Wednesday, March 18, 2009

Depression Odds: 50% in Late Feb. to 21% Today

Intrade Odds of a U.S. Depression before the end of 2009 (US GDP to decline by 10.0% or more from its peak value between Q4 2008 and Q4 2009): 21%, see chart above.


At 3/18/2009 10:28 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

You also did this w/ the likelihood of recession and...........

At 3/19/2009 2:36 AM, Blogger KO said...

Wow, people are betting on a 10% decline in GDP from Q4 2008 to Q4 2009? Do they realize government is part of GDP? With all the government spending that means the private sector falls off a cliff.

Gotta hope it's not Al Qaeda taking that side of the trade.


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