Monday, March 02, 2009

Bank Deliquency Rates for 2008:QIV

The Federal Reserve recently released bank data for the fourth quarter of 2008 on bank loan delinquency rates and bank loan charge-off rates. The graph above shows quarterly delinquency rates for agriculture loans and business loans back to 1987 through the fourth quarter of 2008. Note that the delinquency rates in 2008:Q4 for ag and business loans were only about half the rates during the 2001 recession, and about 1/3 the rates during the 1990-1991 recession.

The chart below shows delinquency rates for all loans at all commercial banks, and although the deliquent loan rate in 2008 was higher than the 2001 recession, it's still 1.55% lower than the peak during the 1990-1991 recesssion (4.59% vs. 6.14%).


At 3/03/2009 1:08 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

It could also have to do with banks being less willing to recognize losses for fear of frightening counterparties.

Perhaps the cheapest bailout would have been to increase SBA guarantees??

At 3/03/2009 1:44 AM, Blogger Unknown said...

Threshold of loss is a cardinal measure and not an ordinal measure that is the essential flaw of this study

At 3/03/2009 10:37 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

While true that overall comm'l delinquencies are still 1.55% below previous peak, the line is almost vertical in upward trajectory.

At 3/03/2009 11:55 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Residential real estate loan delinquencies are at all-time highs. Commercial real estate loan delinquencies have quintupled in 2 years. Consumer credit card loan delinquencies are at all time highs.


My guess: The all-time loan delinquency rate of 6.14% set in 1991 will be taken out by Q3.09.


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