Professor Mark J. Perry's Blog for Economics and Finance
The MSCI World Stock Market Index has registered gains in 7 out of the last 9 trading days, and closed today at 1175.40, the highest close since October 1, 2008, more than a year ago (see chart above). The World Index has risen 27.7% since the first of the year, and by more 70% from the early March bottom. Welcome to the Worldwide Bull Market Rally of 2009.
Dr. Mark J. Perry is a professor of economics and finance in the School of Management at the Flint campus of the University of Michigan. Perry holds two graduate degrees in economics (M.A. and Ph.D.) from George Mason University near Washington, D.C. In addition, he holds an MBA degree in finance from the Curtis L. Carlson School of Management at the University of Minnesota. In addition to a faculty appointment at the University of Michigan-Flint, Perry is also a visiting scholar at The American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C.
11 Comments:
welcome back to the bubble. the fed is already far behind the curve on asset prices and our unprecedentedly loose monetary policy is forcing others to stay much too loose as well or suffer massive inflows of capital.
this has all led to the mother of all carry trades using the dollar as funding.
not saying it's over yet, but keep your eye on the dollar. when it starts to rally or when we finally raise rates, you are going to see a synchronized collapse in global asset prices.
i'm not usually a big fan of nouriel, but he's called this one correctly.
Quite amazing how much the US economy is still luke warm even after this incredible run up in the markets and in commodities. Companies should be able to hire employees again but they aren't.
Yes, it's been great and a lesson to those who didn't know some of the greatest Bull/Bear ralleys have taken place during bad economic times even as unemployment was rising.
Nouriel is a good economist who was right about the asset bubble and its impact on US. But he should stay away from making short term market perdictions. He got it wrong -not right. At DJIA 8,000 he said the market was still overvalued by 20%-25%...that was 2,400 points wrong.
morganovich - what planet are you on???
Roubini has been dead wrong on just about everything all this year.
Nouriel Roubini Was Wrong, Again, and Again and Again...
johnson-
i'm on planet "learn to read". you should check it out.
as i said:
"i'm not usually a big fan of nouriel, but he's called this one correctly."
then, you come back with piles of things he said in the past?
sounds like you fail reading comprehension.
i also note:
this morning, UUP up, euro down, markets off.
looks just like the back half of october when the same trends held until the fomc meeting made it clear rates weren't going up.
watch and learn grasshoppers.
i do do this for a living.
if you don't understand carry trades, you need to. this market will make no sense to you otherwise.
here's the argument laid out:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9a5b3216-c70b-11de-bb6f-00144feab49a.html
whatever his past calls, and as i say, i'm not a huge fan, he's right on this.
Yes, the world is enjoying a bull market rally which makes it difficult to find bargains. I think I have found the economy where investible funds could enjoy huge gains. You don't have to worry about currency exchange because since Feb. 2009 the U.S. dollar has been the main exchange currency.
"In a country with no debt, only assets, people and companies are under geared. With the ultra cautious lending policies of the banks, there is huge opportunity for foreign investors in the credit purveying industry."
The exchange homepage says "SORRY this website is undergoing maintenance work". I am reasonably sure that www.zse.co.zw will be up and running soon to catch the bargains of a lifetime.
Die recession, die, die, die!
I think we are on the cusp of another 20-year global boom led by Asia.
There is no stopping Asia. They have a good work ethic, pro-business governments, quickly adapt new technologies.
Technical information girdles the global instantly now. With R&D shops globally established, technical solutions will be plentiful.
The Big Q is will the US participate in the global boom? Not sure.
We are wallowing in a permanent military mobilization and a gigantic, embedded system of rural subsidy outlays. We are de-industrializing.
The VA, Department of Defense and Department of Agriculture eat up more than one-half of federal income taxes (not payroll taxes--those are earmarked for
Yet Amerrican voetrs want tax cuts--but are trained never to investigate rural subsidies, and regard permanent military mobilization as normal.
May not be a bright future for the USA. Time will tell. entitlement progarms, such as Social Security).
morganovich said...
not saying it's over yet, but keep your eye on the dollar. when it starts to rally or when we finally raise rates, you are going to see a synchronized collapse in global asset prices.
Interesting. I hadn't thought it though but I've assumed that an interest rate rise would be precipitated by an exodus from Treasuries. Or more likely a reluctance of buyers to roll over their expiring debt or buy the huge new issuances.
But I assumed that money would go back home or into riskier markets and out of the dollar. On the short end though, a rate rise would mean the Fed is comfortable about a recovery (or tapped out) and lots of dollars will return home and other money come in. Hmm, have to have a long think about this.
From the limited time I have seen Noriel's interviews, I think his biggest problem is he has no opinion on what the market price should be. So he makes directional calls, not realizing that say, the March lows were just too low. And perhaps when he finally flips the other way, the market may be too high.
morganovich
You say
"i do do this for a living."
Is that supposed to impress us? Are you some hot shot hedge fund manager? I doubt it - otherewise you wouldn't be trolling here.
Roubini is a hack economist whose famed lasted far too long - follow him at your peril!
j-
in fact, yes, i am a hedge fund manager. some of the folks on this board know me. that joke was for them, not for you...
i have no expectation or requirement that you be impressed by this. however, just as when a plumber speaks about plumbing i tend to listen to what he says, so might you too benefit. if not, best of luck to you...
your argument, however is the as silly as it is flawed. it's just one long ad hominem. nouriel has many flaws as a prognosticator, but that doesn't mean he's wrong all the time. he's certainly had some prescient predictions as well, no? your arguments say nothing about the facts of the matter, all that seems to matter to you is who the speaker was. is this how you make your investment decisions?
no one is smart enough to consistently time the stock market. no one is right all the time.
have you noticed that as the dollar has been falling since this morning the markets are recovering?
funny, it's almost as though there's a relationship there...
Post a Comment
<< Home