I suggest you watch an index that will tell you when the world economies are starting to perk up and when trade conditions are really starting to ease. It's called the Baltic Dry Index.
Essentially the Baltic Dry tracks the average daily price for shipping dry bulk like coal, iron ore, wheat and soybeans. There are three things that make it such a good leading indicator. One, the index looks at raw materials, so it captures activity at the very beginning of the production process. Two, it looks at ocean shipping, so it reveals what's happening to international trade -- the critical driver of global growth. And, three, the shipping business depends heavily on credit, so the Baltic Dry indicates whether credit is tight or loose.
MP: The Baltic Dry Index has increased for the last 8 days in a row, to a 5-month high of 2298 yesterday, see chart above.