8 States With Lowest January Jobless Rates
What do the 8 states with the lowest January unemployment rates (see chart above, data here) have in common?Find out here, check the map.
CARPE DIEM
Professor Mark J. Perry's Blog for Economics and Finance
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
What do the 8 states with the lowest January unemployment rates (see chart above, data here) have in common?Find out here, check the map.
About Me
- Name: Mark J. Perry
- Location: Washington, D.C., United States
Dr. Mark J. Perry is a professor of economics and finance in the School of Management at the Flint campus of the University of Michigan. Perry holds two graduate degrees in economics (M.A. and Ph.D.) from George Mason University near Washington, D.C. In addition, he holds an MBA degree in finance from the Curtis L. Carlson School of Management at the University of Minnesota. In addition to a faculty appointment at the University of Michigan-Flint, Perry is also a visiting scholar at The American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C.
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40 Comments:
Oh my... The Unions just got served!
i understand your point and completely agree with it, but how do you explain south carolina's rate being the closest to michigan's rate? north carolina is hurting as well.
What do the 8 states with the lowest January unemployment rates (data here) have in common?
Nobody lives there.
I know you want the answer to be unions. However, I have a better question. Why do people stay where there is no work? Do states with high unemployment rates have better safety social nets? Michigan could lower its unemployment rate to 0% without creating one new job if all the unemployed people left the state!
What do the 8 states with the lowest January unemployment rates (data here) have in common?
Below average median household income.
Shall I continue with the conflation until Stan Greer reappears?
Except for Louisiana, they're all low in "racial diversity." (I know Iowa and Nebraska have a lot of "undocumented" Hispanics, but I don't know how often they apply to receive unemployment benefits or what percentage gets counted in the official unemployment rate.)
I'm thinking along the lines of Walt G.--Detroit has a lot of black residents because that's where the jobs were in the early 20th century. People moved from the South, where they couldn't get work, to take those jobs. But in 2009, Michigan will pay them to live and not work in Detroit, where their friends and families are. They have no motivation to move to North Dakota, away from everyone they know, where they will have to work to keep the roof over their head.
(They also have a low cost of living, and low business tax rates...)
Anon 11.37-unemployment is a percentage. Population as a raw number is irrelevant.
Anon 12.09-figure cost of living. A dollar in Nebraska will go a hell of a lot further than a dollar in California.
Fail.
I did an informal survey of 30 of my vocational education students. I found 19 completely unemployed and 4 working part time who wanted to work full time, but only 2 who planned to leave Michigan to find work. I wonder if this is the same ratio as unemployed workers statewide.
HeatherRadish - So you are attributing these statistics to lazy black people?
The point attempting to be made here does not necesarilly correlate with the data provided to proove the point.
Now that we got the anti-union BS out of the way, lets do some real economic analysis. What's the real reason these states have the lowest unemployment? They are all heavily concentrated with commodity related businesses which have only recently started to feel the pain of the recession. Check back in 12 months. Their unemployment rates will catch up with the rest of the country.
http://tinyurl.com/bshdqj
http://tinyurl.com/cl854w
Rob Godby, chair of the economics and finance department at the University of Wyoming, says that his state has the "least diverse economy in the country." Because Wyoming leans so heavily on coal, natural gas, and oil production, it can take a while for an economic slump to hit the state, even as it rattles the rest of the country. "We're kind of at the tail end of the distribution system. We're the provider of raw materials, not finished goods," says Tom Gallagher, manager of research and planning at the state's Department of Employment. "Eventually demand is going to slow down and prices will slip, but people write contracts for drilling that are for a year, and other contracts for exploration that span a given time period and are not immediately cancelled."
Machiavelli999 - What commodity does LA produce? Tabasco is pretty tasty but i don't think their economy hinges around it.
Sam,
Correct me if I am wrong, but I think LA produces most of our domestic oil. I know Marathon has a giant refinery there and is planning on adding quite a bit to the size (capacity) of that refinery next year.
Anon 11.37-unemployment is a percentage. Population as a raw number is irrelevant.
It's as irrelevant as Ole Miss, Sin City and the Carolinas. Those 4 right to work states have a greater population than Perry's 8 conflation states but rank in the top quintile (>8.7%) on the unemployment scale. Wanna wager that the Carolinas go 10%+ unemployment next month? Georgia and Florida (now that's a population metric that matters) are closing fast.
So why don't you do the obvious thing. Compute the weighted unemployment rate in the right to work states and report back. On second thought, don't bother. It will make Carpe Diem look foolish.
A dollar in Nebraska will go a hell of a lot further than a dollar in California.
I'd rather live with a broke venture capitalist in California than a broke ethanol farmer in Nebraska. Now I'm not saying that the aggie-states and the petro-states will get blasted like they did in the mid-1980s, but it will be close.
When you are ready to put away your pea-shooter, let me know. I'll dust off the bazooka.
This mostly a blue and purple state recession. The red states are just being dragged down by the insanity and stupidity of the American left.
Wow! Anonymous doesn't understand the meaning of percentage.
So why don't you do the obvious thing. Compute the weighted unemployment rate in the right to work states and report back.
Why don't you and link us to it?
anon 2:04 pm said:
You can't be serious with this comment. That is absurd. Wrap your head around working together with your fellow Americans to get us out of this mess. It is people such as yourself that hurt this country more than help it.
Fellow Americans? You can't be serious with that comment. They won't move, they do not want industry, they need a union shop to protect them, they like being on the dole and they continue to vote in office losers like Pelosi, Levin, Kennedy, Frank, Dodd, and all of the other fellow travelers who tax the productive in order to keep them on the dole and keep their vote.
Basically, it is people like the above who are ruining this country.
They are all heavily concentrated with commodity related businesses which have only recently started to feel the pain of the recession. Check back in 12 months. Their unemployment rates will catch up with the rest of the country.
More correctly, they have only recently started to feel the pain of Barak Obama and the Democrats incompetence. Indeed, commodity dependent states are in the Democrat party crosshairs - and the pain will be widely shared:
President Obama is shelving a plan announced in the final days of the Bush administration to open much of the U.S. coast to oil drilling, including 130 million acres off California's coast from Mendocino to San Diego.
Link
... members of Congress introduced a bill to permanently prohibit drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge:
[...]
"Let's not forget: Only six months ago, oil was selling for nearly $150 per barrel, while Americans were paying $4 a gallon and more for gasoline. And today, there is potential for prices to rebound as OPEC asserts its market power, and as Russia is disrupting needed natural gas to Europe , for the second time in three years.
* Oil from ANWR represents a huge, secure domestic supply that could help satisfy U.S. demand for more than 25 years.
* ANWR development would create hundreds of thousands of good American jobs, positively affecting every state by providing a safe energy supply and generating demand for goods and services.
Link
Utah oil and gas leases cancelled.
And let's not forget the Democrats job killing, energy bill raising "Cap and Trade" scheme:
The potential costs to America from cap-and-trade policies are enormous. The Department of Energy estimates that S. 2191, the Warner-Lieberman cap-and-trade proposal, will increase the cost of coal for power generation by between 161% and 413%. DOE estimates GDP losses (see chart) over the 21-year period they forecast, at between $444 billion and $1.308 trillion, with particular damage to the manufacturing sector. (This gives some hope that organized labor will, in a rare occurrence, oppose Democratic leaders on this issue.) Winegarden estimates that this bill could increase unemployment by 2.7% or about 4 million jobs. In fact, companies are already preparing to avoid increased level and volatility of American energy prices by setting up factories and partnerships in countries which won’t be subject to cap-and-trade restrictions…proving with real-world behavior of producers that no carbon-limiting regulation can succeed if it is not universal.
Link
Don't like that source? Let them tell you in their own words: Video
Gee, I wonder who will be hardest hit with all this Democrat love:
President Barack Obama's proposed cap-and-trade system on greenhouse gas emissions is a giant economic dagger aimed at the nation's heartland -- particularly Michigan. It is a multibillion-dollar tax hike on everything that Michigan does, including making things, driving cars and burning coal.
The carbon tax will be paid by energy companies, manufacturers and public utilities, who will pass the cost on to their consumers. Michigan will be especially targeted. It gets 60 percent of its electric power from coal plants, and the state's economy is still reliant on heavy manufacturing such as car and truck assembly and auto parts production.
Michigan will lose as carbon tax money is shifted to states with a greater presence of high-tech and service businesses.
Link
You're right about one thing, the pain has just begun!
That carbon tax is gonna be BRUTAL. Dont worry though, America will become "cleaner" while we still buy stuff made in dirty ol' China.
Go to work, Ralph.
"Do states with high unemployment rates have better safety social nets? Michigan could lower its unemployment rate to 0% without creating one new job if all the unemployed people left the state!"...
No, that experiment was already a proven failure when those losers in New Orleans were bussed to other states and give a FEMA credit card... All that happened there is they took their crime with them to spread it arround...
"Below average median household income"...
Two-Year-Average Median Household Income by State: 2004-2006
Yeah, go ahead and take a look at that little detail...
"The point attempting to be made here does not necesarilly correlate with the data provided to proove the point"...
YOU of course of something credible to back up that statement, right?
"Because Wyoming leans so heavily on coal, natural gas, and oil production"...
LOL! Obama will STUTTER his way into screwing that whole scene up...
"I know Marathon has a giant refinery there and is planning on adding quite a bit to the size (capacity) of that refinery next year"...
Hmmm, that's still going through, eh?
I know the Detroit refinery expansion project is moving along as is the Garyville, La refinery expansion... I thought the Los Angeles project was in limbo right now...
"I'd rather live with a broke venture capitalist in California than a broke ethanol farmer in Nebraska"...
I'd rather you stay in California myself...
How much it costs to live in each state
"YOU of course of something credible to back up that statement, right?"
Sure, those states with the lowest jobless rate also have the least amount of cellular phone coverage. So can we safely assume that if you don't have cell phone coverage you are less likely to have a job? Of course not, because that would be idiotic. The same principle implies to the OP. The data provided to proove the theory is independant of the theory itself. It doesn not necessarily correlate with the theory attempting to be proven.
"The data provided to proove the theory is independant of the theory itself. It doesn not necessarily correlate with the theory attempting to be proven"...
Hmmm, I'm betting the whites of YOUR eyes are actually brown...
"Hmmm, I'm betting the whites of YOUR eyes are actually brown..."
I am not even sure what that means.
"I am not even sure what that means"...
I'm not surprised
What do the 8 states with the lowest January unemployment rates (data here) have in common?
Low levels of educational attainment represented by bachelor degrees.
China February Auto Sales Rise 25% After Tax Cuts
March 10 (Bloomberg) -- China vehicle sales surged 25 percent in February, the first gain in four months, after the government cut taxes on some models, helping the country extend its lead as the world’s largest auto market this year.
Sales of passenger cars, buses and trucks climbed to 827,600, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said today in Beijing. The tally in the first two months rose 2.7 percent to 1.56 million, compared with a 39 percent decline to 1.35 million in the U.S.
China has halved retail taxes on small cars ....
Link
I guess their communists are smarter than our communists.
"Low levels of educational attainment represented by bachelor degrees"...
Got a link for that info?
"China has halved retail taxes on small cars and drawn up plans to give out vehicle subsidies in rural areas to revive demand after auto sales rose at the slowest pace in a decade last year. Combined with the country’s wider 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) economic stimulus package, the policies have caused General Motors Corp. to roughly double its forecast for China’s nationwide auto market growth this year"...
Interesting anon @ 4:45 PM...
Still its rather amazing just how many cars were sold here in the US: American Auto Sales Tumbled In 2008
General Motors reported total 2008 U.S. sales of 2.98 million, its lowest total since 1959...
For the year, Ford sales were off 21 percent to 1.98 million...
Honda Motor also saw December sales drop more than 35 percent. Sales fell 8 percent for the year to 1.43 million vehicles...
"What is fly over country? Alex"
Some may say, "Nobody lives there LOL" and they are almost onto something. There are few people who live in those states and there are few people who want to live there. Those few people get paid less, because they can live on less, because they want less. They aren't "chasing the American dream" they are living it.
Apparently money, degrees, and diversity matter more than a lot of things.
You all are the lesser sons of greater sires. Wanting far beyond need, crying of poverty when you have enough to eat.
It isn't a blue problem, or a purple problem. It is an education problem. It is an entitlement problem. I go to school where over a quarter of my classmates are No Worker Left Behind.
If you fail, I will not insult you. If you can't find a job I will not insult you. I will insult you if you're greedy hypocrites. I'm too liberal; I'm a conservative.
"China February Auto Sales Rise 25% After Tax Cuts
March 10 (Bloomberg) -- China vehicle sales surged 25 percent in February, the first gain in four months, after the government cut taxes on some models, helping the country extend its lead as the world’s largest auto market this year.
Sales of passenger cars, buses and trucks climbed to 827,600, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said today in Beijing. The tally in the first two months rose 2.7 percent to 1.56 million, compared with a 39 percent decline to 1.35 million in the U.S.
China has halved retail taxes on small cars ....
I guess their communists are smarter than our communists."
Obviously you've never been to China. China cut taxes on smaller cars (think Asian) while taxes on larger vehicles (think American) remain punitive. The taxes though (on any vehicle) are at rates that would have any American screaming bloody murder. China's roads are VERY congested and VERY few people own vehicles. It is almost impossible for a westerner to understand the scale of China if you've never seen it. If they actually survive the coming years without a violent revolution (and can suckup the excess capacity built during the boom), I'd say investing in companies that build roads in China is probably a good bet.
However you won't live long in China breathing the filthiest air on the planet. Again a westerner cannot imagine it until you breathe it with your own lungs.
Dr. Perry,
I'd bet low energy costs and relatively low taxes on businesses are part of the explanation as well. I found that to be the case last year when comparing the unemployment rates in Utah and Rhode Island, "A Tale of Two States: Utah Versus Rhode Island".
What do the 8 states with the lowest January unemployment rates (data here) have in common?
The highest federal spending per dollar of federal tax collected.
Obviously you've never been to China.
Actually, I have. And your right, I wouldn't want to live there. But I think you're selling our commies short. They have big plans. And with almost complete control of the media, culture and academia, given enough time, I'm confident that they'll reduce our standard of living to that of the Chinese.
HOPE and CHANGE, comrade.
> Nobody lives there.
Oh, YES, there's reasoning for you....
A per capita RATE is affected by the number of PEOPLE involved.
You just can't stop showing what a complete halfwit moron you are, can you???
:-/
.
> And let's not forget the Democrats job killing, energy bill raising "Cap and Trade" scheme:
Anon, I think we all need to grasp that one of the chief "selling points" of this "Cap and Trade" crap is the income the fed gets from it.
It's a tax, pure and simple, on energy use, and will uniformly jack up expenses for everything across the board, making us all the poorer as a result, while the largesse generated by its hidden taxes assists the Dems in going on the wildest spending spree ever known to humanity, much of it designed to buy votes and ensure support.
=====
So, by all means -- let's call it by what it is:
CAP AND SPEND.
.
> and VERY few people own vehicles.
Yes, and a million and a half more than owned them three months ago...
In China, like India, "very few" means "one freakin' hell of a lot" in Anglospeak.
That taste in your mouth? Either shoe leather or athletes foot.
I'll let you figure out which for yourself...
.
""I am not even sure what that means"...
I'm not surprised"
Yeah, sorry I am not 8,000 years old. I don't call my couch a Davenport either. Silly me.
"Silly me"...
No, it more like 'ignorant'...
Take heart though, your condition need not be chronic: Did you know?...
This is a lesson I'm learning everyday...
You just got to want to take the time do open your mind...
How about the unemployment rate being significantly correlated with state population? Perhaps it's correlated with states with large rural areas? How about states with high % of unemployment have the hardest hit industries?
Correlation != causation.
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