Did Jobless Claims Peak in Early April?
James Hamilton (4/9/2009): If subsequent data confirm that the 4-week average of initial claims did indeed reach its peak in the number reported April 2, and if Robert Gordon's pattern holds up, the recovery that many of us had assumed would be quarters or perhaps even years away may instead have started by June.
James Hamilton (4/16/2009): If April 4 ultimately proves to be the peak for the entire year, and if this recession behaves like each of the previous 6 recessions, we could expect the NBER eventually to declare that the economic recovery began within 6 weeks of today.
CNN -- "The past few weeks' claims data are beginning to look increasingly like a peak," wrote Ian Shepherdson, economist at High Frequency Economics, in a research note.
Note: The chart above is based on jobless claims data through today's release, which reported the third consecutive monthly decline in the 4-week moving average.
4 Comments:
If I recall correctly, unemployment is a lagging economic indicator of a recession. So when unemployment starts to drop, the recession is over.
If you think thats a peak, wait for the reorg/Bankruptcies & layoffs from the 3 biggest US employers. aka Automakers.
I predict that if this recession officially ends, there will be a second one right behind it, in 6 months, lasting 3-5 years. Hyperdrive Guvmnt Spending and Taxing will be the cause.
TeaParty will become a household name.
To Cromagnum:
Tomorrow is May Day, expect the anti-Tea Party crowd to hold a lot of rallies then.
I wouldn't get overly excited about jobless claims peaking...
There are clueless bumblers in the administration that might influence certain sectors...
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