Depression Odds: 50% in Late Feb. to 21% Today
Intrade Odds of a U.S. Depression before the end of 2009 (US GDP to decline by 10.0% or more from its peak value between Q4 2008 and Q4 2009): 21%, see chart above. CARPE DIEM
Professor Mark J. Perry's Blog for Economics and Finance
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
Intrade Odds of a U.S. Depression before the end of 2009 (US GDP to decline by 10.0% or more from its peak value between Q4 2008 and Q4 2009): 21%, see chart above. About Me
- Name: Mark J. Perry
- Location: Washington, D.C., United States
Dr. Mark J. Perry is a professor of economics and finance in the School of Management at the Flint campus of the University of Michigan. Perry holds two graduate degrees in economics (M.A. and Ph.D.) from George Mason University near Washington, D.C. In addition, he holds an MBA degree in finance from the Curtis L. Carlson School of Management at the University of Minnesota. In addition to a faculty appointment at the University of Michigan-Flint, Perry is also a visiting scholar at The American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C.
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- Beneath Gloom, Signs of a New Economic Vibrancy
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2 Comments:
You also did this w/ the likelihood of recession and...........
Wow, people are betting on a 10% decline in GDP from Q4 2008 to Q4 2009? Do they realize government is part of GDP? With all the government spending that means the private sector falls off a cliff.
Gotta hope it's not Al Qaeda taking that side of the trade.
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