Monday, August 17, 2009

From 45% to 15% in 10 Days: Healthcare Odds

Ten days ago there was a 45% chance of a government health care plan passing by December 2009, according to contracts trading on Intrade. Now those odds have fallen to 15% (see chart above).

Originally posted at Carpe Diem.


At 8/17/2009 1:18 PM, Blogger KO said...

Depending how they define "government health care plan" it could be a very different bet.

Chances of something close to what's on the table passing have dropped a lot, but I wouldn't bet on nothing being passing.

At 8/17/2009 8:30 PM, Blogger QT said...


Agree that some version will likely pass. It is unlikely that the Dems will nail their own wunderkind.

Unfortunately, the CBO keeps exposing that Obama's savings claims don't add up

At 8/28/2009 6:35 AM, Blogger John B. Chilton said...

There was a high volume the day of the low odds. The price is now back up to 32. As other commenters say, I do wonder if Dems will cut off their now to spite their face. One thing Kennedy learned by error is that sometimes you have to take what you can get. And there is now the sentiment to have something passed called the Kennedy bill. I doubt, though, that newly elected Dems will vote for something that will risk their reelection. So I see a bill before the end of the year which is very watered down. And perhaps an admission by Obama that the number of Americans uninsured because of low income is closer to 10 million rather than 50 million.


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