Thursday, May 14, 2009

Baltic Dry Index Jumps Another 100 Points Today

The Baltic Dry Index closed up higher today by 100 points, reaching a 7-month high of 2,432 (see chart above).


At 5/14/2009 5:55 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Is there a way to subscribe to all posts except Baltic Dry and Emerging Markets updates?

I got my own chart ticker, thanks.

At 5/14/2009 6:39 PM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

The Baltic Index may be a leading indicator this time. Consequently, there may be a 50% retracement of the rally within two or three months. So, SPX may fall to roughly 800 in Jul or Aug, which may be an opportunity to buy again.

Also, I may add, I doubt there are any reliable technical indicators (which aren't much better than voodoo) to predict the stock market, although my remaining indicator is still reliable, at least so far.

At 5/15/2009 9:10 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hate to monsantoize the wilting green shoots. Not. Domestic rail traffic is not keeping up with record Chinese iron ore imports. Duh!

At 5/15/2009 10:56 AM, Blogger Alan said...

Anonymous @ 9:10 AM,

The disparity between the Iron Ore imports and the Rail traffic make sense when you look at the way in which companies have optimized their supply chains. The rail traffic didn't pull back until pretty much into the 4th quarter - yet, if you look at consumer spending/purchasing it had dropped much earlier - leading to the high inventories that had to be cut down prior to companies wanting to ship and stock again. Perhaps they were hoping a big holiday season would pull them out, but I suspect they hadn't yet adjusted their stock levels to meet the huge drop off, and even now they are probably being cautious to see where consumer spending goes in Q2.

Manufacturers, however, are looking at the indicators from those inventories (huge draw downs in many industries, consumer spending has had a moderate rebound, while some spending/purchasing is unsustainable in the long term, for things such as autos). Looking at those things, it makes sense to start making things and preparing that part of the pipeline.

Oh, yeah.. Duh!

At 5/15/2009 5:56 PM, Blogger bobble said...

does this indicate an increase in commodity demand? or, is it simply chinese government stimulus money coupled with a change from internal to external sourcing due to price cuts?

"China, the world’s biggest iron-ore consumer, imported a record 57 million metric tons in April. Stockpiles in the country have climbed 16 percent this year. China’s government is spending 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) to support the economy after first-quarter growth was the slowest this decade.

[Iron ore] price drops are making imported ore competitive against domestic supplies, spurring stockpiling . . . "



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