Thursday, March 31, 2011

Monster Employment Index Increases by 9% in March: 14th Straight Month of Annual Growth

The U.S. Monster Employment Index was released today, here are some highlights:

1. The March index rose to 136 in March, up from 129 in February and up by 9% compared to the year-ago level of 125.  

2. The annual increase in March was the 14th consecutive year-over-year increase in the Monster Index starting in February last year (see chart above).  

3. All 28 metro markets covered by the Monster Index recorded positive annual growth in March, with Detroit (+51%), Philadelphia (+40%) and Chicago (+29%) registering the largest gains. 

4. 14 of the 20 industries covered by the Monster Index increased on an annual basis, as did 17 of the 23 occupational categories.

5. Monster spokesman and VP Jesse Harriott said "The March Index reinforces a consensus from other leading indicators that the labor market is continuing to grow at a measured pace.
“We continue to see the impact of an increased demand for specialized IT talent as well as sustainable recruitment levels for all related healthcare occupations. We are now seeing hopeful signs in the wholesale trade and manufacturing sectors which are historically considered foundations of an improving economy.”

6 Comments:

At 3/31/2011 9:08 AM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

Here's one view:

What is the U.S. Employment Picture in Really Saying?
Mar 31, 2011

The mystery behind the lingering unemployment levels can be explained by the fact that the recession is still ongoing. It has now surpassed the duration of the longest recession seen during the Great Depression.

The combined effects of soaring commodity prices, turmoil in the Middle East, lingering high unemployment in the U.S. with no efforts by Washington to address the issue, a real estate market in the U.S. that continues to weaken, continued problems in Europe, and the catastrophic events in Japan – have added to already worrisome levels of global economic and financial risk.

The lack of real job growth, combined with the absence of real wage hikes confirms that there will be no double dip recession, as the recession which began in December 2007 has not yet ended.

America’s Second Great Depression will persist for years to come, and will be made worse if Washington continues to ignore the fundamental economic problems of unfair trade, the broken healthcare system and pension deficits.

 
At 3/31/2011 10:10 AM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

Dr Doom on rising commodity prices:

NOURIEL ROUBINI: Mideast crises raise risk of double-dip recession
2011/03/30

The latest increases in oil prices — and the related increases in other commodity prices, especially food — imply several unfortunate consequences.

First, inflationary pressure will grow in already overheating emerging market economies, where oil and food prices represent up to two-thirds of the consumption basket. Given weak demand in slow-growing advanced economies, rising commodity prices may lead only to a small first-round effect on headline inflation, with little second-round influence on core inflation. But advanced countries will not emerge unscathed.

Indeed, the second risk posed by higher oil prices — a terms-of-trade and disposable income shock to all energy and commodity importers — will hit advanced economies especially hard, as they have barely emerged from recession and are still experiencing an anaemic recovery.

The third risk is that rising oil prices reduce investor confidence and increase risk aversion, leading to stock-market corrections that have negative wealth effects on consumption and capital spending. Business and consumer confidence are also likely to take a hit, further undermining demand.

If oil prices rise much further — towards the peaks of 2008 — the advanced economies will slow sharply; many might even slip back into recession. And, even if prices remain at current levels for most of the year, global growth will slow and inflation will rise.

 
At 3/31/2011 11:20 AM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

At best, this slow U-shaped economic recovery will continue, with the country closing the output gap and reaching full employment in four or five years, unless there's a heavy dose of Reaganomics:

1. Cut government spending.
2. Cut taxes.
3. Deregulate (e.g. energy, health care, and education).

 
At 3/31/2011 2:26 PM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

We need two or three years of strong real growth similar to 1934-36 (although, there was a double-dip in 1937-38):

Heading for a double dip
Robert Reich
March 31, 2011

Consider that back in 1934, when it was emerging from the deepest hole of the Great Depression, the economy grew 7.7 percent. The next year it grew over 8 percent. In 1936 it grew a whopping 14.1 percent.

Wikipedia:

In June 1937, the Roosevelt administration cut spending and increased taxation in an attempt to balance the federal budget.

The American economy then took a sharp downturn, lasting for 13 months through most of 1938.

Industrial production fell almost 30 per cent within a few months and production of durable goods fell even faster. Unemployment jumped from 14.3% in 1937 to 19.0% in 1938...Manufacturing output fell by 37% from the 1937 peak and was back to 1934 levels.

 
At 3/31/2011 8:19 PM, Blogger Hydra said...

Maybe we just have a lot of people not worth hiring.

 
At 4/01/2011 7:02 AM, Blogger geoih said...

What about all those declines in the index through 2010 when you were also saying that the economy was improving?

If the economy was improving while the index was declining, and it's also improving while the index is increasing, then there's no correlation between the index and the condition of the economy.

 

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