Unemployment Claims and the End of Recessions
James Hamilton (4/9/2009): If subsequent data confirm that the 4-week average of initial claims did indeed reach its peak in the number reported April 2, and if Robert Gordon's pattern holds up, the recovery that many of us had assumed would be quarters or perhaps even years away may instead have started by June.
James Hamilton (4/16/2009): If April 4 ultimately proves to be the peak for the entire year, and if this recession behaves like each of the previous 6 recessions, we could expect the NBER eventually to declare that the economic recovery began within 6 weeks of today.
James Hamilton (4/16/2009): If April 4 ultimately proves to be the peak for the entire year, and if this recession behaves like each of the previous 6 recessions, we could expect the NBER eventually to declare that the economic recovery began within 6 weeks of today.
6 Comments:
If this is accurate, why wasn't the peak (or bottom, however you think of it) called when claims dropped between 12/08 and 1/09?
Because it continued to go up Thomas. For it to be a peak it must continue to go down from that point.
ExtremeHobo,
At the time, you couldn't have known that. He's calling it here based on one month's decline. Why was it not called back in January after a single month's decline?
Because the decline from December to January is usually seasonal. Weird and unpredictable employment patterns occur right after the holiday season.
This drop is more significant. However, today's number was not very encouraging.
You make a good point. I hadn't considered that.
Also he is not "calling it." There is a question mark after peak. As in "is this a peak?"
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