Friday, April 01, 2011

15-Mo. Job Growth Returns to Pre-Recession Level

Today's BLS employment report shows that 1.904 million jobs (civilian employment, household data here) were created over the last 15 months through March since the cyclical low of 137.96 million jobs in December 2009 (now at 139.864 million total employment), see chart above.  That's the greatest number of total jobs created over a 15-month period since November 2007, the month before the recession officially started, and implies that job growth has returned to its pre-recession levels. 

15 Comments:

At 4/01/2011 11:17 AM, Blogger Benjamin said...

Against much criticism, Mr. Bernanke has slew the Bu$h recession.

All hail Mr. Bernanke!

 
At 4/01/2011 11:30 AM, Blogger morganovich said...

is that net jobs?

because that looks awfully high compared to the BLS numbers.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

according to the BLS, last 12 months change in employment has been

139,864 now - 138,952 then = 912k

given population growth, that is actually a drop in the employment to population ratio from 58.6 to 58.5.

this whole purported drop in unemployment is just statistical charlatanry centered around a drop in the reported civilian workforce from 153,985 last year to 153,406, a drop of 579k. given an increase in population of 1,841k over the same period, it's obvious that the whole of the unemployment decline is a statistical artifact of the 70bp drop in participation rate.

when the employment to population ration is actually dropping, it's pretty difficult to take a reported decline in unemployment seriously.

 
At 4/01/2011 12:30 PM, Blogger Che is dead said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

 
At 4/01/2011 12:31 PM, Blogger Che is dead said...

Gallup Finds U.S. Unemployment Rate at 10.0% in March

HT/ Instapundit

 
At 4/01/2011 12:36 PM, Blogger Che is dead said...

"U.S. consumers face "serious" inflation in the months ahead for clothing, food and other products, the head of Wal-Mart's U.S. operations warned Wednesday."

"... inflation is "going to be serious," Wal-Mart U.S. CEO Bill Simon said during a meeting with USA TODAY's editorial board. "We're seeing cost increases starting to come through at a pretty rapid rate."

Wal-Mart CEO Bill Simon expects inflation, USA Today

Yes, "All hail Mr. Bernanke!"

 
At 4/01/2011 12:44 PM, Blogger morganovich said...

"inflation is "going to be serious""

it already is serious.

the MIT billion prices project daily index has taken off so far this year.

it is reading 1.9% inflation year to date, which annualizes to 7.93%. (101.0892 at beginning of the year vs 103.0369 at 3/31)

and those are internet prices that you would expect to have less inflation than the broader economy due to greater competition and the exclusion of things like healthcare, food, and fuel that are increasing in price more rapidly than the average.

inflation isn't coming, it's already here.

 
At 4/01/2011 12:53 PM, Blogger morganovich said...

and here's the scariest employment news:

(from the WSJ)

"If you want to understand better why so many states—from New York to Wisconsin to California—are teetering on the brink of bankruptcy, consider this depressing statistic: Today in America there are nearly twice as many people working for the government (22.5 million) than in all of manufacturing (11.5 million). This is an almost exact reversal of the situation in 1960, when there were 15 million workers in manufacturing and 8.7 million collecting a paycheck from the government.

It gets worse. More Americans work for the government than work in construction, farming, fishing, forestry, manufacturing, mining and utilities combined. We have moved decisively from a nation of makers to a nation of takers. Nearly half of the $2.2 trillion cost of state and local governments is the $1 trillion-a-year tab for pay and benefits of state and local employees. Is it any wonder that so many states and cities cannot pay their bills?

Every state in America today except for two—Indiana and Wisconsin—has more government workers on the payroll than people manufacturing industrial goods"

 
At 4/01/2011 1:36 PM, Blogger wawawawa said...

As a student of economics, I was wondering if the entire US population was included when calculating employment-population ratios and/or the labor force participation rate? IE: are the baby-boomer retirees going to cause permanent changes in these metrics?

 
At 4/01/2011 2:42 PM, Blogger juandos said...

"Against much criticism, Mr. Bernanke has slew the Bu$h recession"...

pseudo benny, what a dumb @$$! Unemployments rates were never this high (on average it was half the rate) while Bush was in office...

"15-Mo. Job Growth Returns to Pre-Recession Level"...

I don't think so...

What has risen if Stephen Moore of the WSJ is correct in his opinion piece (it is April fools after all) is that We've Become a Nation of Takers, Not Makers

Today in America there are nearly twice as many people working for the government (22.5 million) than in all of manufacturing (11.5 million). This is an almost exact reversal of the situation in 1960, when there were 15 million workers in manufacturing and 8.7 million collecting a paycheck from the government...

Its NOT job growth, its PAYCHECK growth...

Since there is no REAL money behind it, won't this help drive inflation?

 
At 4/01/2011 2:43 PM, Blogger morganovich said...

wa-

"I was wondering if the entire US population was included when calculating employment-population ratios and/or the labor force participation rate?"

no, they are not.

they are calculated using a value called "civilian non-institutional population".

the figure for 3/11 was 239mn, far less (22.2%) than the full 307mn US population.

CNIP is all free americans aged 16+.

thus, retiring boomers will tend to drive the participation rate down, but not at the rates seen in the last 24 months.

 
At 4/01/2011 3:43 PM, Blogger juandos said...

re: pseudo benny's hero:

From Bloomberg: Foreign Banks Tapped Fed's Lifeline Most as Bernanke Kept Borrowers Secret

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s two-year fight to shield crisis-squeezed banks from the stigma of revealing their public loans protected a lender to local governments in Belgium, a Japanese fishing-cooperative financier and a company part-owned by the Central Bank of Libya...

 
At 4/01/2011 5:09 PM, Blogger Dr. T said...

"That's the greatest number of total jobs created... and implies that job growth..."

... numbers are massaged and inflated by the Obama administration in a desperate attempt to "prove" that stimulus spending and deficit spending create jobs.

What were the numbers of jobs destroyed since 2007? As morganovich said, "is that net jobs?"

The federal government's gaming of employment and economic data is the worst yet. Obama and his paid flunkies flat out lied about stimulus-related job creation. The actual unemployment rate is 67% higher than the official rate that fails to include the following people: workers who lost jobs and gave up hunting for new ones, workers who became unemployed and are no longer eligible for unemployment payouts after 26-99 weeks, college and high school graduates who have not found a job (They hadn't worked, so they aren't eligible for unemployment.), and people who voluntarily stopped working (mostly female parents) and now want (or need) to work but cannot find jobs.

 
At 4/01/2011 5:42 PM, Blogger juandos said...

"The actual unemployment rate is 67% higher than the official rate..."...

Vonsider the following: Gallup Finds U.S. Unemployment Rate at 10.0% in March - Underemployment falls to 19.3% from 19.9% at the end of February

 
At 4/02/2011 5:28 AM, Blogger juandos said...

Thank you Zer0Hedge:

More Relentless BS From The BLS (And Princeton) Forces Santelli To Snap
(great 10 min video clip)


US Must Create 245,500 Jobs A Month To Return To December 2007 Employment Rate By End Of Obama Second Term

 
At 4/02/2011 11:16 AM, Blogger VangelV said...

this whole purported drop in unemployment is just statistical charlatanry centered around a drop in the reported civilian workforce from 153,985 last year to 153,406, a drop of 579k. given an increase in population of 1,841k over the same period, it's obvious that the whole of the unemployment decline is a statistical artifact of the 70bp drop in participation rate.

I agree. While the fools can cheer the reports the smart money is looking to the underlying statistical games and is not impressed. The USD is toast and inflation is rising. There is no way for all of the manipulation to continue without something breaking, which is why the political elite is hoping for more major earthquakes, natural disasters, or outright military engagement to divert attention from the very ugly macroeconomic picture. Buy silver and gold and cheer the naive idiots who are refusing to see reality as it is.

 

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