When Will The "Jobless Recovery" End and When Will the End of the Recession Be Official?
It’s almost certain now that the recession probably ended sometime this summer, and an expansion is now underway. The Wall Street Journal consensus of more than 50 professional economists is for 3% real GDP growth in the third quarter, and a 2.8% annual growth rate in 2010. With that kind of growth in real output, the recession might now be over, but a couple of important questions remain: 1) How long will the unemployment rate continue to rise, and 2) When will the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) officially declare that the recession has ended? History might help provide answers (see chart above).
Read my whole post here at The Enterprise Blog.