From 67.5% to 58% in 3 Days
Intrade odds for the contract "The Democrats to control the House of Representatives after 2010 Congressional Elections."
CARPE DIEM
Professor Mark J. Perry's Blog for Economics and Finance
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
About Me
- Name: Mark J. Perry
- Location: Washington, D.C., United States
Dr. Mark J. Perry is a professor of economics and finance in the School of Management at the Flint campus of the University of Michigan. Perry holds two graduate degrees in economics (M.A. and Ph.D.) from George Mason University near Washington, D.C. In addition, he holds an MBA degree in finance from the Curtis L. Carlson School of Management at the University of Minnesota. In addition to a faculty appointment at the University of Michigan-Flint, Perry is also a visiting scholar at The American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C.
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4 Comments:
The trend is your friend!
Anonymous said...
Wow, when you consider the screwy y axis you chose, they moved from 68% probability to 61% probability.
You have a future in propaganda.
Oh that screwy y axis. I mean it uses numbers in the same numerical order as their values. Who does that?
By the way, go to intrade.com > politics > 2010 midterms.
Select House.dem.2010 > Advanced Graphing
Set the time period to custom and it will default to 14 days.
Then hit Update Chart and report back with what the chart looks like.
I am truly surprised it is still showing a number this high. Democrats won the 2008 congressional elections by 9% nationwide. This was good for a 40 seat margin in the House. Currently, the Republicans lead the Rasmussen generic ballot by 9% which should be good for a ~40 seat margin. With an 18% point swing since election day 2008, if the trend continues, Republicans will win 2010 by ~20%. This would give them a pick-up comparable to 1894 when the Democrats lost 125 seats in the House of Representatives.
If you think a 29% swing in Congressional vote is unrealistic, consider the following election shifts:
Virginia. Obama carried VA by 6% on election day 2008. McDonnell won the VA governors race in Nov 2009 by 17% for a swing of 23%.
Massachusetts. Obama carried MA by 26%. Brown won the Senate race by 5%. This was a swing of 31%.
Final number: 0
This is the number of presidents since WW2 who have seen their job approval rating increase between their 1 year anniversary in office to the mid-term election.
And it's still way overvalued.
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