Friday, May 15, 2009

Philly Fed Survey: Positive Growth To Return in Q3

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve released its Second Quarter 2009 Survey of Professional Forecasters today, and the consensus forecasts for quarterly real GDP through 2010:Q2 are displayed above. The consensus forecast is for negative output growth to continue in the second quarter (-1.5%) of 2009 before turning positive in Q3 (.40%) and Q4 (1.7%), continuing into 2010 with growth of 2.2% and 2.9% in the first two quarters (see chart above, actual GDP through 2009:Q1, forecast GDP from 2009:Q2 to 2009:Q2).


At 5/15/2009 10:18 AM, Blogger Jeff Herron said...

How is GDP measured by these studies? The material at the link provided does not say.

How can GDP be expected to recover so well so quickly when the auto and housing industries, two of the biggest in terms of "domestic product" are forecasting negative growth for at least the next year (until mid-2010)?

At 5/15/2009 1:27 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Yes, because the Fed did a fantastic job predicting this recession. Remember, subprime was "contained". hahahahaha

At 5/15/2009 1:38 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Has anyone seen the an equivalent graph from one or more quarters ago? What kind of track record does Philly Fed Survey at forecasting economic growth, and how does their forecast drive positive economic coverage or vice versa?

At 5/15/2009 2:57 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

It is interesting to compare these GDP forecast to the GDP forecast used by the White House in the Budget Projections. We are going to have even larger deficits based on these projections.

At 5/16/2009 6:14 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Why "negative growth"?

Shouldn't one say "contraction" or "shrinkage""

I don't know how you can use the word "growth" to describe something getting smaller.


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