Monday, May 05, 2008

Recession Odds: From 70% to 25% in 18 Days

Based on futures trading on Intrade.com (see chart above, click to enlarge) for the most "predicted recession in U.S. history that will never come to pass" (First Trust Advisors).

4 Comments:

At 5/06/2008 11:06 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Futures trading isn't exactly a reliable gauge of the U.S. economy (or much else).

 
At 5/06/2008 4:20 PM, Blogger sbvor said...

"Futures trading isn't exactly a reliable gauge of the U.S. economy (or much else)."

If you study the relevant data, you may better understand why the smart money is betting (big time) against a recession:

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The Recession of 2008 That Wasn’t?
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At 5/06/2008 6:13 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

sbvor,

Completely agree that the "relevant data" seem to indicate that there will not be a recession. Just making a distinction between "betting" and "relevant data".

There seems to have been a great deal of attention paid to surveys, futures and opinions on this entire apocalyptic coverage of the recession of 2008 while any positive hard data has been summarily dismissed.

 
At 5/06/2008 6:54 PM, Blogger sbvor said...

Anonymous,

At least the futures traders are putting their money where their mouth is.

I tend to trust what markets tell me. And, that is why I find this one instructive (even if not definitive).

 

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