Wednesday, January 20, 2010

From 67.5% to 58% in 3 Days

Intrade odds for the contract "The Democrats to control the House of Representatives after 2010 Congressional Elections."

4 Comments:

At 1/20/2010 9:42 PM, Blogger W.E. Heasley said...

The trend is your friend!

 
At 1/21/2010 12:35 AM, Blogger OA said...

Anonymous said...

Wow, when you consider the screwy y axis you chose, they moved from 68% probability to 61% probability.

You have a future in propaganda.


Oh that screwy y axis. I mean it uses numbers in the same numerical order as their values. Who does that?

By the way, go to intrade.com > politics > 2010 midterms.

Select House.dem.2010 > Advanced Graphing

Set the time period to custom and it will default to 14 days.

Then hit Update Chart and report back with what the chart looks like.

 
At 1/21/2010 3:44 PM, Anonymous Junkyard_hawg1985 said...

I am truly surprised it is still showing a number this high. Democrats won the 2008 congressional elections by 9% nationwide. This was good for a 40 seat margin in the House. Currently, the Republicans lead the Rasmussen generic ballot by 9% which should be good for a ~40 seat margin. With an 18% point swing since election day 2008, if the trend continues, Republicans will win 2010 by ~20%. This would give them a pick-up comparable to 1894 when the Democrats lost 125 seats in the House of Representatives.

If you think a 29% swing in Congressional vote is unrealistic, consider the following election shifts:

Virginia. Obama carried VA by 6% on election day 2008. McDonnell won the VA governors race in Nov 2009 by 17% for a swing of 23%.

Massachusetts. Obama carried MA by 26%. Brown won the Senate race by 5%. This was a swing of 31%.

Final number: 0
This is the number of presidents since WW2 who have seen their job approval rating increase between their 1 year anniversary in office to the mid-term election.

 
At 1/22/2010 12:07 AM, Blogger OBloodyHell said...

And it's still way overvalued.

 

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