Professor Mark J. Perry's Blog for Economics and Finance
Last summer the odds for a federal government-run health insurance plan to be approved before the end of the year were around 50%, according to futures contracts traded on Intrade.com. Those odds have now fallen to a contract-low of only 2.2%. Odds for health care reform passing by March 2010 or June 2010 are higher, see details here.
Dr. Mark J. Perry is a professor of economics and finance in the School of Management at the Flint campus of the University of Michigan. Perry holds two graduate degrees in economics (M.A. and Ph.D.) from George Mason University near Washington, D.C. In addition, he holds an MBA degree in finance from the Curtis L. Carlson School of Management at the University of Minnesota. In addition to a faculty appointment at the University of Michigan-Flint, Perry is also a visiting scholar at The American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C.
8 Comments:
Well, let's hope they drop even more, like to say, zero! Obviously I'm not a fan of this legislation. I am a fan of changing some things, but good grief, this boondoggle will cost untold billions and won't make matters any better! Take a look at Time to Care by Dr. Norman Makous -- he makes the point that the miraculous scientific medial care today (though obviously life-saving!) has come at a price, and that's that we need to reinstate the personal relationship between doctor and patient. Lots of personal stories to back up his opinions. He thinks that having a primary care physician reduces tests and procedures (which are of course expensive), so you save money and control costs that way. Plus -- the patient gets a higher quality of care. And you know how people keep dismissing the idea that care will be rationed? It's already going on, and we're headed to more. Yikes.
Given the super majorities the democrats have in both houses of congress and memories of 1993-94, the dems will pass something for Obama to sign. What we truly need (meaningful tort reform, catastrophic protection, and assistance for the truly needy working poor) will not be what is passed. Whether the legislation that is passed occurs before or after Christmas does not matter.
Encouraging, but it would seem more related to the calendar than politics. There are two other contracts for 3/31/10 and 6/30/10 that have seen recent increases to around 20.
I will take then odds and bet on reform before Christmas. The president has wagered his domestic power on this legislation. Congress has invested tremendous resources this year on the proposition of "health reform".
The economy, to support any spending schemes by Congress, should have been the top priority of the President. This president is clueless on how real jobs are created and kept.
I keep seeing Intrade items posted here, but I never see Intrade's track record. My belief is that for medium-term political actions, Intrade's early predictions have low reliability. Late predictions have a herd effect: everyone jumps on the bandwagon. Are the odds of a healthcare financing bill in 2009 really only 1 in 50? With a 60 to 40 democrat majority in the Senate? I believe that some version of the bill will get out of the Senate by mid-December for rapid reconciliation with the House before the Christmas break.
I am still worried that congress will pass a bill in the senate this weekend and then they will pass some crap in the combined committee that Obama will jump at signing.
"I am still worried that congress will pass a bill in the senate this weekend..."...
Consider the following Steve from the Hill Blog: Coburn to force reading of health bill
Let's be clear about what the contract traded on intrade is.
It's a straight up government option - without triggers and not called a co-op.
That means that people who trade on intrade believe there's only a 2% chance of a plain vanilla government option passing by the end of December. The probability of some other path to government meat-grinder health care is not included in this market.
I'm all for reforming the idiotic, government hampered system we have now. None of the reforms I would support are in this bill. Of course, the health care bill has feck all to do with health care.
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