Thursday, November 19, 2009

Leading Indicators Rise for 7th Month to 2-Yr. High

The Leading Economic Index (LEI) increased for the 7th straight month to 103.8, the highest level since the fall of 2007, and the first time in more than five years of 7-consecutive monthly increases (since early 2004).

Details:

Six of the ten indicators that make up The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. increased in October. The positive contributors – beginning with the largest positive contributor – were the interest rate spread, average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted), stock prices, average weekly manufacturing hours, real money supply and manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials. The negative contributors – beginning with the largest negative contributor – were index of consumer expectations, building permits, index of supplier deliveries (vendor performance), and manufacturers’ new orders for nondefense capital goods.

6 Comments:

At 11/19/2009 11:12 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Wouldn't a first derivative chart be more informative?

 
At 11/19/2009 3:42 PM, Anonymous American Delight said...

But does a short- to mid-term expansion preclude a double-dip afterwards?

 
At 11/19/2009 4:28 PM, Anonymous Benny "Tell It LIke It Is Man" Cole said...

Die recession, die, die, die!

Double-dip? Why? Money supply loose, some fiscal stimulus going on. Global recovery underway, especially in Asia.

The "double-dip" crowd strikes as the same crowd who said the recession would be a depression.

Sometimes, you just have to tolerate good news.

I see another 20-year global boom in front of us.

 
At 11/19/2009 9:52 PM, Blogger bobble said...

yields on 3 month t-bills just went negative. that's odd, what with the economy seemingly improving . . .

 
At 11/19/2009 10:23 PM, Anonymous American Delight said...

Benny, I hope you and Dr. Perry are right. But even perma-bull Larry Kudlow has been making some bearish comments the last few days.

I just can't get over the feeling that we're setting ourselves up for another bubble. Our culture seems addicted to extending credit (cheap loans) to people who just don't deserve it & won't ever pay it back.

 
At 11/20/2009 5:21 AM, Blogger juandos said...

"just can't get over the feeling that we're setting ourselves up for another bubble"...

Well American Delight you're not alone in feeling like that...

Consider the following by Joe Weisenthal over at the Business Insider: SocGen: Prepare Yourself For The Worst Case Scenario!

 

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