Saturday, May 16, 2009

20 Reasons the Recession is All But Over in the UK

THE INDEPENDENT -- Green shoots of recovery are thriving in the UK. Record high-street sales and optimistic economic forecasts show the only way is up for a Britain battered by the global slowdown. Here are 20 reasons why the recession is all but over.

#18. The FTSE 100 share index rose by 9.5% in April. The actuarial firm Watson Wyatt said share prices had continued to improve since the end of last month (see chart above).

8 Comments:

At 5/16/2009 10:05 PM, Blogger BxCapricorn said...

You know that there are some people who are going to move their LIFE SAVINGS back into stocks, only to watch them evaporate as short squeezes, treasury yields, and a confluence of other factors stop pushing the market higher. You know this, as you watch Treasury yields, short interest ratios, etc. and yet you also know that market P/E's cannot support this level.

http://www.bullandbearwise.com/SPEarningsChart.asp

Stop pushing the sheeple into a disaster waiting to happen.

 
At 5/17/2009 1:09 AM, Blogger bobble said...

the economist magazine offers an alternate view:
"The Bank of England has delivered a sombre warning. A swift return to rude economic health is highly unlikely after the financial and economic convulsions of the past two years. A prolonged convalescence is the best that can be expected."

 
At 5/17/2009 2:43 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

BxCapricorn:

A 120 P/E on the S&P? Really? You're stickin' to that are ya?

Might I suggest going over to scottgrannis.blogspot.com and checking out Mr. Grannis' April 9 piece entitled, "Equity Valuation." Using a number of different criteria, he does a fabulous job of explaining why he believes stocks aren't all that expensive.

And, no, the S&P's P/E is not - nor has it ever been anywhere near - 120. If it was, don't you think it might've been pointed out someplace other than some website nobody's ever heard of?

I tell ya, an unknown website puts out a junk chart and people take it as gospel. Talk about being a sheeple...

 
At 5/17/2009 6:57 AM, Blogger Bill said...

What's your point?

No recession because stock market is heading up?

So everything was just great in July of 2007 too right?

 
At 5/17/2009 1:51 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Yikes, the FTSE-100 is probably a worse index to use than the Dow or S&P 500 for the health of the UK economy, no exaggeration. Foreign miners such as Antofagasta and Kazakhmys have nowt to do with the British economy while the larger miners such as BHP, Xstrata, Rio Tinto, Anglo-American are all domiciled abroad. The FTSE-100 is stacked with global multi-nationals with very few firms reliant on Britain (Tesco and Centrica being notable but not particularly sizable exceptions).

The FTSE-250 would be a fairer comparator and would aid the argument.

 
At 5/17/2009 4:58 PM, Blogger BxCapricorn said...

It's not just a chart on some website. It's math, pure and simple. See for yourself.

http://www2.standardandpoors.com/portal/site/sp/en/us/page.topic/indices_500/2,3,2,2,0,0,0,0,0,1,1,0,0,0,0,0.html

...and then go to Robert Shiller's site and download his data. Even with his 10-year rolling average, it's way out of whack for an economy that is shrinking at 6% each quarter. As Bloomberg pointed out this weekend...

"The price-earnings ratio on the S&P 500 was about 60 at the end of last year, based on 2008 profits, according to data compiled by S&P. In prior bear-market lows, the measure sank to 6 or 7, Prechter said.

“That gives you a flavor for how much the market’s going to have to come down, or earnings will have to suddenly soar,” he said.

There are different measures of the price-to-earnings ratio. Yale University Professor Robert Shiller tallies the figure using 10 years of profits to smooth out short-term fluctuations. His current reading is about 15.7, near the historic average of 16.3 going back over the past 128 years, according to data on his Web site. Shiller’s P/E ratio got as low as 5.6 during the Great Depression."

I think you should go ALL IN, like this blog wants you to.

 
At 5/17/2009 5:19 PM, Blogger BxCapricorn said...

Check this out.

"A Portuguese website reports that authorities are investigating an attempted transfer of 50 billion dollars (36.6 billion euros) from JP Morgan Chase in what might where result would be the biggest fraud ever, rivaling the Ponzi scheme of Bernard Madoff."

Then read this...

"Former Miami Vice star Don Johnson is under investigation by German authorities after $8 billion US worth of credit notes, cheques and securities were found in the trunk of his car.

German customs officials found the documents crammed in a suitcase after stopping the 53-year-old actor when he crossed the Swiss border last November.

Johnson, who was traveling with three companions, was held up for several hours as authorities photocopied all the documents. No charges have been filed but American tax and custom officials have also been informed.

German authorities confirmed Tuesday that Johnson, whose last television series was Nash Bridges , is a suspect in a money-laundering ring.

Johnson told the New York Post that he was on his way to buy a car and that none of the documents belonged to him.

"They're all legitimate papers and stuff from a passenger that was in the car. It has nothing to do with me," he said."

End.

Is our World now completely out of control? He was on his way to buy a car? With $8B worth of US notes? What did those two stories mean? People, wealthy people, are nervous and trying to get their money out of banks and across borders (even using washed up actors as mules). Good luck, sheeple.

 
At 5/17/2009 5:43 PM, Blogger BxCapricorn said...

Oh, and here's another website that also points to exactly what I was talking about....perhaps you've heard of it.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/05/sp-500-earnings-decline-90/

Gulp...yeah, it's that bad. You'd know this if you maintained market spreadsheets instead of listening to people like Cramer and Dr. Perry.

 

Post a Comment

Links to this post:

Create a Link

<< Home