Professor Mark J. Perry's Blog for Economics and Finance
Dr. Mark J. Perry is a professor of economics and finance in the School of Management at the Flint campus of the University of Michigan. Perry holds two graduate degrees in economics (M.A. and Ph.D.) from George Mason University near Washington, D.C. In addition, he holds an MBA degree in finance from the Curtis L. Carlson School of Management at the University of Minnesota. In addition to a faculty appointment at the University of Michigan-Flint, Perry is also a visiting scholar at The American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C.
24 Comments:
"Driven by a wide range of upbeat grassroots economic news..."...
I think that sentiment is driven by delusion at least in part...
How many people have purposefully stepped off the monetary grid on purpose?
How many people expect the Congress and the administration (in the near future regardless of which party holds control of the administration) to attempt to pull a varient this sort of Euro weasel trick?
Kiss the Bush crone-recession goodbye, and say hello to the big beautiful Obama recovery. This is going to be one long economic roll in the hay.
Inflation is dead, interest rates are low, and capital is abundant.
Come on baby, light my fire.
"Positive media coverage on the return of $3 per gallon gas helped push up the indicator as well, with most reports portraying the rise as a sign of returning economic activity."
Well gee, since gasoline is up over 100% since Obama took office (and inflation is only 1% - oh, but wait that doesn't count food, energy and housing - never mind), I guess things have never been better...
How about the return to 1.75 qt and now 1.5 qt "half gallons" of ice cream or 4-lb bags of sugar for the same old 5-lb price?
What's next? Federal Reserve press releases that this year's coming multiple increases in the federal debt ceiling are a sign of returning economic activity?
When the door to the safe is dynamited off and there is a trail of green paper leaving the bank back door, that's a sign of "economic activity" too.
"Kiss the Bush crone-recession goodbye, and say hello to the big beautiful Obama recovery"...
Hey pseudo benny, what planet did that supposedly happen on? A planet in this galaxy?
Meanwhile on planet earth you should look to your fellow travelers as the source for most of the financial problems we're still going through...
Jaundos-
The economy and our financial system all but collpased on Bush's watch. We are nor recovering.
Really, how much of this is disputable?
The Obama team inherited a train wreck into a sewage treatment plant.
Now, we can target 4 percent GDP growth for 2011.
In truth, I don't know how much credit, if any, to give to Obama, though I think Bernanke has done very well.
I do think if Bush was still president we would be in the Great Depression II--while Bush laid blame at some previous administration's door. Bush had the reverse Midas touch.
Benji,
Your boyfriend inherited a mess he helped create, and has done nothing but pour more gas on the fire. What exactly do you credit him for doing? He's run up more debt that Washington through Reagan combined in only 2 miserable years. He shut down oil drilling in the gulf. He passed his Obamacare monstrosity, bashed business, and has the risk takers hiding out until your boyfriend takes his boot off their neck.
Yeah, the economy is trying to recover in spite of his economic wrecking ball, but he and his fellow socialists at the EPA and other regulatory bodies may kill the recovery yet.
"..while Bush laid blame at some previous administration's door."
I don't remember Bush ever pointing the finger in spite of inheriting the Clinton recession. Contrast that with your boyfriend who incessantly blames Bush for everything.
Paul-
After the financial collapsed on Bush jr.'s watch, Bush jr. went on national TV. hiked up his short pants manfully, and blamed problems that started "10 years earlier" for causing complete mayhem on Wall Street.
After eight years of Bush leadership (mostly with R-Party Congresses and Supreme Court), the Dow was lower than when Bush jr. assumed office, federal surpluss had become deficits, the GDP was shrinking, and most big investment and commercial banks in America were belly up. Oh, and we were stuck in two wars, going nowhere fast.
Bush jr. accomplished all that in just eight years.
Things are getting better now. The GDP is growing again, the Dow is nearly back to all-time highs, and federal deficits will begin shrinking again soon. We will get out of Iraq next year, and let's hope Afghanie even before 2014.
The worst is over. I think the Dow beats 13,000 this year easy, and inflation to deader than Liberace.
Bush jr. is wisely sticking to clearing brush and planting wildflowers on his ranchette in Crawford. He is eyeing those beer and pretzels, and all the great playoff games on tap.
Man, it is a crazy world, you can be the least competent US president in history, nearly wreck your country, but who cares?
Life is good, Super Bowl coming up.
President Bush increased the debt and stimulated the economy $5 trillion in eight years. In the same period, household debt increased or stimulated the economy another $7 trillion. The Federal Reserve stimulated the economy a trillion dollars in the remainder of 2008. By January 2009, when Obama was sworn in as President, the economy had been stimulated $13 trillion in eight years. President Obama in two years has now stimulated the economy another $3 trillion and last month unemployment increased.
All we have to show for all this spending is that leading indicators are mostly positive. Even if last month’s unemployment proves to a statistical fluke which I expect it was the long term outlook is not good. We have been down this road before. As long as we are spending borrowed or newly created money as QE2 is doing now we drive the leading indicators artificially positive. Remember how positive things looked a year ago? Then the spending programs came to an end and down we went.
Why will it be different when QE2 and the rest of the debt spending end this time?
"The economy and our financial system all but collpased on Bush's watch"...
Wrong again pseudo benny, it collapsed due to the actions of Reid and Pelosi when the Dems took over Congress after 2006...
Bush did have an aversion to using the 'veto pen' though...
"The Obama team inherited a train wreck into a sewage treatment plant"...
A train wreck Obama helped create...
Obama Senate track record
"I do think if Bush was still president we would be in the Great Depression II--while Bush laid blame at some previous administration's door. Bush had the reverse Midas touch"...
ROFlMAO!
Bush vs Obama - employment numbers
Benji,
"Things are getting better now. The GDP is growing again, the Dow is nearly back to all-time highs, and federal deficits will begin shrinking again soon. "
Now tell us what positive steps your boyfriend took to achieve this. You have said nothing thus far to demonstrate why Bush should get all the blame for the economic collapse, nor why your boyfriend should get any of the credit for the economy bouncing up from the bottom.
Benji,
"After the financial collapsed on Bush jr.'s watch, Bush jr. went on national TV. hiked up his short pants manfully, and blamed problems that started "10 years earlier" for causing complete mayhem on Wall Street"
If you say so. It it's true, he is helped by the fact that it's a true statement. But when did Bush blame the previous administration for his inheritance of the Clinton recesssion? Compare to your boyfriend's never ending whining about Bush.
Paul/Jaundos:
Listen, from 2000-2006, Bush had the White House, the R-Party ruled Congress and the Supreme Court.
That fact is, even if something the Bad Dems had done was going to timebomb the economy on Bush jr's watch, he had a whole six years to correct it.
Instead, we had a financial and economic collapse, a soaring federal deficit, and the $3 trillion follies in Iraqistan. This was not Obama's fault. He was just a junior Senator, freshman.
Obama brought in Clinton's team, and they have us going again in the right direction. Bernanke is doing a good job too.
I see good times ahead, 13,000 on the Dow this year. Property starts to recover. The long Bush jr. national nightmare is over.
Bring on the boom times, 'cause baby I am ready.
And once again, Benji, you have pointed to nothing specific either Bush or Obama has done to receive credit or blame.
"Listen, from 2000-2006, Bush had the White House, the R-Party ruled Congress and the Supreme Court."
Actually 2001-2006. After the Clinton recession ended, the economy boomed.
"Instead, we had a financial and economic collapse, a soaring federal deficit.."
The deficit soared the moment Pelosi/Reid began their disastrous rule. The economy collapsed in 2008. I think I'll do a Benji here and blame it on the Pelosi Congress since it happened on their watch. Everything was fine under unified GOP rule.
"This was not Obama's fault. He was just a junior Senator, freshman."
He voted for the disastrous Pelosi/Reid budgets and other reckeless Democrat policies. Citizens Against Government Waste and National Taxpayer Union ratings gave his voting record the equivalents of a big, fat F. Also, he sued Citibank in '90's on behalf of Acorn to force it to
give out bad loans.
"Obama brought in Clinton's team, and they have us going again in the right direction."
The right direction would be the staggering, unprecedented debt they've run up in only 2 years? I thought the Clinton team were fiscal super hawks, Benji? What was their finest hour under Obama? The stimulus? Cash-for -Clunkers? Obamacare? Shutting down drilling in the gulf? Mandatory carbon limits from the EPA? Please tell us what Milton Friedman would say about your boyfriend's war on capitalism.
"Listen, from 2000-2006, Bush had the White House, the R-Party ruled Congress and the Supreme Court"...
The Supreme Court?!?!
What?!?!
"That fact is, even if something the Bad Dems had done was going to timebomb the economy on Bush jr's watch, he had a whole six years to correct it"...
There wasn't that much wrong with the economy then other than the time bombs left by FDR (a Dem) and LBJ (another Dem, imagine that!!) that are still ticking away and promising economic collapse...
It's true though like I said before, Bush had an aversion to the veto pen...
"Instead, we had a financial and economic collapse, a soaring federal deficit, and the $3 trillion follies in Iraqistan"...
On what planet did this happen on pseudo benny?
Comparison for Benny
"Obama brought in Clinton's team, and they have us going again in the right direction. Bernanke is doing a good job too"...
Really?!?!
A good job, eh?
Obama Added More to National Debt in First 19 Months Than All Presidents from Washington Through Reagan Combined, Says Gov’t Data
Hee's what the accelerating debt looks like: Here's what one second of national debt looks like
Juandos,
Benji will run away now like he always does.
When I go to work in the morning I see trucks full of trusses and house panels. Haven't seen that for a while, so that is my leading grassroots indicator.
I'm quite sure Obama had nothing to do with those trusses, and even more sure Bush didn't.
The Chinese and the Saudis can worry about the debt. Its not gonna come out of my pocket, so why worry?
Juandos-
Much of the federal debt is "automatic stabilizers"--revenues go down, and unemployment etc goes up. Then you have the Iraqistan follies, which are incredibly expensive. Check out the CBO's $3 trillion and counting estimate of those wars costs. Wikipedia.
Paul--I hope you have good luck on Wall Street in 2011, I think it is going to be a great year. I see the Dow over 13,000.
"Much of the federal debt is "automatic stabilizers"--revenues go down, and unemployment etc goes up."
And much of it gets poured down a rat hole on failed liberal programs that your boyfriend fully endorses.
"I hope you have good luck on Wall Street in 2011, I think it is going to be a great year."
Maybe, the price of oil is climbing again. Would be nice if the Democrats would let us drill. In any case, an upswing in the DOW will be in spite of, not because of, your boyfriend's policies.
You still haven't given us any specific growth policies he's implemented.
a serious question, especially for you benji-
why do you insist on pretending that the president controls the economy and the financial system? that's a ludicrous statement. they can have some effect, but they are not in control. congress has at least as much impact.
so benji, why do you argue it was bush's watch as opposed to nancy and harry's?
further, the "your watch" argument is totally flawed in another way. some policies take a long time to manifest. if i plant a time bomb in the foundation and sell you a a house, is it your fault that it goes off?
this is a particularly apt analogy for what happened to bush who inherited the dot bust, greenspan's disastrous monetary policy, and the CRA which caused much of the mortgage debacle.
hell, bush even backed a mccain sponsored bill to reign in freddie and fannie before the crisis hit and was shot down by frank, dodd, pelosi, and reid who responded instead by urging looser lending standards (and got them to disastrous effect)
do you really want to blame the firefighter who tried to put out the blaze as opposed to the arsonists who were tossing gasoline on it?
Morganovich,
I agree with you completely. I wouldn't hold Obama accountable if a meteor hit the earth "on his watch" but I do hold him accountable for his war on capitalism. Same token, I hold Bush accountable for spending too much on failed liberal programs, though nothing compared to Obama and the Democrats.
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"Much of the federal debt is "automatic stabilizers"--revenues go down, and unemployment etc goes up"...
"automatic stabilizers" sounds like, "entitlements" which is a word invented by politicos but one I believe should be forever stricken from the federal bureaucracies and the Halls of Congress...
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