Recession Odds: From 70% to 25% in 18 Days
Based on futures trading on Intrade.com (see chart above, click to enlarge) for the most "predicted recession in U.S. history that will never come to pass" (First Trust Advisors).CARPE DIEM
Professor Mark J. Perry's Blog for Economics and Finance
Monday, May 05, 2008
Based on futures trading on Intrade.com (see chart above, click to enlarge) for the most "predicted recession in U.S. history that will never come to pass" (First Trust Advisors).About Me
- Name: Mark J. Perry
- Location: Washington, D.C., United States
Dr. Mark J. Perry is a professor of economics and finance in the School of Management at the Flint campus of the University of Michigan. Perry holds two graduate degrees in economics (M.A. and Ph.D.) from George Mason University near Washington, D.C. In addition, he holds an MBA degree in finance from the Curtis L. Carlson School of Management at the University of Minnesota. In addition to a faculty appointment at the University of Michigan-Flint, Perry is also a visiting scholar at The American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C.
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4 Comments:
Futures trading isn't exactly a reliable gauge of the U.S. economy (or much else).
"Futures trading isn't exactly a reliable gauge of the U.S. economy (or much else)."
If you study the relevant data, you may better understand why the smart money is betting (big time) against a recession:
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The Recession of 2008 That Wasn’t?
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sbvor,
Completely agree that the "relevant data" seem to indicate that there will not be a recession. Just making a distinction between "betting" and "relevant data".
There seems to have been a great deal of attention paid to surveys, futures and opinions on this entire apocalyptic coverage of the recession of 2008 while any positive hard data has been summarily dismissed.
Anonymous,
At least the futures traders are putting their money where their mouth is.
I tend to trust what markets tell me. And, that is why I find this one instructive (even if not definitive).
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