 3.1 million in November. The number of job openings has trended upward since the end of the recession in June 2009 (see chart above).

2. Although the number of job openings remained below the 4.4 million openings when the recession began in December 2007, the number of job openings has increased 39 percent since the end of the recession in June 2009.

3. The overall number of seasonally adjusted job openings in December increased over the year by 15.6% and for total private openings by 20.4%.  Openings for government jobs fell by 12.8% over the year.

4. For total job openings and total private openings, the December openings were at their highest levels in 40 months, since August 2008.

5. For manufacturing, December job openings were the highest in more than three and-a-half years going back to May 2008. 

18 Comments:

At 2/07/2012 2:20 PM, Blogger Benjamin said...

I love these charts, and I love Perry's independent take on the economy. I don't always agree with Perry, but usually he avoids being the typical hysterical right-wing minion.

I dislike hysterical left-wing minions as well.

 
At 2/07/2012 2:40 PM, Blogger morganovich said...

i'm not sure what we are intended to take away from this chart.

job openings are at about the trough level from the last recession, but US population has grown by 20 million in that time.

so, job openings per american are 7% below the trough of the last recession.

sure, they are better than they were a year ago, but i don't seem to recall 2002 as a great time to look for a job, and to be 7% below that adjusted for population does not seem like somewhere you want to be.

 
At 2/07/2012 3:16 PM, Blogger juandos said...

"There were 3.4 million job openings on the last business day of December, up from 3.1 million in November. The number of job openings has trended upward since the end of the recession in June 2009"...

O.K. if that's the case then why was then was the Withholding and Employment Taxes (Table IV Federal Tax Deposits) amount less in 2012 vs 2011 by $308 million?

 
At 2/07/2012 3:16 PM, Blogger Benjamin said...

The right-wing is becoming unhinged, when it comes to monetary policy.

See

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- A growing number of states are seeking shiny new currencies made of silver and gold.
Worried that the Federal Reserve and the U.S. dollar are on the brink of collapse, lawmakers from 13 states, including Minnesota, Tennessee, Iowa, South Carolina and Georgia, are seeking approval from their state governments to either issue their own alternative currency or explore it as an option. Just three years ago, only three states had similar proposals in place.

"In the event of hyperinflation, depression, or other economic calamity related to the breakdown of the Federal Reserve System ... the State's governmental finances and private economy will be thrown into chaos," said North Carolina Republican Representative Glen Bradley in a currency bill he introduced last year.

 
At 2/07/2012 3:25 PM, Blogger juandos said...

"The right-wing is becoming unhinged, when it comes to monetary policy">..

You mean those dastardly right wingers that understand the economics you don't understand pseudo benny?

 
At 2/07/2012 4:11 PM, Blogger Jon Murphy said...

i'm not sure what we are intended to take away from this chart.

I think the take-away here is that the job situation is improving. True, it's not a great situation, but it's an improvement nonetheless.

However, I'm not sure the comparison to the previous recession is valid. This recession was magnitudes worse than 2001-2002. Also, this recovery is fraught with structural issues (not the least of which is politics). We can't expect a similar recovery.

You are right that the job outlook looks less than stellar, but let's try to keep it all in perspective. We lost nearly 9M not-seasonally adjusted jobs between 2008-2009. In 2010 and 2011, we've added nearly 2M of them back. We've still a long way to go to be sure, but it's a damn good start.

 
At 2/07/2012 4:17 PM, Blogger morganovich said...

benji-

i am no fan of the gold standard, but it's hardly a shock that people are getting upset about the massive loss of buying power for the dollar.

it lost half its value in a decade before inflation compared to currencies like the swiss franc.

after inflation, you're looking at a 70-80% loss of buying power.

compared to gold, it's been a calamity.

this is the result of the loose money you champion so fervently.

hey, if you want your savings in dollars, knock yourself out, but accusing others of being "unhinged" because they seek to escape the massive destruction of value you seek to impose on them is just foolish.

if you're bank was irresponsible with your savings, you'd seek a new one.

the fed is no different.

 
At 2/07/2012 4:23 PM, Blogger Jon Murphy said...

Here's another way to look at employment numbers:

The private sector lost 8.8M jobs in 2008-2009

The private sector has added 3.3 million jobs in 2010-2011.

 
At 2/07/2012 4:25 PM, Blogger morganovich said...

"We've still a long way to go to be sure, but it's a damn good start."

how do you figure?

in any other recession since ww2, we would have been back to full pre recession employment by now, usually for over a year.

it seems a horrifically feeble start to me.

the only other one that's even in this league in recovery from job loss terms was 2001-2. thus, i think it's a very apt comparison.

note that these are the two recessions where the monetary response has been most vigorous.

that is not a coincidence.

it's just mistaking the brake for the gas.

you cannot print prosperity or jobs.

the greatest monetary intervention in US history has led to the worst recovery from recession since ww2.

bigger hammer folks like benji will squawk that we just needed MORE! but there is zero evidence to back that up.

we need to get the fed and the federal government out of the way and let the economy recover.

bailing out malinvestment, crowding out new investment, debasing the currency, and making the regulatory environment so uncertain and invasive is taking a massive toll.

until it stops, this is going to be rough, rough road.

 
At 2/07/2012 4:34 PM, Blogger Jon Murphy said...

Morganovich, you are absolutely right in every aspect of your analysis except for one part: you say "in every other recession since WWII..."

We've not had a recession of this magnitude since WWII. In my humble opinion, a more apt comparison would be to the Great Depression.

I agree with you wholeheartedly about the government role in the economy. From our time together at Cafe Hayek, I'm sure you know where my economic philosophy stands.

I also agree with you that this recovery is slow. It will be slow. We have many structural changes that is retarding the return of jobs. Until these are overcome (or implemented, in the case of the government), we will have a long road ahead of us. But adding 3 million jobs in 2 years isn't a bad start.

 
At 2/07/2012 4:35 PM, Blogger morganovich said...

"Here's another way to look at employment numbers:

The private sector lost 8.8M jobs in 2008-2009

The private sector has added 3.3 million jobs in 2010-2011."

to put that into a bit of perspective, you need to realize that the recession officially ended after q1 2009.

in every other recession since ww2 (except 2001-2 which was allegedly so "mild") full recovery from employment happened within 18 months.

thus, even a bad scenario would have had full recovery by q3 2010.

yet here we are, 18 months after that, and not even half way recovered.

that's pretty horrendous performance.

the last time we saw somehting like this was FDR and hoover, another period of massive government intervention. talk about the kind of help you can do without...

 
At 2/07/2012 4:42 PM, Blogger morganovich said...

jon-

some of the other recessions were not as different as you may suppose.

peak to trough job losses for this recession were 6% points.

in 1948, it was 5.2%, not that different. full recovery took 9 months.

in 1958, losses were 4.5%, still quite sharp, recovery took 8 months from trough.

i think you may be over estimating how "different" this one was in many ways.

the main difference has been the slowness of recovery, not the depth of the drop.

the recession in 1958 was every bit as deep from a gdp standpoint. (each were about a 4% drop)

1974-5 and 1981 were each about 3%.

the depression was over 10%.

this recession was much more similar to 1958, 74, 81 than 1929 in terms of depth.

i do not think you can ascribe its longevity to its initial depth.

 
At 2/07/2012 6:54 PM, Blogger Benjamin said...

Just you wait! When tennessee starts minting up its own gold coins, and we seize the mighty manufacturing platform in Afghanistan, this nation will roar ahead!

 
At 2/07/2012 7:07 PM, Blogger Craig Howard said...

so, job openings per american are 7% below the trough of the last recession.

I think that is the proper method to analyze this datum.

 
At 2/08/2012 11:27 AM, Blogger bart said...

O.K. if that's the case then why was then was the Withholding and Employment Taxes (Table IV Federal Tax Deposits) amount less in 2012 vs 2011 by $308 million?

Lower paying, part time and temp jobs is much of the reason.

 
At 2/08/2012 6:25 PM, Blogger juandos said...

"Lower paying, part time and temp jobs is much of the reason"...

Yeah bart I'm also sure of that but I wonder if its also jobs that for want of a better word have, 'vanished'?

 
At 2/11/2012 10:47 PM, Blogger VangelV said...

Like Benji I also love these charts. It is a shame most people don't exactly see what is shown on them. As morganovich points out, "ob openings per american are 7% below the trough of the last recession." How is this good news again?

 
At 2/11/2012 10:49 PM, Blogger VangelV said...

The private sector lost 8.8M jobs in 2008-2009

The private sector has added 3.3 million jobs in 2010-2011.


But that took trillions in bailouts, deficit spending, and unfunded liabilities. What happens to the job picture when those have to be paid back or written off?

 

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