Professor Mark J. Perry's Blog for Economics and Finance
Posted 8:38 AM Post Link
Links to this post
After all, English is a marketplace too.
Also, "moderation" can be used to extreme levels.
Moreover, Scott Grannis shows the U.S. is in a 21st century-style depression:The 13% GDP gap January 27, 2012This chart nicely illustrates just how weak the current recovery has been—it's actually unprecedented. According to my calculations, there is a 13% "gap" between the current size of the economy and where it would be if it were following its long-term trend growth rate.Since 2008, federal payments to individuals as a % of GDP have increased by at least one-third, to their highest level ever. Income redistribution on a massive scale like this can not only fail to create growth, it can stymie growth by creating perverse incentives (e.g., rewarding the lack of work and punishing success).One thing about today's fourth quarter GDP report that caught my eye was the relatively weak growth (3.2%) in nominal GDP, which was entirely due to sharply lower inflation.http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/
Why the depression will continue in 2012:1. The top 1% (or really the top 20%), who create most of the jobs, are under attack (particularly, this election year).2. The E.U. is in recession.3. China's long-boom is usustainable (a massive creative-destruction process is overdue).4. Peak oil (or high oil prices) will constrain growth.
Peak, I agree with your points 1 & 3, but your conclusion and points 2 & 4, I'd like to argue with.Point 2: The EU is not in a recession. EU Industrial Production grew 4% over the course of 2011. I know it's hard to believe considering all the bad news coming out of Europe, but it's true. Certain countries in the EU may be facing or in recession, but as a whole, it is fairly healthy.Point 4: I agree high oil prices will slow growth, but I don't know if it will "constrain" simply because of the falling natural gas prices. It won't affect gasoline, but possibly energy prices, as well as many natural gas products.As for your conclusion, I will say wholeheartedly that the US is not in a recession/depression, growth will continue in 2012 and possibly through most of 2013. I mean, there are just no signs from leading indicators that we are heading towards anything but growth in the near-medium term.
Jon, although the U.S. economy isn't "receding," the output gap shows depression.And, if the E.U. isn't in recession, it will be, and it may worsen into a vicious cycle.
The "train wreck" is still unfolding. It would've been avoided if the U.S. achieved a V-shaped recovery in 2009-10.The last time the U.S. failed, it took WWII, or the destruction of major economies, for the U.S. to prosper in the '50s and '60s.
"Point 2: The EU is not in a recession. EU Industrial Production grew 4% over the course of 2011. I know it's hard to believe considering all the bad news coming out of Europe, but it's true. Certain countries in the EU may be facing or in recession, but as a whole, it is fairly healthy"...Well jon murphy if the contents of the articles posted over at Zer0 Hedge are at all factual it would it seem that a recession is just around the corner for the EU due to inability of the debtor nations to reach some sort of agreement with the nations not doing so poorly...
Just because we'll reach 100% usage of the word "sustainable" doesn't mean we've reached an end point! By that time humans will have begun to achieve polyphony speaking whereby we cand speak multiple sentices at at time. Don't worry folks we'll never see peak "sustainable"Humans are just too clever. /sarc.
Is the United States government doing its part in sustaining sustainable?Executive Orders EO 13423(Bush II) and EO 13514(Obama) have lead to: mandating every government agency have a Agency Senior Sustainability Officer, who will submit yearly Strategic Sustainability Performance Plans. That should guarantee the word sustainability continue on its exponential growth.
The chart begs a question: how sustainable is sustainable? Further, does the chart point to a “sustainable” bubble? “Sustainable” bust ahead followed by sustainable bail-outs? If sustainable has been used so much, is there a class of 1% sustainable users and then the other 99%?
Post a Comment
Create a Link
Dr. Mark J. Perry is a professor of economics and finance in the School of Management at the Flint campus of the University of Michigan.
Perry holds two graduate degrees in economics (M.A. and Ph.D.) from George Mason University near Washington, D.C. In addition, he holds an MBA degree in finance from the Curtis L. Carlson School of Management at the University of Minnesota. In addition to a faculty appointment at the University of Michigan-Flint, Perry is also a visiting scholar at The American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C.
View my complete profile