Thursday, January 26, 2012

Interesting Fact of the Day

The jobless rate for the manufacturing sector of the U.S. economy was below the national jobless rate for each of the last seven months of 2011 from June through December.  That reversed a period from October 2008 to May 2011 when the manufacturing jobless rate was equal to or higher than the national average rate for 32 consecutive months.  The gap during that period was at its highest in April 2009 when the manufacturing jobless rate was almost 4 points higher at 12.4% than the national average rate of 8.6%.  There has never been any comparable 7-month period going back to when the BLS started tracking manufacturing jobless rates that the manufacturing unemployment rate was below the national average for that many consecutive months.

Update: See Table A-14 of the BLS Employment Report for jobless rates by industry. 

14 Comments:

At 1/26/2012 9:01 PM, Blogger Gene Hayward said...

Great commerical for CISCO during the Debate tonight. Illustrates nicely what Dr Perry has been saying about employment in manufacturing versus manufactuing output... http://youtu.be/2YwwbakR4sA

 
At 1/26/2012 9:31 PM, Blogger andyweintraub said...

It's not clear how an unemployment rate can be measured for an industry, given that workers are capable of moving from industry to industry.

 
At 1/26/2012 10:28 PM, Blogger seekingtraceevidence said...

Your your previous post on the rise of the US share of vehicle sales was due mostly to Ford which initiated "lean mfg" in 2005 under Mulally. "lean mfg" has become a significant force in US the past ~10yrs and US has accelerated its exports of mfg goods.
I think this is the reason for your mfg employment observation. Next 5-10yrs could show a positive balance of trade.

 
At 1/26/2012 10:47 PM, Blogger Benjamin said...

Print more dollars, Bernanke, make America an exporting nation again!!!!!!

 
At 1/27/2012 1:17 AM, Blogger Don Culo said...

This iks Obama's fault !!! We need a Newt to make America great again !!!

 
At 1/27/2012 3:48 AM, Blogger Unknown said...

I haven't seen the Baltic Dry Index for a while.

I guess it must be down.

 
At 1/27/2012 9:42 AM, Blogger morganovich said...

i'm with andy.

how can you measure unemployment for just manufacturing?

 
At 1/27/2012 10:48 AM, Blogger Mark J. Perry said...

The BLS calculates monthly jobless rate by industry and has been doing so back to January 2000, see update with link for more details

 
At 1/27/2012 11:02 AM, Blogger juandos said...

Interesting fact?

From the BEA: Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property
located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 2.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011
(that is, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter), according to the "advance" estimate released by the
Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 1.8 percent
...

From Zer0Hedge: The US economy grew at a 2.8% annualized pace in the supposedly blistering fourth quarter, yet the number was a disappointment not only in that it missed estimates of 3.0% (and far higher whisper numbers) but when one looks at the components, where a whopping 1.94% of the upside was attributable to a rise in inventories as restocking took place. And as everyone knows in this day and age a spike in inventories only leads to sub-cost dumping a few months later...

 
At 1/27/2012 12:21 PM, Blogger morganovich said...

mark-

thanks for the link, but i still have no idea how they do it. they don't lay out a methodology.

if i have worked in multiple industries (finance, software, etc) where owuld i fall? do they just look at you last job? how do they determine the size of the labor force?

this seems like an impossible task.

if i stopped working, which labor force would i fall in and for how long? given how frequently people change industries, this seems like an nearly impossible set of distinctions to draw.

home building goes bust, so people go to north dakota and work on oil drilling. that seems to break the buckets they draw up.

 
At 1/27/2012 1:36 PM, Blogger morganovich said...

juandos-

another "interesting fact" about the GDP number:

they used a 0.8% deflator. deflate that number at CPI (over 3% for q4) and you are looking at real growth of less than 0.6% even including inventories.

 
At 1/27/2012 2:18 PM, Blogger juandos said...

"they used a 0.8% deflator. deflate that number at CPI (over 3% for q4) and you are looking at real growth of less than 0.6% even including inventories"...

Oh my!

Very good observation there morganovich...

Thanks...

 
At 1/27/2012 2:18 PM, Blogger juandos said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

 
At 1/27/2012 4:50 PM, Blogger andyweintraub said...

Well, just because the BLS publishes unemployment rates by industry, it's hard to believe that they can be trusted. How do you classify, say, an actor who just got laid off because the play closed and is now working as a waiter? Is he unemployed in the theater industry?

A better measure of softness in the labor market for certain industries would be the layoff rate for that industry. Or, the reduction in employment in that industry.

 

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