Sunday, October 26, 2008

Without AZ, CA, FL and NV, Foreclosures Dropped in the Third Quarter By -2.45% Vs. Second Quarter

According to RealtyTrac, foreclosure filings were reported on 765,558 U.S. properties during the third quarter of 2008, up by +3.49% from the second quarter (739,741 foreclosures). Foreclosures were heavily concentrated in Arizona (12,982), California (69,548), Florida (47,956) and Nevada (13,022), and those four states accounted for 19.4% of the total (143,508 out of 765,558).

Update: If you analyze the raw data presented by RealtyTrac, and take out those four states (AZ, CA, FL and NV), foreclosures in the rest of the country actually declined by -2.45% in the third quarter 2008 to 356,824, from 365,801 in the second quarter 2008. (Note: This 2.45% decline was not reported by RealtyTrac, it required a separate analysis and caclulation.)


At 10/27/2008 4:10 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Are you not conflating the September 2008 monthly data in paragraph 1 with the third quarter data in paragraph 2?

In any event, third quarter foreclosures in the other 46 states did decline by 2.5% sequentially.

Some caveats to the foreclosure improvements:

1.If LIBOR continues to remain elevated, it is likely that additional foreclosures will result on any initial adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) resets and subsequent contractual resets.

2. The ALT-A and option ARM recasts begin to ramp up in the second quarter next year.

At 10/27/2008 8:31 AM, Blogger Mark J. Perry said...

Anonymous: The -2.45% decline was NOT reported by RealtyTrac, it required a calculation using the data provided in its report. I had to calculate it myself, after manually removing AZ, CA, FL and NV.

At 10/27/2008 10:35 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

decline was NOT reported by RealtyTrac

Yep. I did the manual calc as well.

At 10/28/2008 4:17 AM, Blogger OBloodyHell said...


In regard to your questions, I've seen adverts on TV for a company which is offering to refinance 30yr mortgages with a much lower fixed rate based on FHA financing, which, "in at least some cases, may not involve your credit rating"

Assuming this isn't some complete scam (I haven't actually done ANYTHING to look into it, I've just seen the commercial), I'm assuming it may offer a solution to those stupid enough to accept a highly-variable loan rate.

Pretty much depends on whether the public is stupid enough to vote for Obama.

If they vote for McCain, the economy should pick back up. It may still be recessionary then, but it should be past the bottom at least, with a number of positive indicators.

If they vote for Obama, expect it to continue downward.

At 10/28/2008 9:30 AM, Blogger John Thacker said...


I would caution that several states passed effective foreclosure moratoriums that could affect the Q3 numbers compared to Q2. The larger point that you make has merit, however.

While obviously there are many things going on, and there are separate reasons for why a housing bubble collapse would lead to such a financial crisis, it's disappointing to me that the media has been so unwilling to discuss the role of land-use restrictions in feeding the bubble and eventual crash. Krugman discussed it back in 2005; it's obviously not some crazy "right-wing" thing to talk about the influence of zoning and other land restrictions.


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