Wednesday, January 05, 2011

ADP: +270k Jobs in Dec., Largest Gain on Record

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- "Private sector payrolls soared 297,000 in December, payroll processor ADP announced Wednesday.The gain marks the 11th consecutive month of increases, and was much larger than economists had expected. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com were forecasting an increase of 100,000 jobs.  

The increase in hiring was led by the services sector, with employers adding 270,000 jobs in December. That's the highest jump on record, ADP said. That's a positive sign for the economy, with the government's highly-anticipated monthly unemployment report due Friday."

18 Comments:

At 1/05/2011 9:34 AM, Blogger VangelV said...

With retail spending expected to be higher it is no surprise that the jobs number went up. While this is great for the dollar and some stocks it is not too good for the bond market, which will be under pressure and all those people who have mortgages that are about to see their rates reset.

Keep an eye on the municipal bond market. It will tell us what we need to know.

 
At 1/05/2011 9:51 AM, Blogger sethstorm said...

Seasonal jump?

 
At 1/05/2011 10:04 AM, Blogger Sean said...

Clearly the result of the midterm congressionsal elections and increasing certainty...

 
At 1/05/2011 10:15 AM, Blogger VangelV said...

Clearly the result of the midterm congressionsal elections and increasing certainty...

That is very funny. Thanks.

 
At 1/05/2011 11:30 AM, Blogger juandos said...

Well it seems that those job gains didn't quite look so rosy in many (but not all) of the larger urban areas...

According to the BLS Of the 49 metropolitan areas with a Census 2000 population of 1 million or more, Las Vegas-Paradise, Nev., and Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif., registered the highest unemployment rates in November, 14.3 percent each. Fourteen additional large areas posted rates of 10.0 percent or more...

 
At 1/05/2011 12:14 PM, Blogger Benjamin said...

Baby, the Fat Lady is singing on this Bush jr. Great Recession, just as I told you all about a year ago.
She started off slow, but now she has sprayed some tonic into her mouth, downed a couple of pecan liquers, hiked up her skirt, and started to belt it out from down deep.
She is getting her timing and bouncing up and down, she knows she has many acts to go.
Start singing along, or head to the Loser's Lounge out by the foyer.

 
At 1/05/2011 12:29 PM, Blogger VangelV said...

Start singing along, or head to the Loser's Lounge out by the foyer.

U-6 is still above 17%. The states are bankrupt and the Fed will buy more than half of the government treasuries. On what planet do you live again?

And suppose that the economy picks up. How do the banks survive when interest rates move sharply higher and mortgage rates resets force even more people to walk away from homes? How do the states afford to borrow at the higher rates? And how do all the idiots who ran into bonds handle the big losses in their portfolios?

 
At 1/05/2011 12:58 PM, Blogger Benjamin said...

Vange-

Okay, I'll walk back to the Loser's Lounge to have a smoke and chat with you.

Bubelah, it's like this: When the economy grows, it solves a myriad of sins. And it is growing again, and employment is growing.

Interest rates? And what have interest rates done in Japan? They are flat as a dead cobra.

Interest rates will be flat for years hence, maybe decades. "Too much money chasing too few deals." That will be the new norm for decades. High global savings rates are the reason.

Inflation is dead too. Unit labor costs are going down, not up. Commercial rents of all types softer than a Liberace handshake. That's 70 percent of all business costs right there.

Japan tried QE 2001-2006, and it helped them grow, and they had no inflation. Why they gave it up, I do not know. BoJ central bankers were pettifogging about "price stability." Well, they have it, in spades.

The US economy has grown 150 percent in the last 20 years, while Japan has grown by 15 percent. They face another eight years of deflation, say bond traders.

Some inflation is good for the economy. Bernanke knows it. He knows what happened in Japan.

Bernanke has zero charm, but he is good and smart.

Okay, I am going back to my front row seats. The Fat Lady is sweating and singing, and dancing, and her huge gifts are bouncing around, the bass beat is pounding, and they are just getting warmed up. There is a long good show
on tap. I think I'll try some of those praline liquers.

 
At 1/05/2011 1:52 PM, Blogger Sean said...

That is very funny. Thanks.

You're welcome.

 
At 1/05/2011 2:09 PM, Blogger juandos said...

"Baby, the Fat Lady is singing on this Bush jr. Great Recession, just as I told you all about a year ago"...

Well you're still wrong like you were a year ago pseudo benny but then again you consider wikipedia a credible source...

National Debt Tops $14 Trillion makes one wonder if the recession really is over...

 
At 1/05/2011 5:47 PM, Blogger Benjamin said...

Juandos-

Loosen up. Dow going to break all-time records this year.

Have a praline liquer on me. It tastes like something they would give you in a New Orleans bordello.

Down a couple of those, and you will start to feel the optimism.

 
At 1/05/2011 7:56 PM, Blogger juandos said...

"Dow going to break all-time records this year"...

It will now that the economy killing clown is no longer in charge...

 
At 1/05/2011 8:31 PM, Blogger juandos said...

One more thing I forgot to add pseudo benny, you might want to take a look at this Investors Business Daily commentary: Obama's Oil War

 
At 1/05/2011 10:07 PM, Blogger VangelV said...

Bubelah, it's like this: When the economy grows, it solves a myriad of sins. And it is growing again, and employment is growing.

But that is the problem. It isn't growing fast enough to allow the federal government, the states, or individuals to pay down debts. Tax revenues are not keeping up with population or inflation while liabilities are exploding. The Boomers have started to retire and you are facing an intrusive healthcare bill that will increase total costs sharply and two wars that are bankrupting the country.

I will believe that there is a possible recovery when the troops have been pulled back home, around 60% of the Pentagon overhead has been cut, the bases in Iraq, Germany, Korea, Japan, Cuba, and other countries are closed, and when Congress announces that spending will be reduced to less than 15% of GDP.

From what I can tell, Fannie and Freddie will cost taxpayers $800 billion more. So will the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Add $500 billion in extra spending due to the health care bill and you are looking at serious coin. And I am not even counting QE3, QE4, bailing out the states, etc. Unfunded liabilities stand at more than $100 trillion.

There is no way out, no matter how much you want to tell us a nice story.

 
At 1/05/2011 11:04 PM, Blogger VangelV said...

Interest rates? And what have interest rates done in Japan? They are flat as a dead cobra.

Japan did not have to sell its debt to foreigners to finance government activities. The US does.

Interest rates will be flat for years hence, maybe decades. "Too much money chasing too few deals." That will be the new norm for decades. High global savings rates are the reason.

Since Bernanke announced QE2 interest rates moved higher and bond holders saw most of their gains for the years wiped out.

Inflation is dead too. Unit labor costs are going down, not up. Commercial rents of all types softer than a Liberace handshake. That's 70 percent of all business costs right there.

Food prices went up. Insurance and taxes went up. Prices for medical care went up. Tuition went up. Gasoline prices went up. Clothing prices went up. I guess that if you don't eat or drink, don't use gasoline, insurance, or doctors and if you don't have kids in school there is no price inflation. For the other 95% there is.

Japan tried QE 2001-2006, and it helped them grow, and they had no inflation. Why they gave it up, I do not know. BoJ central bankers were pettifogging about "price stability." Well, they have it, in spades.

They gave it up because they did not want the Yen to go the way of the Argentine Peso. The Japanese workers did fine because they saw their real wages increase. That did not happen for American workers.

 
At 1/05/2011 11:34 PM, Blogger VangelV said...

The US economy has grown 150 percent in the last 20 years, while Japan has grown by 15 percent. They face another eight years of deflation, say bond traders.

Sorry but things are not exactly as you imagine them. In 1985, 25 years ago, American GDP was 3.1 times bigger than Japan's GDP. By 1990 Japan's growth had taken that number down to 1.9 but Japan crashed. In 2010 American GDP only 2.8 times bigger than Japan's GDP. It took a 20 year depression and that is the best that you could do?

If you want to see what real growth looks like look to China instead. In 1985, China's GDP was that of Japan's. By 1990 Japan's growth had taken that number down to 11%. In 2010 China's GDP is 2% larger than Japan's GDP.

You can check the numbers, here.

Some inflation is good for the economy. Bernanke knows it. He knows what happened in Japan.

You are not Japan and cannot survive a depression because you are a net debtor. Inflating the money supply will only lead to a loss of the USD's status as the primary reserve currency and will make Americans much poorer. Already China, Brazil, Russia and the Middle Eastern countries are using each other's currencies to facilitate trade with each other instead of the USD. Even Bernanke is not that big of a moron and knows what that could mean.

Bernanke has zero charm, but he is good and smart.

He is not good. And any idiot can be smart. Unless you have the right foundation being smart is dangerous.

Okay, I am going back to my front row seats. The Fat Lady is sweating and singing, and dancing, and her huge gifts are bouncing around, the bass beat is pounding, and they are just getting warmed up. There is a long good show on tap. I think I'll try some of those praline liquers.

That is what makes a market. To win we need a few suckers to buy the hype. You go right ahead. I think that I will stick to what has worked so well for the past decade and keep betting against the USD and a sustainable recovery.

 
At 1/06/2011 1:22 PM, Blogger juandos said...

Don't worry, be happy, the end is near: Why the World Is Financially Doomed in Four Charts

 
At 1/06/2011 2:14 PM, Blogger juandos said...

Well the folks over at Investors Business Daily are optimistic also...

Jobs, Services Data Suggest Economy Stepped Up In Dec

 

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