OECD (March 14)
-- "Composite leading indicators (CLIs) for January 2011, designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend, continue pointing to expansion in most OECD countries. The CLIs for Germany, Japan, and the United States continue pointing to robust expansion relative to trend. Signs of regained growth momentum characterise the CLIs for France and Canada. The CLI for the United Kingdom points to a slow but stable pace of expansion. The CLI for Italy continues pointing to a moderate downturn.
The CLIs for other major economies are little changed from last month’s assessment. The CLI for China continues pointing to the possibility of a moderate downturn. The CLI for Brazil remains near its long-term potential. The CLI for India continues pointing to a slowdown relative to trend and the CLI for Russia continues pointing to expansion."
MP: The January CLI reached 103.1, the highest level since May 2007 before the global economic slowdown. Except for three monthly declines in May-July 2010, the CLI has been on a positive upward trend for almost two years now, since March 2009. Compared to the cyclical low of 90.7 in February 2009, the CLI has increased by more than 12 points to 103.1 in January.