From 45% to 15% in 10 Days: Healthcare Odds
Ten days ago there was a 45% chance of a government health care plan passing by December 2009, according to contracts trading on Intrade. Now those odds have fallen to 15% (see chart above).CARPE DIEM
Professor Mark J. Perry's Blog for Economics and Finance
Monday, August 17, 2009
Ten days ago there was a 45% chance of a government health care plan passing by December 2009, according to contracts trading on Intrade. Now those odds have fallen to 15% (see chart above).About Me
- Name: Mark J. Perry
- Location: Washington, D.C., United States
Dr. Mark J. Perry is a professor of economics and finance in the School of Management at the Flint campus of the University of Michigan. Perry holds two graduate degrees in economics (M.A. and Ph.D.) from George Mason University near Washington, D.C. In addition, he holds an MBA degree in finance from the Curtis L. Carlson School of Management at the University of Minnesota. In addition to a faculty appointment at the University of Michigan-Flint, Perry is also a visiting scholar at The American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C.
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3 Comments:
Depending how they define "government health care plan" it could be a very different bet.
Chances of something close to what's on the table passing have dropped a lot, but I wouldn't bet on nothing being passing.
OA,
Agree that some version will likely pass. It is unlikely that the Dems will nail their own wunderkind.
Unfortunately, the CBO keeps exposing that Obama's savings claims don't add up
There was a high volume the day of the low odds. The price is now back up to 32. As other commenters say, I do wonder if Dems will cut off their now to spite their face. One thing Kennedy learned by error is that sometimes you have to take what you can get. And there is now the sentiment to have something passed called the Kennedy bill. I doubt, though, that newly elected Dems will vote for something that will risk their reelection. So I see a bill before the end of the year which is very watered down. And perhaps an admission by Obama that the number of Americans uninsured because of low income is closer to 10 million rather than 50 million.
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