-- "U.S. unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, is 8.3% in mid-January -- a slight improvement from 8.5% in December, and down from 9.9% in January a year ago. Gallup's mid-month unemployment reading, based on telephone interviews of a random sample of 18,500 adults in the 30 days ending Jan. 15, serves as a preliminary estimate of the U.S. government report, and suggests the BLS will likely report on the first Friday of February that its seasonally adjusted unemployment rate declined once again in January.
The U.S. government's January unemployment rate that it will report in early February will be based on mid-month conditions. Therefore, Gallup's mid-month unemployment reading, based on data collected through the 15th of the month, normally provides a good estimate of the government's unadjusted unemployment rate for the month. Because of employer layoffs after the holidays, unadjusted unemployment rates normally increase at this time of year, and the government seasonally adjusts for these layoffs. So it seems likely that the government will report another decline in its seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate for January.
Regardless of what the government reports, Gallup's unemployment and underemployment measures show modest improvement so far in January, and that is particularly positive news for job conditions at this time of year because the early part of the year is usually slow for hiring. This is good news for the overall U.S. economy. It is also a plus for the president's re-election efforts."