Friday, September 09, 2011

"It's Not The End of the World" Friday Links

1. Scott Grannis updated his "20 Bullish Charts" from a year ago, and concludes that the economy is not at risk of a double-dip recession. 

2. Daniel Indiviglio of The Atlantic comes to the same conclusion in his article "That Double Dip Everybody's Talking About? It's Not Here."

3. The Conference Board reported this week that the Leading Economic Indexes for July increased in Japan (+0.90%) and the U.K. (+0.30%). 

4. Monster Employment Indexes increased in August for the U.S. (+8% from last year) and Europe (+21% annual growth).  

5. According to new data from the New York Fed, there is only a 1-in-40 chance of a recession through August 2012 (2.41% probability).    

Update:

6. Why the Economy Might Not Be as Bad as You Think

7 Comments:

At 9/09/2011 4:52 PM, Blogger ws4whgfb said...

I think this focus on a double dip recession is misguided. What people would like to see is healthy growth like 3% or more. Who cares if we have .5%, 0 or -.5% growth. They are all approximately the same level of suck.

What is the point of citing all that great economic news when unemployment is high and the stockmarket is low? How are statistics helpful when people are unempolyed and their investments are not providing a meaningful return on investment? You can't buy groceries or pay rent with a statistic.

 
At 9/09/2011 5:39 PM, Blogger Andrew_M_Garland said...

Why aren't GDP statistics adjusted for number of people in the available workforce, working or unworking?

As an extreme example only, if the population (available to work) doubles while GDP increases 50%, I would call that a recession. Many people have become poorer.

 
At 9/09/2011 8:21 PM, Blogger Rufus II said...

The Fed's nuts; we'll print negative in the 4th qtr.

Although, it's hard to call it a double-dip inasmuch as we haven't, and we won't, get back to the Real GDP of the 4th qtr '07 before we head back down.

 
At 9/10/2011 2:09 AM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

 
At 9/10/2011 2:47 AM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

Andrew, I think, U.S. per capita real GDP is still below the 2007 peak.

This weak recovery has been very expensive, which we'll all pay for, one way or another.

The federal government still has one foot on the accelerator and the other foot on the brake.

A huge amount of government stimulus (fiscal and monetary) has been wasted.

 
At 9/10/2011 7:01 AM, Blogger sykes.1 said...

Five utterly insane statements. Or, are you merely indulging in black humor?

There has been no recovery. We are still at the bottom of the recession. The fed employment statistics are fraudulent.

Our political and financial leadership is delusional.

 
At 9/10/2011 12:06 PM, Blogger juandos said...

Well Obama apologist Indiviglio not withstanding there are a lot of people saying differently...

One of them is that other Obama apologist outfit, the New York Times...

So who to believe?

 

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