Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Empire State Manufacturing Continues to Improve

NY Fed -- "The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers continued to improve in March. The general business conditions index inched up 2 points, to 17.5 (see chart above). The new orders and shipments indexes fell but remained above zero, while the unfilled orders index rose above zero for the first time in a year. Price indexes continued to climb, suggesting that price increases had accelerated. Employment indexes were positive and above their February levels, indicating that employment had expanded. Future indexes were little changed, as respondents continued to be strongly optimistic about the six month outlook, although future price indexes were sharply higher."

MP: The ongoing expansion of manufacturing activity in New York supports the notion that America's manufacturing sector continues to be the "shining star of the U.S. economic recovery," registering ongoing gains in output and employment.   


At 3/15/2011 10:02 AM, Blogger morganovich said...

ahh, but did you catch the inflation numbers?

look at prices paid in the empire release:

"Prices Continue to Accelerate
The indexes for prices paid and
prices received showed that
prices continued to accelerate in March; the trend was particularly
pronounced in the case of the prices paid index, which rose a cumulative 31 points over the past four months. This month, the index advanced 7 points to 53.3, with 53 percentof respondents reporting higherinput prices while no respondents reported lower prices"

then, look at I/X:

import prices up 1.4% in feb after 1.3% in jan.

export prices up 1.2% after 1.3% in jan.

there are HUGE numbers.

food prices up the most of any 12 month period since records began in 1977.

annualized YTD daily price inflation on the MIT BPP is 6.7% (and climbing) and those are the most competitive prices around and tend to mostly exclude food, healthcare, and fuel.

and yet today we are going to hear the beard go on TV and tell us that inflation is under control and the "recovery" is OK.

At 3/15/2011 10:03 AM, Blogger morganovich said...

forgot to link to the source on the I/X data:


At 3/16/2011 5:46 AM, Blogger cluemeister said...

I've been saving money on heating costs lately by burning all the price increase letters my vendors are sending me.

At 3/16/2011 8:38 AM, Blogger morganovich said...


well, this should keep you warm:

"WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — U.S. wholesale prices jumped a seasonally-adjusted 1.6% in February as food costs experienced the biggest one-month rise since 1974, the Labor Department reported Wednesday.

The rise in producer prices last month follows increases of 0.8% in January and 0.9% in December

The wholesale price of food saw the biggest increase last month. The food index surged 3.9%, the largest gain since November 1974. Most of the increase stemmed from higher cost of fresh and dry vegetables."

the bad news is that all the recent data implies that march is going to be even worse.

the "inflation is under control" school is looking increasingly delusional, particularly around food which is really starting to spike.

all indications are than inflation is already 6-7% and accelerating.

even the MIT BPP (which is comparable to core, not overall inflation as it tends to exclude food, fuel, and healthcare though i am often amazed that people would have us believe these are not core expenses as they are among the most critical and least deferable) is now showing 3% annual inflation and a massive acceleration since jan 1 2011.

this year, the BPP has registered a 1.7% gain in prices, which annualizes to over 7% (based on new 3/15 data). (and note that this number is considerably lower than the im/ex inflation numbers)

if these are stable prices, i'd hate to see what bernanke thinks inflation looks like.


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